干旱区研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 849-962.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.06.01

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于三维识别的中国干旱事件演变特征分析

吕潇雨1(),郭浩1(),孟翔晨1,包安明2,田芸菲1,朱丽1   

  1. 1.曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,山东 日照 276826
    2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-11 修回日期:2023-02-20 出版日期:2023-06-15 发布日期:2023-06-21
  • 通讯作者: 郭浩. E-mail: guohao@qfnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:吕潇雨(1999-),女,硕士,主要从事气象干旱监测的研究. E-mail: lvxiaoyu@qfnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42001363);山东省高校优秀青年创新团队项目(2022KJ178);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021QD055)

Characterization of the evolution of drought events in China based on 3D identification

LYU Xiaoyu1(),GUO Hao1(),MENG Xiangchen1,BAO Anming2,TIAN Yunfei1,ZHU Li1   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China
    2. Xinjing Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2022-10-11 Revised:2023-02-20 Online:2023-06-15 Published:2023-06-21

摘要:

中国是世界上受干旱影响最严重的国家之一,干旱频发给我国经济社会发展和生态环境造成严重影响。为分析近40 a干旱事件的时空特征,本文结合三维聚类算法,从干旱事件时空联动的本质出发,识别中国1981—2020年间干旱事件并定量分析干旱事件的时空动态演变过程。主要结论如下:三维聚类算法能有效识别干旱事件及其动态变化过程。中国1981—2020年间发生持续2个月及以上的干旱事件102场,空间上,干旱事件空间轨迹倾向于自东向西发展;时间上,干旱事件时间重叠度较高,长历时干旱多具有多峰特点。此外,覆盖范围广且严重度高的干旱事件集中发生于2005—2010年。本文结论有助于发现中国干旱事件的时空演化规律,为我国干旱监测和干旱风险管理提供科学参考。

关键词: 三维聚类算法, 干旱事件, 三维演变特征, 动态演变, SPEI, 中国

Abstract:

Globally, China is one of the country’s most frequently and severely affected by drought. These frequent drought events have subsequently caused serious economic, social development, and ecological environment losses. Drought simultaneously leads to alterations in both space and time, and this paper aims to identify drought events and quantify their spatial and temporal dynamic evolution using a three-dimensional clustering algorithm for mainland China, from 1981-2020. The three-dimensional clustering algorithm can be used to effectively identify drought events and describe their dynamic processes. From 1981-2020 there were 102 drought events lasting 2 months or more in mainland China. Spatially, the trajectory of drought events was found to show a tendency to develop from east to west. Temporally, there are high time overlaps between different drought events. In addition, drought events with wide coverage and high severity were concentrated in the period from 2005-2010. The findings of this paper will help to elucidate the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of drought events and provide scientific references for drought monitoring and drought risk management in mainland China.

Key words: three-dimensional clustering algorithm, drought event, three-dimensional evolutionary features, dynamic evolution, SPEI, China