河套平原太阳辐射变化特征及其与气象要素的相互影响

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据1961—2017年气候要素资料,采用Hybrid模型估算河套平原日值太阳辐射,并利用线性倾向估计、累积距平、M-K检验、小波分析、交叉小波等方法,分析河套平原地表太阳辐射变化特征,探究其与气象要素的相互关系。结果表明：（1）近57 a河套平原地面接收太阳辐射年平均值为6030.83 MJ·m^-2,以0.3 MJ·（10a）^-1的速率呈缓慢减少趋势。（2）季节特征显著,全年太阳辐射主要集中在夏季,冬季最少,春季辐射以8.59 MJ·（10a）^-1速率呈显著上升趋势,夏、秋季辐射均为略微下降趋势,冬季辐射以7.06 MJ·（10a）^-1速率呈显著下降趋势。（3）年突变点在1993年,春季突变点为1972年、1993年,夏季突变点为1967年、1997年,秋季突变发生于2014年,冬季突变于1984年。（4）河套平原年太阳辐射量振荡主周期为24 a,春夏季均以27 a为主周期,秋季为30 a,冬季辐射主周期为21 a。河套平原太阳辐射与气象要素均存在32 a的共振周期,日照时数与辐射的相关性最大,气温与气压次之,相对湿度与辐射的相关性较小。（5）气温与太阳辐射在1986—1991年,2001—2006年等多时间尺度上主要呈正相关关系。气压与太阳辐射在1976—1981年存在正相关关系。相对湿度与太阳辐射在8~16 a和16~32 a两个共振周期存在负相关。日照时数与太阳辐射存在显著正相关关系,分别在1973—1981年、1986—1995年、1997—2005年左右存在两者共振高值能量区。

关键词: 太阳辐射, 变化特征, 周期, 气象要素, 河套平原

Abstract:

Based on climatic element data from the Hetao Plain collected between 1961 and 2017, a hybrid model was used to estimate the daily solar radiation in the Hetao Plain. Using a trend method, cumulative anomalies, an M-K test, wavelet analysis, cross wavelets, and other methods, the characteristics of solar radiation changes in the Hetao Plain were analyzed. Concurrently, the relationship with meteorological elements was also assessed. In the past 57 years, the annual average solar radiation received at the ground level in the Hetao Plain was 6030.83 MJ·m^-2, which represents slow decrease at a rate of 0.3 MJ·(10a)^-1. Seasonal characteristics were significant; the annual solar radiation was mainly concentrated in the summer (2138 MJ·m^-2) and was at its lowest levels in winter (793 MJ·m^-2). Furthermore, spring radiation showed a significant upward trend at a rate of 8.59 MJ·(10a)^-1, whereas summer and autumn radiation showed a slight downward trend, and winter radiation showed a significant downward trend at a rate of 7.06 MJ·(10a)^-1. The annual solar radiation mutation point in the Hetao Plain were in 1993; 1972 and 1993 were the spring mutation points; 1967 and 1997 were the summer mutation points; 2014 was the autumn mutation point; and 1984 was the winter mutation point. Wavelet analysis results show that 24 years was the main cycle of annual solar radiation in the Hetao Plain; the main periods of radiation were 27 years for spring and summer, 30 years for autumn, and 21 years for winter. Both the solar radiation and meteorological elements in the Hetao Plain had a 32-year resonance period. The number of hours of sunshine had the highest correlation with radiation followed by temperature and air pressure, whereas the correlation between relative humidity and radiation was relatively low. Temperature and solar radiation were mainly positively correlated on multiple time scales, e.g., 1986-1991 and 2001-2006. There was a positive correlation between air pressure and solar radiation from 1976 to 1981. Relative humidity and solar radiation were negatively correlated with two resonant periods of 8-16 and 16-32 years. There is a significant positive correlation between sunshine hours and solar radiation, and there were resonance high-value energy regions in the following periods: 1973-1981, 1986-1995, and 1997-2005.

Key words: solar radiation, variation characteristics, period, meteorological elements, Hetao Plain

吴霞,姜志伟,蒙荣,李云飞,孙晓涵. 河套平原太阳辐射变化特征及其与气象要素的相互影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(1): 41-53.

