塔里木河下游水生态安全评价及驱动要素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.05

干旱区研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 39-47.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.05

塔里木河下游水生态安全评价及驱动要素分析

李梦怡^1,²(),邓铭江³,凌红波⁴(),王光焰⁵,徐生武⁵

1.天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300350
2.天津大学建筑工程学院,天津 300350
3.新疆额尔齐斯河流域开发工程建设管理局,新疆乌鲁木齐 830000
4.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
5.新疆塔里木河流域干流管理局,新疆库尔勒 841000

收稿日期:2020-05-03 修回日期:2020-07-21 出版日期:2021-01-15 发布日期:2021-03-05
通讯作者: 凌红波
作者简介:李梦怡（1993-）,女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为生态水文过程. E-mail: 1724657017@qq.com
基金资助:
中国科学院“西部青年学者”项目(2019-XBQNXZ-A-001);新疆天山青年计划(2019Q006);中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划)项目(KFJ-STS-QYZD-114)

Evaluation of ecological water security and analysis of driving factors in the lower Tarim River, China

LI Mengyi^1,²(),DENG Mingjiang³,LING Hongbo⁴(),WANG Guangyan⁵,XU Shengwu⁵

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
2. Tianjin University School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin 300350, China
3. Xinjiang Irtysh River Basin Development and Construction Management Bureau, Urumqi 830000, Xinjiang, China
4. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
5. Management Bureau of the Main Stream of Xinjiang Tarim River Basin, Korla 841000, Xinjiang, China

Received:2020-05-03 Revised:2020-07-21 Online:2021-01-15 Published:2021-03-05
Contact: Hongbo LING

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着塔里木河流域水资源统一管理不断加强,塔里木河下游生态输水量增加,生态保护取得了阶段性成效。然而,水资源严格管理下的塔里木河下游水生态安全状况及变化过程如何,相关研究缺乏科学的评估。对此,本文利用塔里木河下游2000—2017年的水量、监测断面地下水埋深、胡杨新增生物量、植被覆盖度、干旱指数等指标数据,运用主成分分析法和综合指数法评价了其水生态安全状况,揭示了影响水生态安全的驱动要素及其变化特点。结果表明：2000—2017年,塔里木河下游的水生态安全综合评价指数由3.91上升到8.47,生态安全水平不断提高,经历了从中度警示区到较安全区的变化过程。影响水生态安全评价的主要要素是水文驱动要素和植被驱动要素,其中下泄水量、地下水埋深和植被多样性对下游水生态安全影响显著。以上研究为优化塔里木河下游生态输水模式提供重要的科学依据。

关键词: 塔里木河, 下游生态安全评价, 主成分分析法, 驱动要素

Abstract:

Due to the continuous strengthening of the unified water resource management programs in the Tarim River Basin, the ecological water transport in its lower reaches has increased, and periodic improvements in ecological protection have been achieved. However, there is a lack of scientific evaluation regarding the impact of strict water resource management program on the water ecological security status and changes. This study used principal component analysis and comprehensive coefficient method to evaluate the water ecological security status and reveal the changing characteristics of the driving factors affecting it. The analyses were based on the 2000 to 2017 index data of water quantity, groundwater depth of the monitored section, new Populus euphratica biomass, vegetation coverage, and drought indices in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The results showed that from 2000 to 2017 the comprehensive water ecological security evaluation index increased from 39.1 to 84.7, and the ecological security level continuously improved, changing the area from a “moderate warning” to a “safe” area. Hydrological and vegetative influences are the two driving factors affecting downstream water ecological security; therefore, the volume of discharge, groundwater depth, and vegetation diversity significantly impact water ecological security. This study could provide an important scientific basis for optimizing the ecological water transport model in the lower reaches of the Tarim River.

Key words: Tarim River, downstream ecological safety assessment, principal component analysis, driving factor

李梦怡,邓铭江,凌红波,王光焰,徐生武. 塔里木河下游水生态安全评价及驱动要素分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(1): 39-47.

LI Mengyi,DENG Mingjiang,LING Hongbo,WANG Guangyan,XU Shengwu. Evaluation of ecological water security and analysis of driving factors in the lower Tarim River, China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(1): 39-47.

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评价指标	指标级别划分标准与指标赋值
评价指标	I（10分）	II（8分）	III（6分）	IV（4分）	V（2分）
下泄水量（X₁）	>6	4.5~6	3.5~4.5	2~3.5	<2
水量补给（X₂）	>5.7	3.8~5.7	3~3.8	1.6~3	<1.6
地下水埋深（X₃）	2~4	4~4.5	4.5~5	5~6	>6
植被覆盖度（X₄）	>0.2	0.15~0.2	0.1~0.15	0.05~0.1	<0.05
胡杨新增生物量（X₅）	>50	35~50	30~35	20~30	<20
植被多样性（X₆）	>1.5	1~1.5	0.5~1	0.3~0.5	<0.3
干旱指数（X₇）	<0.46	0.46~0.57	0.57~0.76	0.76~0.86	>0.86

成分	特征值	成分贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
1	4.22	60.29	60.29
2	1.45	20.69	80.99
3	0.73	10.40	91.39

	主成分1	主成分2	主成分3
X₁	0.83	0.48	-0.24
X₂	0.85	0.17	-0.11
X₃	0.81	0.51	-0.26
X₄	0.83	-0.31	0.36
X₅	0.89	-0.38	0.05
X₆	0.82	0.51	-0.26
X₇	-0.12	0.77	0.62

	主成分1	主成分2	主成分3	综合得分F	排名	权重r_j
X₁	0.40	0.40	-0.28	0.32	1	0.18
X₂	0.39	0.42	-0.30	0.32	2	0.17
X₃	0.41	0.14	-0.12	0.29	3	0.16
X₄	0.41	-0.25	0.42	0.26	4	0.14
X₅	0.40	-0.26	0.32	0.24	5	0.13
X₆	0.43	-0.31	0.06	0.22	6	0.12
X₇	-0.06	0.64	0.73	0.19	7	0.10

塔里木河下游水生态安全评价及驱动要素分析

Evaluation of ecological water security and analysis of driving factors in the lower Tarim River, China

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