干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 891-895.

• 气候及预报方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

集合预报方法在新疆大降水中的试验

 贾丽红1,2, 汤浩2, 王江2, 张云惠2   

    1. 中国气象局 乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
    2. 新疆气象台,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2010-07-24 修回日期:2010-10-22 出版日期:2011-09-15 发布日期:2011-10-16
  • 作者简介:贾丽红(1966-),女,河北人,主要从事天气预报区域模式研究及气象新技术推广应用. E-mail:jlhpxs@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(40975097)和中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2009005)

Experimental Study on Ensemble Forecast in Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Xinjiang

 JIA  Li-Hong1,2, TANG  Hao2, WANG  Jiang2, ZHANG  Yun-Hui2   

    1. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    2. Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2010-07-24 Revised:2010-10-22 Online:2011-09-15 Published:2011-10-16

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被引次数

10

摘要： 采用多模式多物理参数化方案的集合预报方法，以GRAPES和WRF中尺度区域数值模式为基础，分别使用2个模式提供的多种物理过程参数化方案和积云参数化方案，通过敏感试验进行有效组合，形成了8个集合成员的集合预报系统。使用该系统对新疆2007年和2008年以降水为主的27场天气过程进行模拟试验，采用Ts评分和BS评分方法，对集合预报的24 h降水预报结果进行检验。结果表明：集合预报对新疆偏大的降水过程评分比较高；平均集合预报和控制预报都比实况降水偏大，但集合预报比控制预报的偏大程度要小，与实况更接近；集合预报降水在24 h内预报效果明显，在30 h内的降水有着比较好的参考意义。

关键词: 大降水, GRAPES模式, WRF模式, 集合预报, Ts评分, BS评分, 新疆

Abstract: Based on the mesoscale model GRAPES and WRF with multiple physical parameterization schemes and cumulus parameterization schemes, an ensemble forecast system is developed with eight combinational schemes after carrying out the sensitivity experiments. Twenty sever precipitation synoptic processes in Xinjiang in 2007 and 2008 were simulated using the ensemble forecast system, and the forecast of 24hour precipitation was tested with Ts and BS. The results reveal that the score of ensemble forecast in forecasting heavy precipitation in Xinjiang was high, the forecasted precipitation was higher than the observed precipitation, but the forecasted precipitation with ensemble forecast was lower than that with control forecast, and it was closer to the observed one. The effect of precipitation of ensemble forecast in 24 hours is superior to the others.

Key words: heavy rainfall, GRAPES model, WRF model, ensemble forecast, Ts, BS, Xinjiang

中图分类号: 

  • P456