河西走廊中部近53年降水变化及未来趋势预测

干旱区研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 146-150.

河西走廊中部近53年降水变化及未来趋势预测

刘洪兰¹, 白虎志², 张俊国³

1. 甘肃省张掖市气象局, 甘肃张掖 734000;
2. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 甘肃兰州 730020;
3. 张掖中学, 甘肃张掖 734000

收稿日期:2010-02-09 修回日期:2010-05-06 出版日期:2011-02-25 发布日期:2011-09-06
作者简介:刘洪兰(1967-),女,山东招远人,高级工程师,主要从事天气、气候变化和预测业务及科研工作.E-mail:gszylhl@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目 (40875046);中国气象局气候变化专项"西北极端干旱事件个例库及干旱监测指标数据集"(CCSF-09-14)共同资助

Change and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in the Central Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province in Recent 53 Years

LIU Hong-lan¹, BAI Hu-zhi², ZHANG Jun-guo³

1. Zhangye Meteorological Bureau, Zhangye 734000, Gansu Province, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
3. Zhangye High School, Zhangye 734000, Gansu Province, China

Received:2010-02-09 Revised:2010-05-06 Published:2011-02-25 Online:2011-09-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用位于河西走廊中部的6个气象站1957-2009年的降水资料,分析近53年降水量年际年代际变化、季节变化、空间变化、各月变化。在分析降水量历史演变的基础上,利用均生函数方法建立了河西走廊中部降水量的预测模型。结果表明:近53年该地区降水量以4.75 mm/10 a的速度在递增,20世纪80-90年代前期降水量出现下降,90年代后期又开始缓慢增加,意味着该地区气候由暖干向暖湿转变。未来15年降水量呈缓慢上升趋势。

关键词: 降水量, 预测模型, 空间变化, 气温, 河西走廊

Abstract: This paper analyzes mainly the decadal, annual, seasonal, monthly and spatial changes of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor based on the recent 53-year precipitation data observed by 6 weather stations in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The mean generating function was used to develop the prediction model of precipitation after analyzing the historical evolution of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor. The results show that the annual precipitation was increased by 4.75 mm/10 a in recent 53 years, it was decreased during the period from the end-1980s to the early-1990s, but increased slowly from the late-1990s, which reveals that the climate in the central Hexi Corridor changed from the warming-drying trend to the warming-wetting trend. It was predicted that the annual precipitation will be in a slow increase trend in next 15 years.

Key words: precipitation, prediction model, spatial change, temperature, Hexi Corridor

中图分类号:

P426.6

刘洪兰, 白虎志, 张俊国. 河西走廊中部近53年降水变化及未来趋势预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2011, 28(1): 146-150.

LIU Hong-lan, BAI Hu-zhi, ZHANG Jun-guo. Change and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in the Central Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province in Recent 53 Years[J]. , 2011, 28(1): 146-150.

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