西北干旱半干旱区NDVI季节性变化及其影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.12.10

Abstract

Abstract:

The study of vegetation dynamics and its influencing factors can reveal the response mechanism between vegetation cover dynamics and climate change and has important significance for regional vegetation restoration and ecological sustainability. Based on MODIS multitemporal remote sensing satellite data, this study investigated the quarterly changes in vegetation cover in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China from 2000-2020 using variation coefficient, Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, correlation analysis, and Hurst index. The study found that: (1) The spatial variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was high in winters, and the high fluctuation areas were mainly in the grasslands and unused land areas in the Daxinganling region of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. (2) NDVI fluctuates more with the seasons and is most obvious in forests and cultivated areas. (3) NDVI is mainly improving, with the largest improvement in springs (84.63%), the smallest in winters (72.52%), and the most significant improvement in the woodland areas. (4) Surface temperature and precipitation influenced NDVI in all seasons (Significance = 0.05), with precipitation changes significantly affecting NDVI trends in summers and weakly during winters and surface temperature changes significantly affecting NDVI trends in springs and weakly in autumns. (5) The future NDVI also mainly shows an improving trend, with an area of 70.89%; notably, the degraded areas are sporadically distributed in the Tarim and Junggar Basins of Xinjiang. This study’s results provide theoretical references for ecological restoration and management in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China and the response to local climate warming and humidification.

Key words: NDVI, trends in vegetation cover, influencing factors, MODIS, future projections, arid and semi-arid region, Northwest China

WU Wanmin, LIU Tao, CHEN Xin. Seasonal changes of NDVI in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China and its influencing factors[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(12): 1969-1981.

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S_NDVI	\|Z\|	变化趋势
S>0	\|Z\|≥ 2.58	极显著改善
S>0	1.96≤ \|Z\|<2.58	显著改善
S>0	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著改善
S<0	\|Z\| ≥2.58	极显著退化
S<0	1.96 ≤\|Z\|<2.58	显著退化
S<0	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著退化

近年NDVI变化趋势	所占面积百分比/%
极显著改善	25.05
显著改善	13.98
不显著改善	31.86
极显著退化	6.58
显著退化	5.12
不显著退化	17.41

近年NDVI变化趋势	所占面积百分比/%
短期预测	35.29
长期预测	64.71

Seasonal changes of NDVI in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China and its influencing factors

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