气候变化及景观格局与生态系统碳储存的耦合关系——以祁连山为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化及景观格局与生态系统的结构、功能及动态变化密切相关。祁连山生态系统(QLME)是中国重要的生态功能区,基于多元数据,运用遥感及GIS技术,结合InVEST 及GeoSOS-FLUS模型,探索CSET与方法,实现对QLME碳储存的估算。定量估算及分析表明：（1）不同景观类型背景下QLME碳储存具有明显的时空差异性,QLME碳储存最高为草地及林地景观,其次为裸地,而耕地、湿地、建设用地以及农村居民点景观的碳储存较小。1985—2018年间,QLME碳储存变化总体呈增长趋势,增加了4805.95×10⁴ t,年增长率为38.43%。（2）草地景观碳储存占研究区50%以上,其碳储存呈先增后减趋势,林地景观碳储存占总碳储存的11.31%~36.16%,变化幅度较大。（3）基于未来RCP4.5及RCP8.5气候变化情景,QLME碳储存趋于增加,2050年平均碳储存量为3813.38 t·km^-2,较2018年增长了8.69%。该研究对于进一步认识碳循环规律及其生态系统稳定性具有重要意义。

关键词: 祁连山生态系统（QLME）, 气候变化情景, 碳储存估算技术（CSET）, 生态系统服务价值评估技术, 景观格局, 模型

Abstract:

Climate change and landscape pattern are closely related to the structure, function, and dynamic changes of an ecosystem. The Qilian Mountain Ecosystem (QLME) is an important ecological area in China. Based on multivariate data and using remote sensing and GIS technology combined with InVEST and GeoSOS-FLUS models, the technology and method of estimating carbon storage in the QLME was explored. Consequently, an estimation of carbon storage in the QLME was achieved. According to quantitative estimation and analysis, carbon storage in the QLME showed obvious spatial and temporal differences due to different landscape types. The highest QLME carbon storage was in grassland and woodland followed by in bare land. The carbon storage of cultivated land, wetland, construction land, and rural residential sites was low. From 1985 to 2018, QLME carbon storage increased overall by 4805.95 million tons with an annual growth rate of 38.43%. Grassland carbon storage accounted for more than half of the study area and its carbon storage increased at first before decreasing. Forest landscape carbon storage accounted for 11.31%-36.16% of total carbon storage had a wide range of variation. Based on the future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, the carbon storage of the QLME tended to increase; average carbon storage was estimated at 3813.38 tons for 2050, which would represent a growth rate of 8.69% from the rate in 2018. This study is important for improving understanding of the carbon cycle and ecosystem stability.

Key words: Qilian Mountain Ecosystem(QLME), climate change scenario, carbon storage estimation techniques(CSET), ecosystem service value assessment technology, landscape pattern, model

王让会,赵文斐,彭擎,刘春伟,周丽敏,田畅. 气候变化及景观格局与生态系统碳储存的耦合关系——以祁连山为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(1): 250-257.

WANG Ranghui,ZHAO Wenfei,PENG Qing,LIU Chunwei,ZHOU Limin,TIAN Chang. The relationship of climate change and landscape pattern with ecosystem carbon storage: A case study from the Qilian Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 250-257.

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年份	碳储存总量/10⁴ t	平均碳储存/（t·km^-2）	变化率/%
1985	12506.18	2533.00	-
1990	12442.41	2520.08	-0.51
1995	12471.02	2525.88	0.23
2000	13301.62	2693.83	6.66
2005	14058.85	2847.53	5.69
2010	13785.72	2793.01	-1.94
2015	17334.58	3513.08	25.74
2018	17312.13	3508.53	-0.13