内蒙古半干旱区蒸散特征及归因分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探讨蒸散（ET）变化特征及其影响因素对区域水资源有效利用至关重要。本文基于BEPS(Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator)模型,结合遥感数据和气象数据模拟了内蒙古半干旱区1981—2018年ET变化特征并量化了其影响因子的贡献。研究发现,1981—2018年内蒙古半干旱地区ET以1.75 mm·a^-1的速度呈波动上升趋势（P<0.05）;同时,ET变化存在年代际差异,在1997年发生明显突变,1998—2018年ET以1.70 mm·a^-1的速度增加（P<0.05）。大气水分亏缺（VPD）和LAI在1997年后每年分别以0.002 hPa和0.01的速度显著增加（P<0.05）,弥补了其他因子的不利影响,导致了ET显著增加。通径分析和回归分析结果表明,ET变化主要受到VPD的直接作用驱动,通径分析的决定系数达0.95,由VPD主导ET变化的区域占内蒙古半干旱区面积的93.56%,能够解释ET变化的24.83%~90.46%。同时,VPD也是耕地、林地、草地、城市和裸地5种土地利用类型上ET变化的主要影响因素,平均能够解释45%以上的ET变化。

关键词: 蒸散, 大气水分亏缺, BEPS模型, 叶面积指数, 内蒙古

Abstract:

Understanding the variation characteristics of evapotranspiration (ET) and its influencing factors are essential for regional water resources. Based on the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator model, remote sensing data, and meteorological data, the characteristics of ET change in semiarid regions of Inner Mongolia from 1981 to 2018 were simulated and its driving factors were quantified. ET of semiarid regions in Inner Mongolia showed a fluctuating upward trend with a rate at 1.75 mm·a^-1 (P<0.05) from 1981 to 2018. Further, there were concurrent differences in ET with a significant mutation happened in 1997. ET increased at a rate of 1.70 mm·a^-1 in 1998-2018 (P<0.05). Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and LAI were the main driving factors of ET changes after 1997, which significantly increased at a rate of 0.002 hPa and 0.01 per year (P<0.05). The adverse effects of other factors were suppressed in positive influence of VPD and LAI, which led to a significant increase in ET. VPD was the main driving factor of ET change, which dominated regional ET change in 93.56% of the area and explained 24.83%-90.46% of ET change, where the coefficient of determination for path analysis was 0.95. VPD was the primary factor driving the five land use types of cultivated land, forestland, grassland, urban land, and bare land with average contribution rates of more than 45%.

Key words: evapotranspiration, vapor pressure deficit, BEPS model, leaf area index, Inner Mongoia

赵晓涵,张方敏,韩典辰,翁升恒. 内蒙古半干旱区蒸散特征及归因分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(6): 1614-1623.

ZHAO Xiaohan,ZHANG Fangmin,HAN Dianchen,WENG Shengheng. Evapotranspiration changes and its attribution in semi-arid regions of Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(6): 1614-1623.

图/表 10

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图4

表1

表2

表3

图5

图6

表4

不同土地利用类型影响因子对蒸散（ET）变化贡献率分析"

因子	TA/%		LAI/%		VPD/%		WD/%		SMV/%
类型	占比	$θ$	占比	$θ$	占比	$θ$	占比	$θ$	占比	$θ$
耕地	1.30	40.47	9.82	38.10	86.10	45.83	0.22	35.58	2.56	34.73
林地	0.69	50.23	4.39	38.61	93.72	45.00	0.26	33.56	0.94	34.19
草地	0.76	43.89	2.43	37.65	95.18	47.86	0.10	39.29	1.53	37.24
城市	0.96	38.12	8.26	38.12	88.89	48.72	0.14	35.09	1.75	36.66
裸地	1.13	40.64	1.83	37.80	96.14	46.89	0.12	41.99	0.79	40.92

表4

参考文献 35

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因子	1981—2018年		1981—1996年		1998—2018年
因子	β	R²	β	R²	β	R²
ET/(mm·a^-1)	1.75	0.73^**	-0.41	0.05	1.70	0.51^**
VPD/hPa	0.00	0.50^**	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.18^*
LAI	0.01	0.15^*	0.01	0.23^*	0.03	0.28^*
TA/℃	0.05	0.45^**	0.06	0.22^*	0.01	0.02
WD/(m·s^-1)	-0.01	0.64^**	-0.03	0.74^**	-0.00	0.02
SMV/(m³·m^-3)	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.002
PRE/(mm·a^-1)	-0.82	0.03	2.65	0.12	1.95	0.04
SD/h	-1.24	0.05	-2.01	0.04	-4.91	0.18^*

因子	1981—2018年	1981—1996年	1998—2018年
VPD	0.85^**	0.64^**	0.70^**
LAI	0.81^**	0.11	0.54^*
TA	0.70^**	0.41	0.45^*
WD	-0.57^**	0.21	0.21
SMV	-0.44^**	-0.49	-0.60^**
PRE	-0.41^**	-0.51^*	0.02
SD	0.08	0.43	0.02

因子	直接作用	总间接作用	间接作用							决定系数
因子	直接作用	总间接作用	TA	PRE	WD	SD	VPD	LAI	SMV	决定系数
TA	-0.60	1.30	-	0.03	0.22	0.01	0.99	0.03	0.02	-0.42
PRE	-0.11	-0.30	0.15	-	-0.03	0.05	-0.53	0.09	-0.02	0.05
WD	-0.34	-0.23	0.40	-0.01	-	-0.02	-0.56	-0.04	0.00	0.19
SD	-0.09	0.17	0.05	0.07	-0.07	-	0.15	-0.05	0.02	-0.01
VPD	1.12	-0.27	-0.54	0.05	0.17	-0.01	-	0.02	0.03	0.95
LAI	0.17	0.08	-0.11	-0.06	0.09	0.02	0.15	-	-0.01	0.04
SMV	-0.05	-0.39	0.30	-0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.69	0.03	-	0.02