甘肃省土地利用转型时空格局演化及多情景模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.11

Abstract

Abstract:

Exploring the transition situation of land use in ecologically significant but underdeveloped areas is crucial for promoting urban-rural integration and achieving regional sustainable development. Using the land use data from five time points in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzed the quantitative distribution, spatial patterns, and mutual transfer of land use types. The Future Land Use Simulation model was used to simulate the land use transformation under four scenarios of inertia development, urban-rural integration, planning constraints, and ecological restoration in 2035. The study found that: (1) The main land use types in Gansu Province are cultivated land, grassland, and unused land, exhibiting significant regional heterogeneity in spatial distribution. The comprehensive land use dynamics initially increased, then decreased, before increasing again. (2) Under the influence of the continuous promotion of the Western Development Strategy and the policy of returning farmland to forest and grassland, the land use transition in the Gansu Province is mainly manifested in the transfer of cultivated land to grassland and woodland, and the transfer of construction land to cultivated land and grassland. (3) Under the two scenarios of urban-rural integration and planning constraints, the results of land use simulation are reasonable, considering cultivated land protection and regional ecological environment restoration, which can meet the needs of future development. This study provides a valuable reference for land governance and spatial planning in Gansu Province.

Key words: land use transition, spatiotemporal characteristics, multiscenario simulation, urban-rural integration, Gansu

WANG Liyuan, ZHANG Yong. Evolution of spatiotemporal patterns and multiscenario simulation of land use transition in Gansu Province[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(4): 695-707.

Figures/Tables 8

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 1

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

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数据类型	数据名称	数据精度	数据来源
土地利用数据	土地利用数据	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
限制因子	水域	1 km
限制因子	自然保护区	1 km
社会经济因素	人口密度	1 km
社会经济因素	GDP	1 km
自然环境因素	高程（DEM）	30 m	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
	坡度	30 m	根据DEM数据由ArcGIS生成
	坡向	30 m	根据DEM数据由ArcGIS生成
	年降水量	1 km	国家青藏高原科学数据中心
	年平均气温	1 km	国家青藏高原科学数据中心
交通可达因素	到河流距离	1 km	1:1000000全国基础地理数据库，由ArcGIS生成
	到国道距离	1 km
	到省道距离	1 km
	到高速距离	1 km
	到铁路距离	1 km
行政区划数据	甘肃省行政边界	-	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）

土地利用类型	2000年		2005年		2010年		2015年		2020年
土地利用类型	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
耕地	65595	15.42	65509	15.39	65057	15.29	64888	15.25	63883	15.01
林地	37636	8.84	38156	8.97	38530	9.05	38533	9.06	38517	9.05
草地	142700	33.54	142923	33.59	143014	33.61	142952	33.59	143664	33.76
水域	3304	0.78	3293	0.77	3545	0.83	3535	0.83	3841	0.90
建设用地	3541	0.83	3770	0.89	4283	1.01	4745	1.12	5564	1.31
未利用地	172744	40.60	171870	40.39	171092	40.21	170868	40.16	170031	39.96

土地利用类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	综合动态度
2000—2005年	-0.03	0.28	0.03	-0.06	1.29	-0.10	1.79
2005—2010年	-0.14	0.20	0.01	1.53	2.73	-0.09	4.69
2010—2015年	-0.05	0.007	-0.01	-0.06	2.15	-0.03	2.30
2015—2020年	-0.31	-0.01	0.10	1.73	3.46	-0.10	5.70

	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
2000—2005年
耕地	63890.9	250.9	1208.1	10.8	171.5	61.1
林地	83.9	37399.5	147.3	1.7	13.2	8.3
草地	828.3	503.2	141155.3	13.2	29.8	135.5
水域	14.0	1.3	29.4	3220.7	1.9	35.6
建设用地	12.0	1.4	6.8	0.6	3547.7	0.6
未利用地	677.1	18.2	339.9	45.2	33.5	171622.8
2005—2010年
耕地	62075.8	305.5	2343.0	36.4	512.6	232.5
林地	176.5	37613.1	268.7	22.9	18.1	74.8
草地	1753.7	545.8	138923.2	63.9	112.0	1486.5
水域	42.2	6.6	35.5	3100.1	6.8	100.8
建设用地	221.3	8.3	26.0	1.5	3517.2	23.1
未利用地	785.4	69.2	1377.9	318.7	145.2	169165.4
2010—2015年
耕地	63944.2	60.0	678.3	24.6	287.7	59.5
林地	60.7	38238.7	222.1	4.4	6.3	15.5
草地	627.5	213.7	141814.9	28.5	61.7	227.5
水域	12.1	2.1	18.7	3389.0	2.7	118.5
建设用地	40.0	2.0	12.2	0.9	4254.7	2.1
未利用地	202.8	15.9	203.5	86.7	131.7	170441.7
2015—2020年
耕地	61238.6	199.9	2362.3	54.7	558.9	468.1
林地	139.3	37711.9	576.2	13.7	44.9	40.9
草地	1716.1	489.7	139259.5	66.8	296.5	1098.8
水域	38.1	11.1	58.9	3313.5	17.0	92.0
建设用地	270.2	14.5	104.3	8.0	4252.3	95.4
未利用地	477.8	84.5	1291.0	381.0	394.8	168223.2

Evolution of spatiotemporal patterns and multiscenario simulation of land use transition in Gansu Province

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