1981—2024年西藏地区平均风速及其资源时空变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.01

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 1549-1562.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.01 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250901

1981—2024年西藏地区平均风速及其资源时空变化

杜军¹^,²^,³(), 次旺¹, 黄志诚²^,⁴, 德庆卓嘎²^,³^,⁵

1.西藏自治区气候中心，西藏拉萨 850001
2.中国气象局墨脱大气水分循环综合观测野外科学试验基地，墨脱国家气候观象台，墨脱大气水分循环西藏自治区野外科学观测研究站，西藏墨脱 860700
3.中国气象局日喀则国家气候观象台，西藏日喀则 857000
4.西藏自治区气象信息网络中心，西藏拉萨 850001
5.西藏高原大气环境科学研究所，西藏高原大气环境开放实验室，西藏拉萨 850001

收稿日期:2025-05-07 修回日期:2025-07-10 出版日期:2025-09-15 发布日期:2025-09-16
作者简介:杜军（1969-），男，正研级高级工程师，主要从事高原气候与气候变化研究. E-mail: dujun0891@163.com
基金资助:
西藏自治区科技重大专项(XZ202402ZD0006);中国气象科学研究院青藏高原气象科学研究院开放课题(CAMS/ITPM2024K02);西藏自治区科技创新基地建设项目(XZ202401YD0008)

Spatio-temporal change in mean wind speed and its resources in Xizang from 1981 to 2024

DU Jun¹^,²^,³(), Tsewang ¹, HUANG Zhicheng²^,⁴, Dechendolkar ²^,³^,⁵

1. Xizang Autonomous Region Climatic Center, Lhasa 850001, Xizang, China
2. Xizang Mêdog Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Atmospheric Water Cycle, Mêdog National Climate Observatory, CMA Mêdog Field Science Experiment Base for Atmospheric Water Cycle, Mêdog 860700, Xizang, China
3. Xizagê National Climate Observatory, CMA, Xizagê 857000, Xizang, China
4. Meteorological Information and Network Center of Xizang Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850001, Xizang, China
5. Xizang Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Xizang Open Laboratory for Plateau Atmospheric Environment, Lhasa 850001, Xizang, China

Received:2025-05-07 Revised:2025-07-10 Published:2025-09-15 Online:2025-09-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近地面风速特征对沙尘暴、蒸散、大气污染、风能开发等研究具有重要意义。本文基于近44 a（1981—2024年）西藏38个气象站点逐日平均风速资料，以及逐月平均大气环流和海温等指数，采用线性倾向估计、Pearson相关系数、Pettitt突变检验法和逐步回归等方法，分析近44 a西藏平均风速及其资源时空变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明：（1）西藏大部分站点年和四季平均风速及≥3 m·s^-1日数均显著减小，藏西北风速减小更快；平均风速≥3 m·s^-1日数在春季减少的范围更广，冬季增加的站点最多。（2）近44 a西藏年平均风速及≥3 m·s^-1日数减小速率分别为0.08 m·s^-1·（10a）^-1、13.5 d·（10a）^-1，主要表现在春季。（3）西藏20世纪80年代年、季平均风速均偏大，以春季最明显；90年代仅春季平均风速偏大，其他三季和年平均风速均正常；进入21世纪后，四季和年平均风速均正常。在平均风速≥3 m·s^-1日数上，20世纪80年代和90年代均偏多，21世纪00年代和10年代均偏少。（4）近44 a四季和年平均风速及其≥3 m·s^-1日数由偏大到偏小的转折时间分别发生在20世纪90年代初和90年代中后期，2010年左右平均风速出现了由减小向增大的转折。（5）除冬季外，西藏年、季平均风速显著减小是由全球气候变暖引起。

关键词: 平均风速, 变化趋势, 年代际变化, 突变, 大气环流指数, 海温指数, 西藏

Abstract:

Understanding the characteristics of near-surface wind speed (Ws) is crucial in investigating dust storms, evapotranspiration, air pollution, and wind energy development. Based on the daily mean Ws at 38 meteorological stations in Xizang from 1981 to 2024 as well as the indices of monthly atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, we analyzed temporal and spatial changes in the mean Ws and its influencing factors. For this analysis, we used statistical methods, namely, Pearson's correlation coefficient, Pettitt mutation test, linear tendency estimation, and stepwise regression. The results show that: (1) The annual and seasonal average Ws and the number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s^-1 decreased significantly at most of the stations in Xizang, and the Ws decreased faster in northwest Xizang than in other directions. The number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s^-1 decreased more in spring than in other seasons, and the number of stations with this Ws increased the most in winter among all the seasons. (2) In the past 44 years, the annual Ws and the number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s^-1 decreased in Tibet at a rate of 0.08 m·s^-1·(10a)^-1 and 13.5 d·(10a)^-1, respectively, mainly in spring. (3) In the 1980s, the annual and seasonal Ws in Xizang were relatively higher than in the rest of the study period, specifically in spring. In the 1990s, the Ws was high in spring and standard in the other three seasons with a typical annual outlook. In the 21st century, the seasonal and annual Ws were standard. The number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s^-1 were more in the 1980s and 1990s and less in the 2000s and 2010s. (4) In the past 44 years, the sudden larger to smaller shifts in the annual and seasonal Ws and the number of days with Ws ≥3 m·s^-1 occurred in the early 1990s and mid to late 1990s, respectively. The Ws showed a turning point from decreasing to increasing around 2010. (5) Except winters, the significant decreases in annual and seasonal Ws in Xizang were caused by global warming.

Key words: average wind speed, change trend, interdecadal change, climate mutation, atmospheric circulation index, sea surface temperature index, Xizang

杜军, 次旺, 黄志诚, 德庆卓嘎. 1981—2024年西藏地区平均风速及其资源时空变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(9): 1549-1562.

DU Jun, Tsewang , HUANG Zhicheng, Dechendolkar . Spatio-temporal change in mean wind speed and its resources in Xizang from 1981 to 2024[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(9): 1549-1562.

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要素	时间	1980s （1981— 1990年）	1990s （1991—2000年）	2000s （2001— 2010年）	2010s （2011—2020年）
平均风速/（m·s^-1）	春季	0.7	0.2	-0.1	0.0
	夏季	0.5	0.0	-0.1	0.1
	秋季	0.4	0.0	-0.1	0.1
	冬季	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.1
	年	0.5	0.0	-0.1	0.1
Ws_≥3 日数/d	春季	15.5	7.8	-2.6	-3.7
	夏季	11.7	3.8	-1.1	-1.7
	秋季	9.4	3.4	-1.6	-0.5
	冬季	9.4	3.0	-0.8	-0.9
	年	44.2	14.8	-9.2	-5.6

	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	年
经度	-0.59^***	-0.57^***	-0.51^**	-0.50^**	-0.55^***
纬度	-0.01	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	-0.03
海拔高度	0.64^***	0.44^**	0.52^**	0.59^***	0.57^***

1981—2024年西藏地区平均风速及其资源时空变化

Spatio-temporal change in mean wind speed and its resources in Xizang from 1981 to 2024

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