基于PLUS-InVEST模型的天山北坡生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.07.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用变化作为影响陆地生态系统碳储量的重要因素，研究两者间的关系对维持区域碳平衡和实现双碳目标具有重要意义。基于第三次新疆综合科学考察背景，分析天山北坡1990年、2000年、2010年、2020年土地利用变化与碳储量的定量关系，结合PLUS和InVEST模型，模拟在历史趋势、水资源保护和经济发展3种情景下2030年区域碳储量的空间格局。结果表明：（1）草地和裸地是天山北坡主要土地覆被类型，1990—2020年耕地、林地、水域、建设用地和湿地面积增加，耕地面积增加最多，其余土地利用类型面积减少，草地减少最多。（2） 1990—2020年天山北坡碳储量呈“先升后降”趋势，草地、裸地、耕地和林地间的转化是总碳储量变化的主要成因。（3） 3种情景下碳储量均低于2020年水平，经济发展情景减幅最为显著，草地减少、裸地增加是碳损失的主要原因。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 碳储量, PLUS模型, InVEST模型, 天山北坡

Abstract:

As land use change is a critical factor affecting carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, investigating the correlations between the two is of great significance for maintaining the regional carbon balance and achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the Third Comprehensive Scientific Expedition of Xinjiang, this study analyzes the quantitative relationship between land use change and carbon storage on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It also simulates the probable spatial distribution of regional carbon storage in 2030 under the three scenarios of historical trend, water resource conservation, and economic development by combining the PLUS and InVEST models. The findings revealed the following: (1) Grassland and barren constitute the main land cover types on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains; the area of cropland, forest, construction land, and wetland, as well as water, increased between 1990 and 2020; cropland increased most significantly, while the others decreased, most considerably in grassland. (2) Carbon storage on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains first enhanced and then declined from 1990 to 2020, with conversions among the grassland, barren, cropland, and forest being the primary drivers of alterations in total carbon storage. (3) The carbon storage under all three scenarios was lower than the 2020 level, with the most remarkable reduction in the economic development scenario. A decrease in grassland and an increase in barren are the leading causes of carbon loss.

Key words: land use change, carbon storage, PLUS model, InVEST model, northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

张顺鑫, 吴子豪, 闫庆武, 李桂娥, 牟守国. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的天山北坡生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(7): 1228-1237.

ZHANG Shunxin, WU Zihao, YAN Qingwu, LI Gui’e, MU Shouguo. Spatiotemporal changes in the ecosystem carbon storage on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and simulations based on the PLUS-InVEST model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(7): 1228-1237.

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数据类型	数据名称	分辨率	数据来源
地形	DEM	30 m	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
地形	坡度	30 m	在ArcGIS中基于DEM数据，采用“坡度”工具获取
气候	年平均气温	1 km	国家青藏高原科学数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn）
	年平均降水	1 km	国家青藏高原科学数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn）
	NDVI	30 m	科学数据银行（https://www.scidb.cn）
经济	人口密度	1 km	WorldPop数据集（https://hub.worldpop.org）
经济	GDP	1 km	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn)
区位	到高速公路的距离	30 m	OSM数据经ArcGIS“欧氏距离”工具获取（https://www.openstreetmap.org）
	到国道的距离
	到省道的距离
	到县道的距离
	到铁路的距离
	到河流的距离
土地利用数据			中国年度土地覆盖数据集（https://zenodo.org）

土地利用类型	地上碳密度	地下碳密度	土壤碳密度	死亡有机物碳密度
耕地	51.79	61.49	7073.94	124.00
林地	551.67	162.86	9956.53	248.00
灌木	78.30	51.42	5895.74	80.00
草地	8.71	76.58	6975.63	22.00
水域	11.41	8.10	0.00	0.00
冰川/积雪	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
裸地	8.10	15.46	3559.78	0.00
建设用地	40.38	25.90	0.00	0.00
湿地	33.01	26.39	19640.14	0.00

土地利用类型	1990年	2000年	2010年	2020年	土地利用类型	1990年	2000年	2010年	2020年
耕地	10442.75	11510.24	15543.89	16453.72	冰川/积雪	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
林地	2921.97	3667.97	4114.96	4492.31	裸地	22373.26	22179.95	20260.68	21359.94
灌木	0.30	0.04	0.02	0.18	建设用地	1.53	3.71	7.39	10.85
草地	46347.76	44970.54	43872.70	40359.76	湿地	0.87	0.84	0.85	1.06
水域	2.69	3.33	3.92	3.93	总计	82091.13	82336.62	83804.41	82681.75

土地利用类型	历史趋势情景	水资源保护情景	经济发展情景
耕地	23376.13	23360.71	23357.68
林地	4433.79	4566.95	4433.28
灌木	0.36	0.45	0.44
草地	52969.71	52790.99	52898.10
水域	2019.50	2212.21	2013.50
冰川/积雪	2196.84	2118.95	2202.76
裸地	62061.04	61945.84	61998.42
建设用地	2078.90	2140.16	2232.11
湿地	0.64	0.64	0.64

土地利用类型	历史趋势情景	变化（较2020年）	水资源保护情景	变化（较2020年）	经济发展情景	变化（较2020年）
耕地	17090.80	637.09	17079.53	625.81	17077.31	623.59
林地	4841.28	348.96	4986.68	494.37	4840.72	348.41
灌木	0.22	0.05	0.28	0.10	0.27	0.09
草地	37518.04	-2841.72	37391.45	-2968.31	37467.32	-2892.44
水域	3.94	0.01	4.32	0.38	3.93	0.00
冰川/积雪	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
裸地	22238.60	878.67	22197.32	837.39	22216.16	856.23
建设用地	13.78	2.93	14.18	3.34	14.79	3.95
湿地	1.26	0.20	1.26	0.20	1.26	0.20
总计	81707.92	-973.81	81675.02	-1006.72	81621.76	-1059.97