基于CMIP5的中国区域气溶胶变化及其对降水的影响

Abstract

Abstract: Aerosol plays an important role in the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere. As more and more aerosols are discharged into the atmosphere due to the enhancement of human activities, the climate problems caused by aerosol emissions have also attracted wide attention. The purposes of this study were to analyze the change of aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and its effects on precipitation by applying the linear trend analysis, correlation analysis and empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The spatiotemporal variation of aerosol and its effects on precipitation since the industrial revolution in China was also approached based on the multi-mode experimental data provided by the Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The result showed that the variation of AOD in China was in an increase trend from 1860 to 2000 (P<0.001), the increase trend was more significant in the area east of the “Hu’s Line” than that in the area west of it and after 1945. The increase rate after 1945 [0.380 7·(100a)^-1] was significantly higher than that before 1945 [0.029 0·(100a)^-1]. In the experiments in which the aerosol change was considered only, as the aerosol emissions were increased, precipitation was obviously decreased in 93.1% area of China (P<0.001). Precipitation was reduced predominantly in most of the southeast China, Sichuan Basin and southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the trend of precipitation reduction in northwest China was moderate. The decrease trend of precipitation was more significant after 1962 than that before it. The decrease rates were 118.04 mm·(100a)^-1 in period after 1962 and 26.67 mm·(100a)^-1 in period before 1962. The increase of aerosol emission served a role in the lessening of rainfall events’ frequency and precipitation intensity by inhibiting the light precipitation, and their reduction rates were 3.16 d·(100a)^-1, 0.162 4 mm·d^-1·(100a)^-1, respectively. It provides an important scientific basis to study the climatic effects of AOD’s change on precipitation since the industrial revolution for better response to regional climate change in the future.

Key words: CMIP5, aerosol optical thickness (AOD), precipitation change, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), China

ZHAO Hong-fei, YANG Yi, DONG Jia-qi, LI Yu-zhen, LI Long-hui. Variation of Aerosol and Its Effects on Precipitation in China Based on CMIP5 Models[J].Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(4): 953-962.

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Variation of Aerosol and Its Effects on Precipitation in China Based on CMIP5 Models

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