WU Xia,JIANG Zhiwei,MENG Rong,LI Yunfei,SUN Xiaohan. Variation characteristics of solar radiation and the interaction with meteorological elements in the Hetao Plain[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 41-53.

图/表 15

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

图10

图11

图12

图13

图14

图15

参考文献 41

[1]	和清华, 谢云. 我国太阳总辐射气候学计算方法研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(2): 308-319.
	[He Qinghua, Xie Yun. Research on climatological calculation method of total solar radiation in my country[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(2): 308-319. ]
[2]	马金玉, 罗勇, 梁宏, 等. 中国近半个世纪地面太阳总辐射时空变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(2): 268-280.
	[Ma Jinyu, Luo Yong, Liang Hong, et al. Characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of total solar radiation on the ground in China in the past half century[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(2): 268-280. ]
[3]	赵海涵, 潘学标, 王紫文. 内蒙古中部地区总辐射日曝辐量计算方法研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2017, 38(7): 1786-1793.
	[Zhao Haihan, Pan Xuebiao, Wang Ziwen. Study on the calculation method of total daily radiation exposure in the central area of Inner Mongolia[J]. Acta Energiae Sinica, 2017, 38(7): 1786-1793. ]
[4]	申彦波. 我国太阳能资源评估方法研究进展[J]. 气象科技进展, 2017, 7(1): 77-84.
	[Shen Yanbo. Research progress of solar resource assessment methods in my country[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2017, 7(1): 77-84. ]
[5]	何萍, 崔梅艳, 李矜霄, 等. 昆明市太阳辐射变化特征及影响因子分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(11): 1793-1801. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.11.014
	[He Ping, Cui Meiyan, Li Jinxiao, et al. Analysis of the characteristics and influencing factors of solar radiation changes in Kunming[J]. Progress in Geographical Sciences, 2019, 38(11): 1793-1801. ] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.11.014
[6]	周勇. 逐日太阳辐射估算模型及室外计算辐射研究[D]. 西安: 西安建筑科技大学, 2019.
	[Zhou Yong. Daily Solar Radiation Estimation Model and Outdoor Calculation Radiation Research[D]. Xi’an: Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, 2019. ]
[7]	李茂芬, 李玉萍, 郭澎涛, 等. 逐日太阳总辐射估算方法研究进展[J]. 热带作物学报, 2015, 36(9): 1726-1732.
	[Li Maofen, Li Yuping, Guo Pengtao, et al. Progress in estimating daily total solar radiation[J]. Acta Tropical Crops, 2015, 36(9): 1726-1732. ]
[8]	左大康, 王懿贤, 陈建绥. 中国地区太阳总輻射的空間分布特征[J]. 气象学报, 1963, 33(1): 78-96.
	[Zuo Dakang, Wang Yixian, Chen Jiansui. Spatial distribution characteristics of total solar radiation in China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1963, 33(1): 78-96. ]
[9]	翁笃鸣. 试论总辐射的气候学计算方法[J]. 气象学报, 1964, 34(3): 304-315.
	[Weng Duming. Discussion on climatological calculation method of total radiation[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1964, 34(3): 304-315. ]
[10]	周秉荣, 李凤霞, 颜亮东, 等. 青海省太阳总辐射估算模型研究[J]. 中国农业气象, 2011, 32(4): 495-499.
	[Zhou Bingrong, Li Fengxia, Yan Liangdong, et al. Research on the estimation model of total solar radiation in Qinghai Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Meteorology, 2011, 32(4): 495-499. ]
[11]	Fariba Besharat, Ali A Dehghan, Ahmad R Faghih. Empirical models for estimating global solar radiation: A review and case study[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2013, 21(21): 798-821. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.12.043
[12]	崔日鲜. 山东省太阳总辐射的时空变化特征分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(10): 1780-1791.
	[Cui Rixian. Analysis of the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of total solar radiation in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(10): 1780-1791. ]
[13]	邹玲. 中国大陆地区地表太阳辐射估算及其时空变化分析[D]. 武汉: 武汉大学, 2017.
