干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 1691-1702.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.13 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250913

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国原生与恢复草原固碳能力的差异及驱动力

刘晗1,2,3(), 龚亚珍1,2,4,5(), 贾册6, 刘士磊4,5   

  1. 1.浙江工商大学统计与数学学院，浙江 杭州 310018
    2.浙江工商大学之江大数据统计研究院，浙江 杭州 310018
    3.浙江工商大学统计数据工程技术与应用协同创新中心，浙江 杭州 310018
    4.中国人民大学生态环境学院，北京 100034
    5.中国人民大学生态文明研究院，北京 100034
    6.河海大学经济与金融学院，江苏 常州 213200
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-11 修回日期:2025-03-05 出版日期:2025-09-15 发布日期:2025-09-16
  • 通讯作者: 龚亚珍. E-mail: ygong.2010@ruc.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:刘晗（1986-），男，博士研究生，主要从事生态与资源评价研究. E-mail: liuhan19862016@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(42207543);中国人民大学新教师启动金项目(22XNKJ26)

Different and driving factors of carbon sequestration capacity in primary and restored grasslands in China

LIU Han1,2,3(), GONG Yazhen1,2,4,5(), JIA Ce6, LIU Shilei4,5   

  1. 1. School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
    2. Zhijiang Institute of Big Data and Statistics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
    3. Collaborative Innovation Center of Statisitical Data Engineering Technology & Application, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
    4. School of Ecology & Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100034, China
    5. Research Institute of Ecological Civilization, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100034, China
    6. School of Economics and Finance, Hohai University, Changzhou 213200, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2024-11-11 Revised:2025-03-05 Published:2025-09-15 Online:2025-09-16

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摘要：

净初级生产力（Net Primary Production，NPP）是反映草原生长情况和表征草原固碳能力的重要指标。本文以我国北方4省为研究区，基于NPP、土地覆盖等多源遥感数据及社会、经济、气象等统计数据，分析了原生与恢复草原固碳能力的时空变化情况及关键驱动力，为我国制定更具针对性的草原生态政策提供参考。结果表明：恢复草原固碳能力高于原生草原80%左右；原生草原固碳能力的空间聚集情况（0.534~0.653）略窄于恢复草原（0.511~0.736）；降雨量、日照时长与生态保护区政策是草原固碳提升的共同驱动力，降雨量达到600 mm和年日照时长超过3000 h提升草原固碳效果最佳；温度超8 ℃有利于原生草原固碳，最佳恢复草原面积介于100~200 km2；在政府推行生态恢复政策前，气象条件是草原恢复的主要驱动力，政策推行后影响力逐渐增强；相关部门应继续推进行之有效的生态恢复政策，助力我国早日实现“双碳”目标。

关键词: 干旱地区, 原生草原, 恢复草原, 固碳能力, 随机森林

Abstract:

Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important indicator that reflects grassland growth and characterizes grassland carbon sequestration capacity. This article considers four provinces in northern China as research areas. Based on multisource data, such as NPP; terrain and land types; and socioeconomic and meteorological factors, the study analyzes spatiotemporal changes in the carbon sequestration capacity of primary and restored grasslands, explores key driving forces for improving their carbon sequestration capacity, and provides reference for China in formulating targeted grassland ecological policies. The results demonstrated that the carbon sequestration capacity of restored grasslands is approximately 80% higher than that of pristine grasslands. The spatial aggregation variation of carbon sequestration in pristine grasslands (ranging from 0.534 to 0.653) is slightly narrower than that in restored grasslands (ranging from 0.511 to 0.736). Rainfall, sunshine duration, and policies related to ecological conservation zones are common driving forces that enhance carbon sequestration in both types. The optimal conditions for enhancing carbon sequestration in grasslands are rainfall that reach 600 mm and annual sunshine duration that exceed 3000 h. Temperatures more than 8 ℃ are conducive to carbon sequestration in pristine grasslands, while the optimal area for restored grasslands ranges from 100 to 200 km2. Meteorological factors were the primary driving forces prior to the implementation of restoration policies; subsequently, however, the influence of policies began to intensify. The relevant departments should continue to formulate effective ecological restoration policies to help China achieve its dual carbon strategic goals as soon as possible.

Key words: arid regions, primary grasslands, restoration grasslands, carbon sequestration capability, random forest