1957—2018年和田河源流径流演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.02.21

Abstract

Abstract:

The evolution characteristics of river runoff are of great importance to the management and efficient use of water resources in a river basin. Based on 62 years (1957-2018) of runoff measurement data from Wuluwati station and Tongguziluoke station in the headstream area of the Hotan River, the evolution characteristics of its runoff were assessed using linear trend tests, Mann-Kendall trend tests, and rescaled range analysis. These evolution characteristics were analyzed on four time scales including seasons and months. Results showed that the interdecadal variation characteristics of runoff at Wuluwati station and Tongguziluoke station were the same: Both had experienced a “normal water year-preferential wet year” and the annual runoffs at both stations were equal (they showed a nonsignificant increasing trend). The mutation points of the runoff sequence were all in 2009 and the future annual runoff is predicted to continue to increase for a certain period. The summer and autumn runoff changes at Wuluwati station had the greatest impact on annual runoff, whereas the summer runoff at Tongguziluoke station had the greatest impact on annual runoff. Finally, the distribution of runoff during the year was uneven; it was mainly concentrated in May-September, which accounted for 86.11%-90.86% of runoff, indicating a trend for “dry winters and flooding in summer”.

Key words: Hotan River, linear trend, runoff change, Mann-Kendall test, rescaled range analysis

YU Qiying,ZHANG Jianghui,BAI Yungang,WANG Shuo,JIANG Zhu,CAO Biao,LU Zhenlin. Evolution characteristics of the headstream of the Hotan River headstream from 1957 to 2018[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(2): 494-503.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Tab. 3

