Abstract: In this paper, the Monte-carlo method and the Nearest Neighbor Bootstrap Regressive model was combined to predict annual precipitation in Inner Mongolia based on the 40-year meteorological data observed by Wuyuan Meteorological Station in the study area. The results predicted with the Monte-carlo method can reflect well the randomicity and regularity of precipitation in the study area, but the order of precipitation series cannot be reflected exactly, and there may be a misunderstanding about the predicted series of precipitation. In this paper, the Monte-carlo prediction series was used to resort the predicted series based on the most similar theory, ]thus the statistical regularity and similarity of precipitation series can be reflected by the predicted series, and the randomicity of individual precipitation series can also be reflected. The test verified that the model is quite rational and applicable.

Key words: precipitation, prediction model, Montecarlo method, NNBR model, Inner Mongolia