温度升高下降水和施氮对旱地春小麦产量和生物量影响的模拟与分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.26

Abstract

Abstract:

To explore the effects of temperature increase, water decrease, and nitrogen application on spring wheat yield and biomass in semi-arid areas. Based on the meteorological data from 1971 to 2018 in the Anding District, Dingxi City, and the field test data from 2014 to 2018 in the Anjiagou Village, Fengxiang Town, Anding District, Dingxi City, and Gansu Province, this study conducted five temperature gradient (0 ℃,0.5 ℃,1 ℃,1.5 ℃,2 ℃), five precipitation gradient (?20%, ?10%, 0%, 10%, and 20%), and four nitrogen treatments (0 kg?hm^?2, 55 kg?hm^?2, 110 kg?hm^?2, and 220 kg?hm^?2) to analyze the yield and biomass of spring wheat in dryland using regression equation, single factor analysis, and interaction analysis. The wheat yield was analyzed using the relationship between temperature increase and nitrogen application. The results show that: (1) The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of wheat yield and biomass simulated by the model was 7.47% and 7.66%, respectively, and the model validity index was 0.91 and 0.85, respectively. The NRMSE of wheat yield and biomass simulated by the model was 1.73%, and the model validity index was 0.98. The results showed that the model could well reflect the effects of temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen application on spring wheat yield and biomass. (2) When the temperature increased, spring wheat yield and biomass showed a parabolic negative effect. Spring wheat yield and biomass presented a downward parabola with a threshold of 122.11 kg?hm^?2 and 129.06 kg?hm^?2, respectively, and the optimal yield and biomass values were 2574.86 kg?hm^?2 and 5777.39 kg?hm^?2, respectively. The increased precipitation has a positive opening parabolic effect on spring wheat yield and biomass. (3) The interaction between the temperature and the nitrogen application rate was negative. The interaction between temperature and precipitation was negative. The interaction between the nitrogen application rate and precipitation was positive. (4) When the yield was optimal at 0 ℃,0.5 ℃,1 ℃,1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃, precipitation should be increased by 20%, and nitrogen application should be 156.2 kg?hm^?2, 149.6 kg?hm^?2, 131.56 kg?hm^?2, 110.0 kg?hm^?2, and 107.8 kg?hm^?2, respectively. (5) The effect order of temperature, nitrogen application, and precipitation on yield is precipitation > nitrogen application > temperature. Reasonable coordination of water and nitrogen can mitigate the negative effect of temperature increase on yield.

Key words: APSIM, wheat, temperature, precipitation, nitrogen application, biomass, yield

ZHANG Kang,NIE Zhigang,WANG Jun,LI Guang. Simulation and analysis of the effects of precipitation and nitrogen application on the yield and biomass of spring wheat in dryland under elevated temperature[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1966-1975.

Figures/Tables 9

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 1

Tab. 3

regression equation of dependent variable"

因变量	方程
产量	$Y 产量 = 2076.30 - 452.84 X 1 + 3628.31 X 2 + 1796.58 X 3 + 90.92 X 1 2 + 1254.227 X 2 2 - 1618.41 X 3 2 - 1733.76 X 1 X 2 - 345.71 X 1 X 3 + 487.02 X 2 X 3$
生物量	$Y 生物量 = 4270.61 - 1668.56 X 1 + 7626.84 X 2 + 5605.56 X 3 + 767.23 X 1 2 + 2721.27 X 2 2 - 4888.72 X 3 2 - 4143.39 X 1 X 2 - 535.81 X 1 X 3 + 598.04 X 2 X 3$

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Equation of single factor effect"

因变量	因素	方程
产量	温度	$Y 1 = 2076.30 - 452.84 X 1 + 90.92 X 1 2$
	降水量	$Y 2 = 2076.30 + 3628.31 X 2 + 1254.227 X 2 2$
	施氮量	$Y 3 = 2076.30 + 1796.58 X 3 - 1618.41 X 3 2$
生物量	温度	$Y 4 = 4270.61 - 1668.56 X 1 + 767.23 X 1 2$
	降水量	$Y 5 = 4270.61 + 7626.84 X 2 + 2721.27 X 2 2$
	施氮量	$Y 6 = 4270.61 + 5605.56 X 3 - 4888.72 X 3 2$

Tab. 4

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

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参数	取值
灌浆到成熟的积温（℃）	580
春化系数	1
光周期系数	2
最大灌浆速率(mg·grain^-1·d^-1)	2.30
分蘖重(g·tiller^-1)	1.22
单株重(g)	4
株高(mm)	1000
播种期地表蒸发系数(土壤)	7.20
发芽期地表蒸发系数(土壤)	6.20

Simulation and analysis of the effects of precipitation and nitrogen application on the yield and biomass of spring wheat in dryland under elevated temperature

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温度变化量/℃	编码	降水变化比例/%	编码	施氮变化量/（kg?hm^-2）	编码
0	0	-20	0	0	0
0.5	0.25	-10	0.25	55	0.25
1	0.5	0	0.5	110	0.5
1.5	0.75	10	0.75	220	1
2	1	20	1

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