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

References 27

[1]	Zhang Qiang, Liu Chunling, Xu Chongyu. Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130 years in the Yangtze River basin, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2005,324(1):255-265.
[2]	李晓娟, 张军龙, 宋进喜, 等. 渭河陕西段径流量对经济用水的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016,39(2):265-274.
	[ Li Xiaojuan, Zhang Junlong, Song Jinxi, et al. Response of runoff to economic water consumptions of the Weihe River in Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2016,39(2):265-274. ]
[3]	何兵, 高凡, 闫正龙, 等. 叶尔羌河径流演变规律与变异特征[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2018,29(1):38-43, 49.
	[ He Bing, Gao Fan, Yan Zhenglong, et al. Evolution and variation of runoff in Yarkant River[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2018,29(1):38-43, 49. ]
[4]	杨琳琳, 李波, 付奇. 基于BP神经网络模型的新疆水资源承载力情景分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2016,52(2):216-222.
	[ Yang Linlin, Li Bo, Fu Qi. Scenario analysis of water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang based on BP neural network model[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2016,52(2):216-222. ]
[5]	傅丽昕. 近50年塔里木河源流区气候变化及其对径流量的影响[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2008.
	[ Fu Lixin. Climate Change and its Influence on Runoff of Tarim River in Recent 50 years[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Agricultural University, 2008. ]
[6]	史文娟, 王娟. 和田河上游径流变化特征及影响因子分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2010,24(11):83-87.
	[ Shi Wenjuan, Wang Juan. Runoff variation characteristics and influencing factors in the upper reaches of Hotan River[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2010,24(11):83-87. ]
[7]	张晓伟, 沈冰, 黄领梅. 和田河年径流变化规律研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2007,22(6):974-979.
	[ Zhang Xiaowei, Shen Bing, Huang Lingmei. Study on the variation law of the annual runoff in Hotan River[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2007,22(6):974-979. ]
[8]	罗敏, 刘铁, 黄粤, 等. 未来气候情景下和田河流域日径流过程模拟[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2016,27(2):11-17.
	[ Luo Min, Liu Tie, Huang Yue, et al. Simulation of daily runoff process in Hotan River basin under scenario of future climate[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2016,27(2):11-17. ]
[9]	王杰, 王俊, 孙鑫. 和田河流域水量沿程变化分析研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2013,24(3):142-148.
	[ Wang Jie, Wang Jun, Sun Xin. Analysis of water change along Hotan River basin[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2013,24(3):142-148. ]
[10]	沈冰, 黄领梅, 阮本清, 等. 和田绿洲水循环要素变化特征[J]. 水利学报, 2003,12(5):78-83.
	[ Shen Bing, Huang Lingmei, Ruan Benqing, et al. Study on the water cycling characteristics of Hotan oasis during the second half of last century[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2003,12(5):78-83. ]
[11]	吴益, 程维明, 任立良, 等. 新疆和田河流域河川径流时序特征分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2006,21(3):375-381.
	[ Wu Yi, Cheng Weiming, Ren Liliang, et al. Analysis on the characteristics of annual runoff in Hotan catchment[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006,21(3):375-381. ]
[12]	秦胜英, 黄领梅, 沈冰, 等. 新疆和田河径流损失辨析[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2015,26(4):85-88.
	[ Qin Shengying, Huang Lingmei, Shen Bing, et al. Discussion on the runoff loss from the Hotan River in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2015,26(4):85-88. ]
[13]	鲁凤, 钱鹏, 胡秀芳, 等. 基于小波分析与Mann-Kendall法的上海市近12年空气质量变化[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013,22(12):1614-1620.
	[ Lu Feng, Qian Peng, Hu Xiufang, et al. Air quality changes of Shanghai recent 12 years based on wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall method[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013,22(12):1614-1620. ]
[14]	孙栋元, 齐广平, 鄢继选, 等. 疏勒河干流降水变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020,37(2):291-303.
	[ Sun Dongyuan, Qi Guangping, Yan Jixuan, et al. Research on variation characteristics of precipitation in the mainstream of Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020,37(2):291-303. ]
[15]	春兰, 秦福莹, 宝鲁, 等. 近55 a内蒙古极端降水指数时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2019,36(4):963-972.
	[ Chun Lan, Qin Fuying, Bao Lu, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation indices in Inner Mongolia in recent 55 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019,36(4):963-972. ]
[16]	牟乐, 芦奕晓, 杨惠敏, 等. 1981—2015年中国西北牧区植被覆盖的时空变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018,35(3):615-623.
	[ Mou Le, Lu Yixiao, Yang Huimin, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of vegetation cover in the pastoral area in northwestern China during the period of 1981-2015[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018,35(3):615-623. ]
[17]	张蓓蓓, 王朋, 张辉, 等. 近63 a安康地区降水与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018,35(6):1336-1343.
	[ Zhang Beibei, Wang Peng, Zhang Hui, et al. Correlation between sunspot activity and precipitation in the Ankang region in recent 63 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2008,35(6):1336-1343. ]
[18]	李琬欣, 熊东红, 张素, 等. 四川凉山州孙水河流域近60年来径流趋势特征分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2020,34(2):130-137.
	[ Li Wanxin, Xiong Donghong, Zhang Su, et al. Trends analysis of Sunshuihe River Basin for the last six decades in Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020,34(2):130-137. ]
[19]	王玉洁, 秦大河. 气候变化及人类活动对西北干旱区水资源影响研究综述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017,13(5):483-493.
	[ Wang Yujie, Qin Dahe. Influence of climate change and human activity water resources in arid region of Northwest China: An overview[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017,13(5):483-493. ]
[20]	Li Baofu, Chen Yaning, Chen Zhongsheng, et al. Why does precipitation in Northwest China show a significant increasing trend from 1960 to 2010?[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2016,167:275-284.
[21]	任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等. 中国气温变化研究最新进展[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2005,10(4):701-716.
	[ Ren Guoyu, Chu Ziying, Zhou Yaqing, et al. Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2005,10(4):701-716. ]
[22]	黄领梅, 沈冰. 和田河汇入塔里木河径流演变及成因分析[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2012,23(2):26-28, 32.
	[ Huang Lingmei, Shen Bing. Analysis on runoff evolution and cause of Hotan River flowing into the Tarim River[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2012,23(2):26-28, 32. ]
[23]	董弟文, 阿布都热合曼·哈力克, 王大伟, 等. 近60年和田河源流区径流特征及对气候变化的响应[J]. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2018,16(6):536-543.
	[ Dong Diwen, Abdirahman Halik, Wang Dawei, et al. Characteristics of runoff and response to climate change in the Hotan river source area in recent six decades[J]. Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 2018,16(6):536-543. ]
[24]	刘时银. 冰川观测与研究方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012.
	[ Liu Shiyin. Glacier Observation and Research Methods[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2012. ]
[25]	陈亚宁, 李稚, 范煜婷, 等. 西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J]. 地理学报, 2014,69(9):1295-1304.
	[ Chen Yaning, Li Zhi, Fan Yuting, et al. Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(9):1295-1304. ]
[26]	杨鹏, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 等. 2003—2012年新疆塔里木河径流量变化与断流分析[J]. 资源科学, 2015,37(3):485-493.
	[ Yang Peng, Chen Yaning, Li Weihong, et al. Analysis of changes in runoff and drying in the Tarim River from 2003 to 2012[J]. Resources Science, 2015,37(3):485-493. ]
[27]	陈忠升. 中国西北干旱区河川径流变化及归因定量辨识[D]. 上海: 华东师范大学, 2016.
	[ Chen Zhongsheng. Quantitative Identification of River Runoff Change and its Attribution in the Arid Region of Northwest China[D]. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2016. ]

