“三北”工程地区植被覆盖变化特征及其驱动力分析——以宁夏为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.12

Abstract

Abstract:

Ningxia as the only province whose entire territory is included in the “Three-North project,” has an extremely important ecological location. This study investigated the temporal-spatial variation in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and quantified the impact of climate variations (CV) and human activities (HA) on NDVI based on various datasets (e.g., NDVI and meteorological dataset) and methods(e.g., trend analysis and residual trend analysis). The trend of future NDVI in the Ningxia was also determined using the Hurst index. Results demonstrated that (1) NDVI fluctuated, showing an increase at a rate of 7.6×10^-3 a^-1 during the study period. The spatial distribution of NDVI was heterogeneous, showing the characteristics of “Yellow River diversion irrigation area and southern mountainous area high and central-arid zone low.” NDVI in the Ningxia generally belonged to low-level vegetation cover (0.2<NDVI≤0.4) with a proportion of >50%. (2) NDVI exhibited an overall increasing trend across 94.94% of the total Ningxia from 2001 to 2020. Furthermore, 65.23% of vegetation of the study area in the future may be at potential risk of degradation. (3) Both CV and HA exerted a positive effect on the amelioration of NDVI, and increases in NDVI in 89.49% of the total Ningxia were controlled by the interactive effect of CV and HA. Among the climate factors, precipitation played a major role in promoting the change of NDVI. (4) The relative contribution rates of CV and HA to changes in NDVI were 43.79% and 56.21%, respectively. Overall, in future programs on vegetation restoration and ecological construction, the primary role of human activities in increasing vegetation cover should be actively exploited, and monitoring and management of the existing vegetation should be strengthened to avoid its degradation trend.

Key words: changes in vegetation cover, climate variations, human activities, driving forces, Ningxia

QI Ronglian, LI Qingbo, REN Jia, ZOU Miao, YANG Haopeng, WEI Yaofeng, TANG Qiong. Study on the characteristics of changes in vegetation cover and its driving forces in the Three-North Shelterbelt program regions: Taking Ningxia as example[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(10): 1740-1752.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Method for calculating relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation cover"

slope(NDVI_obs)	驱动因素	驱动因素的划分依据		驱动因素的贡献率/%
slope(NDVI_obs)	驱动因素	slope(NDVI_CV)	slope(NDVI_HA)	气候变化	人类活动
>0	CV&HA	>0	>0	$s l o p e (N D V I C V) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$	$s l o p e (N D V I H A) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$
	CV	>0	<0	100	0
	HA	<0	>0	0	100
<0	CV&HA	<0	<0	$s l o p e (N D V I C V) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$	$s l o p e (N D V I H A) s l o p e (N D V I o b s)$
	CV	<0	>0	100	0
	HA	>0	<0	0	100

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 2

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

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Fig. 9

Fig. 10

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变化趋势	Hurst指数	叠加变化类型	像元数/个	面积占比/%
>0	0.35≤H<0.50	弱反持续性&改善	28249	54.39
<0	0.35≤H<0.50	弱反持续性&退化	1205	2.32
>0	0.50≤H<0.65	弱持续性&改善	15653	30.14
<0	0.50≤H<0.65	弱持续性&退化	1048	2.02
>0	0.00≤H<0.35	强反持续性&改善	4355	8.38
<0	0.00≤H<0.35	强反持续性&退化	148	0.28
>0	0.65≤H<1.00	强持续性&改善	1056	2.03
<0	0.65≤H<1.00	强持续性&退化	227	0.44

Study on the characteristics of changes in vegetation cover and its driving forces in the Three-North Shelterbelt program regions: Taking Ningxia as example

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