中国北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变与情景模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究脆弱区生境质量变化过程及未来情景格局对于研究区生态环境科学保护具有重要意义。本研究基于土地利用数据、FLUS-InVEST模型及空间自相关方法，分析中国北方农牧交错带2000—2020年生境质量时空格局，并对2040年生境质量进行多情景模拟。结果表明：（1）草地是研究区的主要土地类型，占比超过41%。2000—2020年研究区耕地变化最为显著，面积减少10157 km²，林地和建设用地面积有所增加。（2）研究区东南边界生境质量相对较高；2000—2020年平均生境质量变化不大，但生境质量较低等级和较高等级的面积分别增加2281 km²和1375 km²，退化度较高的研究区则呈现为点状集中分布在部分建设用地上。（3） 2040年各情景下生境质量呈现出向好趋势，但生态保护情景下生境质量提升最为显著，较高等级面积较2020年增加2514 km²。建议未来土地利用规划和生态环境保护过程中，需重点关注内蒙古东南部、河北北部等生境质量低的区域。

关键词: 生境质量, 北方农牧交错带, 土地利用, 时空格局

Abstract:

The agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is a typical ecologically vulnerable region. It is important to explore the spatiotemporal change in habitat quality for the scientific protection of the ecology and environment. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of habitat quality during the period 2000-2020, and simulated the future land use and habitat quality under various scenarios until 2040, based on the land-use data, FLUS-InVEST model, and spatial autocorrelation method. The results showed that (1) Grassland was the main land-use type in the region, accounting for more than 41% of land use. The cultivated land area accounted for more than 32% and the forest land area accounted for more than 16%. During the 2000-2020 period, the cultivated land changed the most, decreasin by 10157 km², where the unused land changed the least with an area reduction of 771 km². The areas of grassland and construction land had increased. (2) The habitat quality in the southeast boundary of the region was relatively high. From 2000 to 2020, the average habitat quality index changed from 0.498 to 0.494, indicating a slight decrease. The area with low habitat quality increased by 2281 km² and that with high grade habitat increased by 1375 km². The areas with a high degree of degradation showed a point distribution and were mainly concentrated in some construction land. (3) In 2040, the habitat quality is projected to improve in each scenario, but the habitat quality will improve the most in the ecological protection scenario. The area of high grade habitat increased by 2514 km² relative to that in 2020. In the trend development scenario, the relatively low ecological quality area would be reduced by up to 162625 km²relative to that in 2020. The area under cultivation, grassland, and unused land under the trend development and economic development scenarios will not change. The area of forest land under the ecological protection scenario was the largest, being 18547 km² more than that under the trend development scenario. In light of these findings, it is suggested that in future land-use planning and ecological environmental protection, we should focus on the areas with low habitat quality in the southeast of Inner Mongolia and northern of Hebei.

Key words: habitat quality, the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China, land use, spatiotemporal pattern

张莹, 赵媛媛, 刘如龙, 王岳, 丁国栋. 中国北方农牧交错带生境质量时空演变与情景模拟[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(1): 154-165.

ZHANG Ying, ZHAO Yuanyuan, LIU Rulong, WANG Yue, DING Guodong. Spatiotemporal evolution and scenario simulation of habitat quality in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(1): 154-165.

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威胁源	权重	最大影响距离/km	衰退类型
耕地	0.21	2	线性衰退
城乡居民点	0.32	5	指数衰退
未利用地	0.32	10	线性衰退

土地利用类型	生境适宜度	敏感度
土地利用类型	生境适宜度	耕地	城乡居民点	未利用地
耕地	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3
林地	0.9	0.6	0.8	0.8
草地	0.5	0.5	0.55	0.6
水域	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.9
城乡居民点	0	0	0	5
未利用地	0	0	0	0

2000年	2020年
2000年	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
耕地	206085	6804	16922	810	5610	871
林地	3359	99784	4880	175	722	186
草地	13991	9789	263569	445	2874	2354
水域	852	178	340	9226	152	1185
建设用地	1226	170	323	37	11859	46
未利用地	1436	273	2873	288	537	35977

土地利用类型	2020年	2040年
土地利用类型	2020年	趋势发展	生态保护	经济发展	耕地保护
耕地	226956	223700	227286	223700	227146
林地	117012	100628	119175	104986	101452
草地	288918	306667	288756	306665	306665
水域	10983	10578	10985	10886	10968
建设用地	21756	26424	21791	21756	21761
未利用地	40619	38247	38251	38251	38252

生境质量	2020年	2040年
生境质量	2020年	趋势发展	生态保护	经济发展	耕地保护
低	62375	64671	60042	60007	60013
较低	144609	105034	107312	145490	107416
中等	380003	438444	423420	392848	439357
较高	24608	25162	27122	22523	23719
高	94649	72933	88348	85376	75739