时段	年份	最大值/10⁸m	年份	最小值/10⁸m³	均值/10⁸m³	极值比	变化率/%	年景
1957—2018	1961	31.80	1965	12.27	22.27	2.59	-	-
1957—1960	1959	24.05	1958	20.19	21.77	1.19	-2%	平水年
1961—1970	1961	31.80	1962	16.42	21.50	1.93	-3%	平水年
1971—1980	1978	31.26	1972	17.09	22.35	1.82	0%	平水年
1981—1990	1983	25.59	1989	17.25	22.08	1.48	0%	平水年
1991—2000	1994	28.64	1993	14.96	20.36	1.91	-8%	平水年
2001—2010	2010	30.25	2004	17.06	22.95	1.77	3%	平水年
2011—2018	2015	28.19	2014	19.44	25.25	1.45	13%	偏丰水年

时段	年份	最大值/10⁸m³	年份	最小值/10⁸m³	均值/10⁸m³	极值比	变化率/%	年景
1957—2018	1961	37.12	1965	12.24	23.18	3.03	-	-
1957—1960	1959	27.00	1957	22.02	24.22	1.23	4%	平水年
1961—1970	1961	37.12	1962	20.46	22.65	1.81	-2%	平水年
1971—1980	1978	31.20	1975	17.26	22.57	1.81	-2%	平水年
1981—1990	1990	23.99	1989	14.74	21.21	1.63	-9%	平水年
1991—2000	1994	31.71	1993	13.59	21.12	2.33	-9%	平水年
2001—2010	2006	30.69	2009	16.57	24.37	1.85	5%	平水年
2011—2018	2016	32.24	2014	21.77	27.62	1.48	19%	偏丰水年

时段	春季		夏季		秋季		冬季
时段	乌站	同站	乌站	同站	乌站	同站	乌站	同站
1957—1960	-27%	-27%	-1%	9%	4%	2%	-12%	-28%
1961—1970	-10%	-6%	-1%	-1%	-5%	-3%	-26%	-18%
1971—1980	2%	-4%	-5%	0%	-18%	-16%	-4%	-17%
1981—1990	-7%	-3%	1%	-8%	-9%	-16%	-7%	-11%
1991—2000	-7%	-7%	-10%	-10%	-4%	-6%	-6%	-3%
2001—2010	11%	11%	-1%	3%	12%	32%	25%	25%
2011—2018	23%	26%	16%	16%	27%	35%	20%	32%

Evolution characteristics of the headstream of the Hotan River headstream from 1957 to 2018

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 11

References 27

Related Articles 10

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	SUN Kuan, SUN Xueyan, TANG Yan, ZHANG Yaling, LIU Fugang, FAN Kesheng, YANG Ziqiong, QU Zhiqiang. Temporal and spatial variations in multi-year surface sensible heat flux in Qinghai Province [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(1): 36-49.
[2]	HU Guanglu,TAO Hu,JIAO Jiao,BAI Yuanru,CHEN Haizhi,MA Jin. Runoff trend and attribution analysis of the Zhengyi Gorge in the middle reaches of the Heihe River [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(9): 1414-1424.
[3]	JI Zonghu, SUN Dongyuan, NIU Zuirong, WANG Xingfan, WU Lanzhen, MA Yali, CHEN Caiping, CUI Yanqiang. Characteristics of precipitation changes in the Shule River Basin [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1583-1594.
[4]	HUANG Xing,CHEN Fulong,ZHAO Qi,HE Chaofei,LONG Aihua. Evaluation and combination analysis of runoff in Hotan River, Xinjiang [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(6): 1570-1578.
[5]	ZHANG Yang, CHU Xin zheng, YANG Shao min, GUO Chao. Climate Change in North Xinjiang in Recent 56 Years [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(1): 212-219.
[6]	NING He-Ping, ZHANG Jian-Yong, FANG Feng- , AO Ze-Jian. Response of Shallow Geotemperature to Climatic Change  in the Maqu Area in Upper Reaches of the Yellow River [J]. , 2013, 30(5): 802-807.
[7]	WANG Hui, LONG Xiao, MA Xu-Lin, LIU Yan-Fei. Precipitation in the Eastern Part of Northwest China in Recent 50 Years [J]. , 2013, 30(4): 712-718.
[8]	LI Guo-Dong, ZHANG Jun-Hua, WANG Nai-Ang, CHENG Hong-Yi, ZHAO Li-Ping. Prediction of Climate Change Trend Based on Rescaled Range Analysis and Nonperiodic Cycle Analysis—A Case Study in Lanzhou City [J]. , 2013, 30(2): 299-307.
[9]	MA Zhong-Hua, ZHANG Bo , WANG Xing-Mei , ZOU Yue, ZHANG Ya-Ning. Analysis on Change of Daily Extreme Precipitation Frequency and Intensity in Gansu Province in Summer during the Period of 1959-2008 [J]. , 2012, 29(2): 296-302.
[10]	ZUO Min, CHEN Hong-wu, WANG Lei, FENG Zhi-min, WANG Hai-lei. Monitoring and Analysis on Overflow in the Hotan River Basin Based on MODIS Data [J]. , 2011, 28(3): 438-443.