干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 677-685.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.03.22

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

采煤与脆弱生态复合区生态安全评价——以山西为例

刘秀丽1,2, 郭丕斌3, 张勃4, 郭淑芬1, 贾毅2   

  1. 1.山西财经大学资源型经济转型协同创新中心,山西 太原 030006;
    2.忻州师范学院地理系,山西 忻州 034000;
    3.太原师范学院经济系,山西 太原 030619;
    4.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-14 修回日期:2017-11-23 出版日期:2018-05-15 发布日期:2025-11-17
  • 通讯作者: 郭丕斌. E-mail: guopb@nuc.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:刘秀丽(1982-),女,副教授,博士,研究方向为区域环境与资源开发. E-mail:lxl820113@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41561024);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(17YJA630025);山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(晋规办字[2016]2号);资源型经济转型协同创新中心科研专项基金项目(ZX2017202)资助

Evaluation on Ecological Security of Coal Mining and Fragile Ecological Compound Area:A Case Study in Shanxi Province

LIU Xiu-li1,2, GUO Pi-bin3, ZHANG Bo4, GUO Shu-fen1, JIA Yi2   

  1. 1. Cooperative Innovation Center for Transition of Resources-based Economies,Shanxi University of Finance & Economies, Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China;
    2. Department of Geography,Xinzhou Teachers University,Xinzhou 034000,Shanxi,China;
    3. Department of Economics,Taiyuan Normal University,Taiyuan 030619,Shanxi,China;
    4. College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China
  • Received:2017-08-14 Revised:2017-11-23 Published:2018-05-15 Online:2025-11-17

PDF (PC)

0

赞

摘要： 强烈人为活动与脆弱生态复合区的生态安全问题正逐步成为全球关注的焦点。基于能值分析的生态足迹模型和自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA),以山西省为案例区,对其2000—2020年生态安全状况进行动态评价和趋势预测。结果表明:① 2000—2015年,研究区人均能值生态承载力从1.48 hm2下降到1.12 hm2,人均能值生态足迹从5.92 hm2上升到13.08 hm2,生态赤字从-4.44 hm2增加到-11.96 hm2,生态压力指数由4.55增加到11.72,生态协调系数由1.19降到1.08,生态安全等级为较安全状态,生态经济系统发展潜力较大;② ARIMA模型预测显示,2016—2020年,研究区人均能值生态承载力从1.08 hm2下降到0.81 hm2,人均能值生态足迹从13.02 hm2上升到14.33 hm2,生态赤字从-11.94 hm2增加到-13.52 hm2,生态压力指数从12.05增加到17.71,生态安全等级由较安全变为极度不安全,预警等级由重警到巨警状态,生态安全问题亟待解决。

关键词: 能值, 生态足迹, 多样性指数, 生态安全, 可持续性, 山西

Abstract: The issues of ecological security in the areas with intense human activities and fragile ecology are becoming the focuses of global attention. In this paper,a case study on the ecological security in Shanxi Province,China during the period of 2000-2015 was carried out based on the emergy of ecological footprint,and the ecological security trend during the period from 2016 to 2020 was predicted using the ARIMA model.The results showed that the per capita emergy of ecological capacity in Shanxi Province was decreased from 1.48 hm2 to 1.12 hm2,but that of ecological footprint was increased from 5.92 hm2 to 13.08 hm2 during the period of 2000-2015.The ecological deficit was increased from -4.44 hm2 to -11.96 hm2.The ecological pressure index was increased from 4.55 to 11.72,and the ecological coordination coefficient was reduced from 1.19 to 1.08.The ecological security in Shanxi Province was safe during the period from 2000 to 2015.Based on the development capability of the ecological economic system,the ecological economic system in Shanxi Province had a great development potential from 2000 to 2015.The results predicted with the ARIMA model revealed that,during the period of 2016-2020,the per capita emergy of ecological capacity in Shanxi Province would be decreased from 1.08 hm2 to 0.81 hm2,but that of ecological footprint would be increased from 13.02 hm2 to 14.33 hm2.The ecological deficit in Shanxi Province would be increased from -11.94 hm2 to -13.52 hm2,and the ecological pressure index from 12.05 to 17.71,respectively.The ecological security in Shanxi Province would be extremely unsafe,and its warning level would be increased from the serious warning to the extremely serious warning during the period from 2016 to 2000.It was found that the ecological security in Shanxi Province in the future will be a key problem to be solved.The results would contribute to the strategy adjustment of regional development in Shanxi Province and be helpful to realize the transformation of resources-based economy and the regional sustainable development.

Key words: emergy, ecological footprint, diversity index, ecological security, sustainability, Shanxi Province