	[Zou Ling. Estimation of Surface Solar Radiation in Mainland China and Analysis of Its Temporal and Spatial Changes[D]. Wuhan: Wuhan University, 2017. ]
[14]	Xia X. A closer looking at dimming and brightening in China during 1961-2005[J]. Annales Geophysicae, 2010, 28(236): 1121-1132. doi: 10.5194/angeo-28-1121-2010
[15]	陈中钰, 吕结. 近44年四川太阳辐射时空变化特征[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2018, 38(3): 56-60.
	[Chen Zhongyu, Lyu Jie. The characteristics of temporal and spatial changes of solar radiation in Sichuan in the past 44 years[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2018, 38(3): 56-60. ]
[16]	许建明, 何金海, 阎凤霞. 1961—2007年西北地区地面太阳辐射长期变化特征研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(1): 89-96.
	[Xu Jianming, He Jinhai, Yan Fengxia. Study on the characteristics of long-term changes in surface solar radiation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2007[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(1): 89-96. ]
[17]	李小军, 辛晓洲, 彭志晴. 2003—2012年中国地表太阳辐射时空变化及其影响因子[J]. 太阳能学报, 2017, 38(11): 3057-3066.
	[Li Xiaojun, Xin Xiaozhou, Peng Zhiqing. Spatial-temporal variation of solar radiation on China’s surface and its influencing factors from 2003 to 2012[J]. Acta Energiae Sinica, 2017, 38(11): 3057-3066. ]
[18]	李晓文, 李维亮, 周秀骥. 中国近30 a太阳辐射状况研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 1998, 9(1): 25-32.
	[Li Xiaowen, Li Weiliang, Zhou Xiuji. Research on China’s solar radiation in the past 30 years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1998, 9(1): 25-32. ]
[19]	马金玉, 罗勇, 申彦波, 等. 近50年中国太阳总辐射长期变化趋势[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2012, 42(10): 1597-1608.
	[Ma Jinyu, Luo Yong, Shen Yanbo, et al. Long-term changes in total solar radiation in China in the past 50 years[J]. Science China: Earth Sciences, 2012, 42(10): 1597-1608. ]
[20]	齐月, 房世波, 周文佐. 近50年来中国地面太阳辐射变化及其空间分布[J]. 生态学报, 2014, 34(24): 7444-7453.
	[Qi Yue, Fang Shibo, Zhou Wenzuo. The changes and spatial distribution of ground solar radiation in China in the past 50 years[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(24): 7444-7453. ]
[21]	Yang Kun, Huang G W, Tamai N. A hybrid model for estimating global solar radiation[J]. Solar Energy, 2001, 70(1): 13-22. doi: 10.1016/S0038-092X(00)00121-3
[22]	Christian A Gueymard. Direct solar transmittance and irradiance predictions with broadband models. Part I: detailed theoretical performance assessment[J]. Solar Energy, 2003, 74(5): 355-379. doi: 10.1016/S0038-092X(03)00195-6
[23]	Christian A Gueymard. Direct solar transmittance and irradiance predictions with broadband models. Part II: validation with high-quality measurements[J]. Solar Energy, 2003, 74(5): 381-395. doi: 10.1016/S0038-092X(03)00196-8
[24]	Madkour M A, El-Metwally M, Hamed A B. Comparative study on different models for estimation of direct normal irradiance (DNI) over Egypt atmosphere[J]. Renewable Energy, 2005, 31(3): 361-382. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2005.03.009
[25]	Paulescu M, Schlett Z. Performance assessment of global solar irradiation models under Romanian climate[J]. Renewable Energy, 2003, 29(5): 767-777. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2003.09.011
[26]	Yang Kun, He Jie, Tang Wenjun, et al. On downward shortwave and longwave radiations over high altitude regions: Observation and modeling in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2009, 150(1): 38-46. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.08.004
[27]	Yang Kun, Koike Toshio, Ye Baisheng. Improving estimation of hourly, daily, and monthly solar radiation by importing global data sets[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2006, 137(1): 43-55. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.02.001
[28]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 第二版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
