准噶尔盆地植被变化趋势及相关因素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.05.22

Abstract

Abstract:

To explore the response of vegetation to environmental change, the vegetation dynamic changes and correlative factors in the Junggar Basin were analyzed by using the maximum value composite method, Mann-Kendall, Hurst trend analysis, hydro-thermal coordination analysis, and other methods based on MOD09A1 remote sensing image data from 2000 to 2019. The results showed an increasing vegetation area in the Junggar Basin in the past 20 years due to the warming and wetting of the regional climate, the increase of precipitation in the cold season, and the popularization of drip irrigation technology. The average percentage of area where vegetation presented an increasing trend and a decreasing trend in each season was 85.47% and 12.61%, respectively. The low-lying areas prone to converge water and salt showed a decreasing trend in vegetation. The vegetation and salinization indexes were negatively correlated. Vegetation changes in oasis areas were mainly regulated by human activities. The results of the Hurst trend prediction showed that the future trend of vegetation change in the basin was basically consistent with the trend of vegetation change in the past 20 years. The results of this study have certain reference value for the succession and genesis of plant communities in different habitats of the basin under the background of global warming and human activities.

Key words: climate, vegetation, salinization, correlation analysis

MA Xiaomei,DU Bingchenxi,CHNEG Yongxiang,WU Ling. Analysis of vegetation variation trend and correlative factors in Junggar Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(5): 1401-1410.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Grading standards of the Man-Kendall trend"

统计值	等级	缩写	赋值
$Z ≥ 1.96$	显著增加	$SII$	2
$0 < Z < 1.96$	一般增加	$SLI$	1
$Z = 0$	不变	$Con$	0
$- 1.96 < Z < 0$	一般减少	$SLD$	-1
$Z ≤ - 1.96$	显著减少	$SID$	-2

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

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等级	春季		夏季		秋季		生长季
等级	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%
显著减少	0.08	2.23	0.04	1.05	0.03	0.74	0.04	0.93
一般减少	0.42	11.27	0.48	12.68	0.38	10.17	0.3	7.98
不变	0.07	1.73	0.06	1.68	0.08	2.04	0.04	1.04
一般增加	2.20	58.52	2.13	56.67	2.29	61.07	2.02	53.64
显著增加	0.99	26.25	1.05	27.92	0.98	25.99	1.37	36.41

等级	春季		夏季		秋季		生长季
等级	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%
显著减少	1.48	39.51	0.79	21.15	0.62	16.63	1.21	32.34
一般减少	1.71	45.58	2.18	58.03	1.98	52.79	1.82	48.35
不变	0.15	3.93	0.18	4.68	0.20	5.31	0.17	4.64
一般增加	0.35	9.36	0.55	14.59	0.89	23.66	0.48	12.80
显著增加	0.06	1.62	0.06	1.55	0.06	1.62	0.07	1.86

等级	春季		夏季		秋季		生长季
等级	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积//10⁵ km²	占比/%
NDVI减少,SRSI减少	0.09	3.38	0.17	5.99	0.05	1.86	0.05	2.89
NDVI减少,SRSI增加	0.15	5.76	0.21	7.42	0.20	7.34	0.06	3.28
NDVI增加,SRSI减少	2.23	86.92	2.24	80.19	2.10	75.40	1.54	83.74
NDVI增加,SRSI增加	0.10	3.93	0.18	6.40	0.43	15.40	0.19	10.09

Analysis of vegetation variation trend and correlative factors in Junggar Basin

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