未来气候变化对特有物种沙生柽柳分布格局的影响及其保护启示

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2018.01.19

干旱区研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 150-155.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.01.19

未来气候变化对特有物种沙生柽柳分布格局的影响及其保护启示

苏志豪¹, 潘伯荣¹, 卓立², 李文军¹, 刘会良¹, 姜小龙³, 闫德民⁴

1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所干旱区生物地理与生物资源重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2.新疆师范大学图书馆, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
3.中国科学院上海辰山植物科学研究中心/上海辰山植物园, 上海 201602;
4.南京森林警察学院火烧迹地植被恢复与管理重点实验室, 江苏南京 210023

收稿日期:2017-04-21 修回日期:2017-07-17 出版日期:2018-01-15 发布日期:2025-11-16
作者简介:苏志豪(1981-),男,副研究员,从事植物遗传保育研究工作.E-mail:suzh@ms.xjb.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(31770703, 31400561,31600447); 中国科学院“西部青年学者”项目(2016-QNXZ-B-16); 江苏省自然基金项目(BK20140501)资助

Impact of Future Climate Change on Distribution Pattern of Tamarix taklamakanensis and Its Conservation Revelation

SU Zhi-hao¹, PAN Bo-rong¹, ZHUO Li², LI Wen-jun¹, LIU Hui-liang¹, JIANG Xiao-long³, YAN De-min⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Biogeography and Bioresources in Arid Land,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;
2. Library,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830000,Xinjiang,China;
3. Shanghai Chenshan Plant Science Research Center/Shanghai Chenshan Botanical Garden,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shanghai 201602,China;
4. Key Laboratory of Vegetation Regeneration and Management of Burned Forest,Nanjing Forest Police College,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China

Received:2017-04-21 Revised:2017-07-17 Published:2018-01-15 Online:2025-11-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为预测未来气候变化对我国特有珍稀植物沙生柽柳(Tamarix taklamakanensis)潜在适宜分布的影响,选用过去气候(1961—1990年)、2050年气候、2070年气候3种情景,利用Maxent模型模拟沙生柽柳潜在分布的动态变化。结果表明:① 沙生柽柳的适宜潜在分布区主要集中在我国塔里木盆地、吐鲁番盆地、库姆塔格沙漠、内蒙古阿拉善荒漠的西北部,最适宜的潜在分布区位于塔里木盆地腹地及盆地东部的库木塔格沙漠地区;② 与过去潜在分布范围相比,未来2050年和2070年气候背景下,沙生柽柳的最适宜潜在分布范围均有萎缩趋势;③ 影响沙生柽柳潜在地理分布的主要气候因子为最干季降水量、年降水量、年平均气温、最暖季降水量。

关键词: 沙生柽柳(Tamarix taklamakanensis), 气候变化, 分布格局, 潜在分布区, 动态变化

Abstract: In order to predict the impact of future climate change on the potential suitable distribution of Tamarix taklamakanensis,a rare endemic plant species in China,the climate situations in the past (1961-1990),2050 and 2070 were selected to simulate the dynamic change of the distribution of T. taklamakanensis in the Kumtag Desert using the Maxent model. The research results are as follows:① The suitable distribution areas of T. taklamakanensis would be the Tarim Basin,Turpan Basin,Kumtag Desert,and northwest region of the Alxa Desert in Inner Mongolia,and the most suitable potential distribution area would be the Kumtag Deser in the hinterland and the eastern part of the Tarim Basin;② Compared with the past potential distribution of T. taklamakanensis, the most suitable potential distribution areas would be shrunk in both 2050 and 2070;③ The climatic factors affecting the potential distribution of T. taklamakanensis would be mainly the precipitation in the driest season,annual precipitation,annual temperature and precipitation in the warmest season.

Key words: Tamarix taklamakanensis, climate change, distribution pattern, suitable potential distribution, dynamic change

苏志豪, 潘伯荣, 卓立, 李文军, 刘会良, 姜小龙, 闫德民. 未来气候变化对特有物种沙生柽柳分布格局的影响及其保护启示[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(1): 150-155.

SU Zhi-hao, PAN Bo-rong, ZHUO Li, LI Wen-jun, LIU Hui-liang, JIANG Xiao-long, YAN De-min. Impact of Future Climate Change on Distribution Pattern of Tamarix taklamakanensis and Its Conservation Revelation[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018, 35(1): 150-155.

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未来气候变化对特有物种沙生柽柳分布格局的影响及其保护启示

Impact of Future Climate Change on Distribution Pattern of Tamarix taklamakanensis and Its Conservation Revelation

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