	[Wei Fengying. Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. 2nd Ed. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2007. ]
[29]	黎清霞, 何艳虎, 李佩怡. 澜沧江流域下游主要水文气象要素变化特征[J]. 水力发电, 2018, 44(1): 5-8, 72.
	[Li Qingxia, He Yanhu, Li Peiyi. Change characteristics of main hydrometeorological elements in the lower reaches of Lancang River Basin[J]. Hydropower, 2018, 44(1): 5-8, 72. ]
[30]	彭玉华. 小波变换与工程应用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2002: 2-12.
	[Peng Yuhua. Wavelet Transform and Engineering Application[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2002: 2-12. ]
[31]	胡增, 臻石伟. 子波变换在大气科学中的应用研究[J]. 大气科学, 1997, 21(1): 59-73.
	[Hu Zeng, Zhen Shiwei. The application research of wavelet transform in atmospheric sciences[J]. Atmospheric Sciences, 1997, 21(1): 59-73. ]
[32]	余丹丹, 张韧, 洪梅, 等. 基于交叉小波与小波相干的西太平洋副高与东亚夏季风系统的关联性分析[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2007, 30(6): 755-769.
	[Yu Dandan, Zhang Ren, Hong Mei, et al. Analysis of the correlation between the West Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system based on cross wavelet and wavelet coherence[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2007, 30(6): 755-769. ]
[33]	Lonnie Hudgins. Bivariate wavelet analysis of Asia Monsoon and ENSO[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 1996, 13(3): 299-312. doi: 10.1007/BF02656848
[34]	Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2004, 11(40): 561-566. doi: 10.5194/npg-11-561-2004
[35]	王燕鑫, 李瑞平, 李夏子. 河套灌区不同土地类型生长季蒸散发量估算及其变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37(2): 364-373.
	[Wang Yanxin, Li Ruiping, Li Xiazi. Estimation and change characteristics of evapotranspiration during the growing season of different land types in Hetao Irrigation District[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(2): 364-373. ]
[36]	胡亚男, 李兴华, 郝玉珠. 内蒙古太阳能资源时空分布特征与评估研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2019, 33(12): 132-138.
	[Hu Yanan, Li Xinghua, Hao Yuzhu. Study on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and evaluation of solar energy resources in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2019, 33(12): 132-138. ]
[37]	刘维成, 张强, 傅朝. 近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(6): 1533-1545.
	[Liu Weicheng, Zhang Qiang, Fu Zhao. Variation characteristics of precipitation and its affecting factors in Northwest China over the past 55 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017, 36(6): 1533-1545. ]
[38]	马玉峰, 李喜仓, 宋进华, 等. 内蒙古自治区太阳总辐射的气候学计算及其时空分布特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2013, 29(6): 102-109.
	[Ma Yufeng, Li Xicang, Song Jinhua, et al. Climatological calculation of total solar radiation and its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2013, 29(6): 102-109. ]
[39]	陈少勇, 邢晓宾, 张康林, 等. 中国西北地区太阳总辐射的气候特征[J]. 资源科学, 2010, 32(8): 1444-1451.
	[Chen Shaoyong, Xing Xiaobin, Zhang Kanglin, et al. Climatic characteristics of total solar radiation in Northwest China[J]. Resources Science, 2010, 32(8): 1444-1451. ]
[40]	申彦波, 赵东, 祝昌汉, 等. 近50年来鄂尔多斯地面太阳辐射的变化及与相关气象要素的联系[J]. 高原气象, 2009, 28(4): 786-794.
	[Shen Yanbo, Zhao Dong, Zhu Changhan, et al. Changes of surface solar radiation in Ordos in the past 50 years and its relationship with relevant meteorological elements[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2009, 28(4): 786-794. ]
[41]	陈志青, 邵天杰, 赵景波, 等. 内蒙古地区近地面臭氧浓度时空分异及主导气象因子探讨[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37(6): 1504-1512.
	[Chen Zhiqing, Shao Tianjie, Zhao Jingbo, et al. Study on the temporal and spatial differentiation of surface ozone concentration and dominant meteorological factors in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(6): 1504-1512. ]