关键词: 降水量, Mann-Kendall趋势检验, Cubic函数, Mann-Kendall突变检测, R/S分析法, Morlet小波变换, 时空分布

Abstract: This paper focused on precipitation in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang based on the monthly precipitation data during the period from 1961 to 2009 and from January to March 2010, and the Mann-Kendall trend test, cubic function, Mann-Kendall sharp change check, R/S analysis and Morlet wavelet transformation analysis were used in the study. The results are as follows: (1) Annual and winter precipitation was significantly increased, and the change of precipitation in other seasons was not obvious; precipitation  was quite different from different regions; the linear trend of precipitation was consistent with the Mann-Kendall trend change; (2) The fitting results of cubic function revealed that the annual, spring and winter precipitation was monotonously increased, and such change occurred from the 1960s; summer precipitation was increased at first, then decreased, increased and decreased again; the variation of autumn precipitation was not significant, and the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation was quite different from different regions; (3) Annual and summer precipitation was sharply increased around 1983 and 1987 respectively, the sharp change of spring and autumn precipitation was not significant, and there was no sharp change of winter precipitation; the sharp change time of precipitation was inconsistent; (4) There was a significant periodic change of annual and seasonal precipitation at inter-decadal and inter-annual scales; (5) There was an anti-continuance of precipitation.

Key words: precipitation, Mann-Kendall trend test, cubic function, Mann-kendall sharp change check, R/S analysis, Morlet wavelet transformation, spatiotemporal　distribution