基于SWAT模型的开都河流域水文干旱变化特征及驱动因子分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.03.03

Abstract

Abstract:

This study used Kaidu River Basin as an example to construct a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the basis to identify variation in drought. Subsequently, the Bayesian Dynamic Linear Equation (BDL) model was used to determine the impact of climate driving factors, such as the Southern Oscillation (SOI), on regional seasonal drought. The results showed that the drought in the Kaidu River Basin from 1965 to 2016 was primarily concentrated in winter and spring. In different seasons, variation in the Kaidu basin was different, but most trends were not significant, and significant decreasing trends were only detected in autumn and winter. Changes in the SPEI index in different seasons were affected by climate factors, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and most of them fluctuated around 0, resulting in a short change cycle, mostly concentrated in 2-4 years. The impact of the climate index on drought variability changed over time, and the impact on different seasons was also different.

Key words: SWAT model, dynamic linear model, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Kaidu River basin

SONG Yuxin,ZUO Qiting,MA Junxia. Variation and dynamic drivers of drought in Kaidu River Basin based on the SWAT model[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(3): 610-617.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 28

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数据类型	数据说明	数据来源
DEM数据	30 m分辨率	地理空间数据云平台
土壤数据	1 km分辨率	世界土壤数据库
土地利用数据	1 km分辨率	资源环境科学与数据中心
气象数据	世界天气数据库	国家环境预测中心（NECP）

干湿等级	SPEI
轻度干旱	（-1,-0.5）
中等干旱	[-1,-1.5）
重度干旱	[-1.5,-2]
极端干旱	≤-2

Variation and dynamic drivers of drought in Kaidu River Basin based on the SWAT model

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