天山北坡中段雪岭云杉径向生长对气候变化的响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.08.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Analyzing the response of tree radial growth to climate change is crucial for accurately predicting the dynamic changes in forests in the future. The temperate coniferous forest, dominated by Picea schrenkiana, is widely distributed in the mid-mountain zone on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. In this study, core samples of high-altitude Picea schrenkiana were collected, and the response characteristics of Picea schrenkiana radial growth to climatic factors and drought events were explored using tree-ring analysis. The results showed the following: (1) From 1960 to 2020, the tree-ring width index of Picea schrenkiana showed a significant upward trend without any growth recession, indicating favorable growth conditions in recent years. (2) The tree-ring width of Picea schrenkiana was mainly positively correlated with temperature from June to August, precipitation in April, and scPDSI in all months except July. Sliding correlation analysis showed an unstable relationship between tree-ring width and climatic factors. After 1991, the positive response of spruce to climatic factors was further strengthened. (3) The percentage of radial growth change in Picea schrenkiana was less than -25% from 1879 to 1880, indicating a growth decline from 1879 to 1885. An increase in drought frequency and intensity resulted in a decrease in the resistance and resilience of Picea schrenkiana to drought events. When Picea schrenkiana was in a relatively sufficient water environment for a long time and suffered from sudden drought events, it exhibited a significant decline in resistance and was prone to growth decline. In summary, under the influence of climate change, warming is still expected to promote the radial growth of high-altitude Picea schrenkiana in the region in the near future. However, the increase in the frequency and intensity of drought events during the warming process will further reduce the resistance and resilience of Picea schrenkiana, posing an increased risk of growth decline. In the near future, Picea schrenkiana will face the challenge of balancing growth promotion due to warming and growth inhibition due to drought. Further observation and research are required to understand the ultimate impact. In the future, various methods should be implemented to closely monitor the growth dynamics of Picea schrenkiana.

Key words: Picea schrenkianan, tree ring, radial growth, climate change, resistance, recovery, northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

ZHOU Xiaodong, CHANG Shunli, WANG Guanzheng, ZHANG Yutao, YU Shulong, ZHANG Tongwen. Radial growth response of Picea schrenkiana to climate change in the middle section of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(8): 1215-1228.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 68

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年表特征
样本量(芯/树)	47(28)
时间段	1805—2021年
平均敏感度（MS）	0.126
标准差（MD）	0.266
一阶自相关系数（AC1）	0.620
序列间相关系数（R）	0.219
树内相关系数（R1）	0.625
树间相关系数（R2）	0.212
信噪比（SNR）	13.166
样本总体解释量（EpS）	0.929
第一主成分方差解释量（pC1）/%	38.9
子样本信号（SSS）>0.85	1845年

Radial growth response of Picea schrenkiana to climate change in the middle section of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains

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