干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 913-920.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2016.05.01

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961—2010年北方半干旱区极端降水时空变化

王炳钦1,2, 江源1,2, 董满宇1,2, 文岩2   

  1. 1.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875;
    2.北京师范大学资源学院,北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-17 修回日期:2015-01-21 出版日期:2016-09-15 发布日期:2016-09-28
  • 作者简介:王炳钦(1984-),女,博士研究生,主要从事资源生态方面的研究. E-mail: wangbq429@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41401061);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2013NT63)资助

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation in the Semiarid Region in North China during the Period of 1961-2010

WANG Bing-qin1,2, JIANG Yuan1,2, DONG Man-yu1,2, WEN Yan2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2014-12-17 Revised:2015-01-21 Published:2016-09-15 Online:2016-09-28

PDF (PC)

1144

赞

摘要： 采用49个气象站点1961—2010年逐日降水量资料,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验和R/S等方法,分析了近50 a来北方半干旱区极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:近50 a北方半干旱区极端降水指数最大5日降水量(RX5day)、强降水量(R95p)、降水强度(SDII)、连续湿日数(CWD)、连续干旱日数(CDD)、大雨日数(R20)和年总降水量(PRCPTOT)都表现出减少趋势。其中,RX5day和R95p减少趋势通过了0.1以上的显著性水平检验。Hurst指数分析表明,研究区各极端降水指数未来都呈现出减少趋势,其中CWD表现得尤为明显。近50 a来北方半干旱区CDD在1985年和1995年发生突变,而其他极端降水指数在1999—2000年出现了减少的突变。研究区各极端降水指数多年平均值的空间分布格局较为一致,除CDD外其他极端降水指数基本呈现出从西北向东南逐渐减少的趋势。各极端降水指数变化趋势在空间上表现出一定的区域差异性,研究区极端降水指数在东部地区以减少趋势为主,而中部局部地区表现出增加趋势。近50 a来北方半干旱区各极端降水指数(除CDD外)与年总降水量呈极显著正相关关系,极端降水指数对年降水量具有很好的指示作用。

关键词: 极端降水, 变化趋势, 突变, 时空变化, 北方, 半干旱区

Abstract: Using the methods of Mann-Kendall test, moving T-test and R/S, the spatiotemporal variations of precipitation extreme events in the semiarid region in north China during the period of 1961-2010 were analyzed based on the daily precipitation data from 49 meteorological stations within or adjacent to the study area. The results showed that the maximum 5-day precipitation, daily heavy precipitation, precipitation intensity, maximum consecutive humid days, consecutive drought days, heavy precipitation days and annual precipitation in the study area were in a decrease trend in recent 50 years. In which the maximum 5-day precipitation and the daily heavy precipitation passed the significance test at 0.1 level (P<0.1). An analysis based on Hurst index showed that the six extreme precipitation indices will continually decrease in the future, especially for CWD. The abrupt change of consecutive drought days occurred around 1985 and 1995, and that of other six extreme precipitation indices occurred around 1999-2000. Except the change of consecutive drought days, other six indices decreased from the northwest to the southeast. There was a certain regional difference of variation trend of the extreme precipitation indices, these indices were dominated by a decrease trend in the east of the study area but an increase trend in some areas of the central part. There was a significant positive correlation between the annual precipitation and the extreme precipitation indices except for the consecutive drought days, and the extreme precipitation indices were the good indicators for annual precipitation in the study area.

Key words: extreme precipitation, variation trend, abrupt change, spatiotemporal variation, north China, semiarid region