敦煌太阳总辐射多时间尺度变化特征及影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.12.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)以及M-K突变检验方法，基于敦煌市1971—2020年太阳总辐射、相对湿度、总云量和沙尘日数等气象资料，分析了敦煌市太阳总辐射演变的多时间尺度特征，探讨了影响敦煌市太阳辐射的关键气象因素。结果表明：（1） 1971—2020年敦煌市年太阳总辐射上升趋势显著，线性气候倾向率为49.6 MJ·m^-2·(10a)^-1，多年平均年辐射量为6354.0 MJ·m^-2，属于太阳能资源最丰富区。年辐射在1970年代最少，2010年代最大。敦煌市太阳辐射四季分明，辐射量夏季>春季>秋季>冬季，分别以32.5、13.4、2.9 MJ·m^-2·(10a)^-1和1.1 MJ·m^-2?(10a)^-1的速率增加。近50 a敦煌市太阳总辐射以2.9 a和7.1 a的年际变化和16.7 a的年代际变化占主导地位。（2）月太阳辐射变化呈“单峰型”，从3月开始急剧增加，5月达峰值，6月开始逐渐下降，12月达全年最低值。太阳总辐射小时分布呈单峰型，一天中最大值出现在12:00—13:00。（3）年、春季和夏季太阳辐射变化的突变时间为1997年、2000年和1982年。（4）影响敦煌太阳辐射的气象要素可归结为三个因子：大气透明度因子、光照因子和湿度因子，不同季节各气象因子与太阳辐射的相关性有所差异。

关键词: 太阳辐射, 变化特征, 集合经验模态方法, 突变检验, 气象要素, 敦煌

Abstract:

Using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the M-K mutation test, the multi-times cale characteristics of the evolution of total solar radiation in Dunhuang city were analyzed based on the meteorological data of total solar radiation, relative humidity, total cloudiness, and dust days in Dunhuang city between 1971 and 2020. The key meteorological factors influencing solar radiation in Dunhuang city were explored. The results show the following: (1) There was a significant upward trend of annual total solar radiation in Dunhuang city between 1971 and 2020, with a linear climate propensity rate of 49.6 MJ·m^-2·(10a)^-1, and the multiyear average annual radiation was 6354.0 MJ·m^-2, belonging to the area with the most abundant solar resources. The annual radiation was lowest in the 1970s and highest in the 2010s. Dunhuang has four distinct seasons of solar radiation, with radiation increasing at rates of 32.5, 13.4, 2.9, and 1.1 MJ·m^-2·(10a)^-1 in summer > spring > fall > winter, respectively. The total solar radiation in Dunhuang city in the last 50 years was dominated by interannual variations of 2.9 and 7.1 years and interdecadal variations of 16.7 years. (2) Monthly solar radiation varied in a “single-peak” pattern, with a sharp increase in March, a peak in May, a gradual decrease in June, and a yearly minimum in December. The hourly distribution of total solar radiation is monomodal, with the maximum occurring between 12:00 and 13:00 a.m. (3) The annual, spring, and summer solar radiation changes were abrupt in 1997, 2000, and 1982. (4) Meteorological factors affecting solar radiation at Dunhuang can be attributed to three factors: atmospheric transparency, illumination, and humidity, and the correlation between each meteorological factor and solar radiation varies according to the seasons.

Key words: solar radiation, variation characteristics, ensemble empirical mode method, mutation test, meteorological elements, Dunhuang City

王云鹏, 李红英, 姚玉璧, 李栋梁, 范琦玮, 刘香萍. 敦煌太阳总辐射多时间尺度变化特征及影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(12): 1885-1897.

WANG Yunpeng, LI Hongying, YAO Yubi, LI Dongliang, FAN Qiwei, LIU Xiangping. Multi-time scale change characteristics and influencing factors of total solar radiation in Dunhuang City[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(12): 1885-1897.

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EEMD分量	方差贡献率	与原序列相关系数	周期/a
IMF1	27.8%	0.668^**	2.9
IMF2	23.8%	0.300^**	7.1
IMF3	22.0%	0.433^**	16.7
IMF4	10.6%	0.250	33.3
趋势项(res)	15.9%	0.286^**	-

	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
1970s	-59.5	-73.5	-30.3	-7.0
1980s	-43.7	67.7	44.8	18.3
1990s	12.8	-13.2	-16.5	-9.4
2000s	-11.1	-30.7	-10.0	-8.0
2010s	101.5	49.7	12.0	6.1

	EEMD分量	方差贡献率	与原序列相关系数	周期/a
春季	IMF1	33.2%	0.701^**	3.1
	IMF2	17.3%	0.568^**	7.7
	IMF3	15.4%	0.322^**	11.1
	IMF4	10.6%	0.134	25.0
	res	23.6%	0.452^**	-
夏季	IMF1	28.9%	0.665^**	2.9
	IMF2	18.6%	0.239	7.1
	IMF3	21.8%	0.404^**	16.7
	IMF4	14.1%	0.230	25.0
	res	16.8%	0.206	-
秋季	IMF1	30.0%	0.508^**	3.4
	IMF2	28.5%	0.544^**	9.1
	IMF3	21.6%	0.400^**	16.7
	IMF4	12.2%	0.155	33.3
	res	7.7%	0.081	-
冬季	IMF1	34.5%	0.679^**	2.8
	IMF2	27.7%	0.635^**	5.3
	IMF3	24.8%	0.488^**	12.5
	IMF4	5.9%	0.040	33.3
	res	7.1%	0.107	-

气象要素	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	年
相对湿度	-0.38^**	-0.28^*	-0.25^*	-0.10	-0.25^*
沙尘日数	-0.45^***	-0.23^*	0.05	-0.13	-0.29^*
降水量	-0.01	-0.22	-0.42^**	-0.20	-0.17
总云量	-0.22	-0.16	-0.19	-0.32^*	0.01

成分	初始特征值			旋转载荷平方和
成分	总计	方差百分比	累计/%	总计	方差百分比	累计/%
一	3.952	49.572	49.572	3.849	48.212	48.212
二	2.123	20.327	69.899	2.054	19.827	68.039
三	1.044	12.674	82.573	1.025	12.234	80.273
四	0.961	7.641	90.214
五	0.652	6.561	96.775
六	0.232	3.225	100.000