新疆气候干湿变化特征及其影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.12.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于新疆56个气象站1961—2019年逐日地面观测数据，分析了过去59 a间新疆干湿变化特征及其成因，主要结论如下：（1）新疆正经历显著的由干向湿的转变。在1961—2019年期间，区域平均干燥度指数（Aridity Index，AI）以0.01·(10a)^-1的速率上升（P < 0.01），并于1987年前后发生突变。全区呈显著上升趋势的站点占比为57.1%。（2） 1961—2019年间新疆年降水量以8.6 mm·(10a)^-1的速率显著增加，突变时间与AI突变时间一致。年参考作物蒸散量（reference evapotranspiration，ET₀）在1961—2019年可检测到显著的下降趋势，变化速率为-15.7 mm·(10a)^-1。但值得注意的是，年ET₀在1990年前后发生转变，1990年以前持续下降，1990年后转为波动上升。（3） ET₀的变化主要受风速与相对湿度两种气候因子的控制。在1961—2019年间，全区风速基本呈下降趋势，有接近一半站点的相对湿度也呈下降趋势，二者的共同作用导致新疆50%站点的ET₀显著下降。而ET₀在1990年前后的转变也是由于相对湿度和风速变化趋势在1990年前后的转变引起的。1990年左右，相对湿度由上升趋势转为下降趋势，风速则由下降趋势转为上升趋势。共同导致了ET₀在两个时期变化趋势的差别。该结论加深了对新疆干湿变化及其成因的认识，并对新疆水资源的合理开发利用具有一定参考价值。

关键词: 气候干湿变化, 干燥度指数, 蒸散量, 影响因素, 新疆

Abstract:

Based on daily observations from 56 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2019, this study analyzed dry-wet conditions, changes, and their underlying driving factors in Xinjiang. The main findings are as follows: (1) In the past 59 years, the Xinjiang climate has changed significantly from dry to wet, with the aridity index (AI) changing at a rate of 0.01·(10a)^-1 (P < 0.01). The number of stations with a significant upward trend of AI accounted for 57.1%. (2) The annual precipitation in Xinjiang increased significantly at a rate of 8.6 mm·(10a)^-1 from 1961 to 2019, consistent with the change in AI. Conversely, the annual reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) showed a significant decreasing trend at a rate of -15.7 mm·(10a)^-1. However, it is worth noting that ET₀ transitioned around 1990. ET₀ continued to decrease before 1990 and then switched to a fluctuating upward trend. (3) Wind speed and relative humidity primarily influenced ET₀ variation. Wind speed exhibited a consistent decreasing trend across the entire region, while approximately half of the stations observed a decline in relative humidity. The combined effect of these factors significantly decreased ET₀ at nearly 50% of the stations in Xinjiang. Moreover, trends in relative humidity from increasing to decreasing trends and wind speed from decreasing to increasing around 1990 contribute to the differences in ET₀ trends between the two periods. The conclusions achieved here provide valuable insights into understanding the dry-wet changes and their underlying driving factors in Xinjiang and have implications for the rational development and use of water resources in this region.

Key words: climate dry-wet changes, aridity index, evapotranspiration, driving factors, Xinjiang

董翰林, 王文婷, 谢云, 阿依达娜·叶斯那力, 江源天, 徐嘉淇. 新疆气候干湿变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(12): 1875-1884.

DONG Hanlin, WANG Wenting, XIE Yun, Aydana YESINALI, JIANG Yuantian, XU Jiaqi. Climate dry-wet conditions, changes, and their driving factors in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(12): 1875-1884.

图/表 7

图1

图2

图3

表1

基于M-K检验的新疆56个站点1961—2019年间不同变量的变化趋势(P=0.05)"

变量	上升趋势		下降趋势		倾向率/(10a)^-1
变量	比例/%	显著/%	比例/%	显著/%	倾向率/(10a)^-1
干燥度指数AI (0~1)	98.2	57.1	1.8	1.8	0.01^**
年降水量/mm	94.6	69.6	3.6	1.8	8.6^**
年潜在蒸散量/mm	32.1	16.1	67.9	50.0	-15.7^**
气温/℃	98.2	96.4	1.8	1.8	0.3^**
相对湿度/%	53.6	26.8	46.4	30.4	0.0
风速/(m $?$ s^-1)	14.3	7.1	85.7	75.0	-0.1^**
日照时数/h	25.0	8.9	75.0	53.6	-0.1^**

表1

图4

图5

图6

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