塔里木河下游水生态安全评价及驱动要素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.05

Abstract

Abstract:

Due to the continuous strengthening of the unified water resource management programs in the Tarim River Basin, the ecological water transport in its lower reaches has increased, and periodic improvements in ecological protection have been achieved. However, there is a lack of scientific evaluation regarding the impact of strict water resource management program on the water ecological security status and changes. This study used principal component analysis and comprehensive coefficient method to evaluate the water ecological security status and reveal the changing characteristics of the driving factors affecting it. The analyses were based on the 2000 to 2017 index data of water quantity, groundwater depth of the monitored section, new Populus euphratica biomass, vegetation coverage, and drought indices in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The results showed that from 2000 to 2017 the comprehensive water ecological security evaluation index increased from 39.1 to 84.7, and the ecological security level continuously improved, changing the area from a “moderate warning” to a “safe” area. Hydrological and vegetative influences are the two driving factors affecting downstream water ecological security; therefore, the volume of discharge, groundwater depth, and vegetation diversity significantly impact water ecological security. This study could provide an important scientific basis for optimizing the ecological water transport model in the lower reaches of the Tarim River.

Key words: Tarim River, downstream ecological safety assessment, principal component analysis, driving factor

LI Mengyi,DENG Mingjiang,LING Hongbo,WANG Guangyan,XU Shengwu. Evaluation of ecological water security and analysis of driving factors in the lower Tarim River, China[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(1): 39-47.

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评价指标	指标级别划分标准与指标赋值
评价指标	I（10分）	II（8分）	III（6分）	IV（4分）	V（2分）
下泄水量（X₁）	>6	4.5~6	3.5~4.5	2~3.5	<2
水量补给（X₂）	>5.7	3.8~5.7	3~3.8	1.6~3	<1.6
地下水埋深（X₃）	2~4	4~4.5	4.5~5	5~6	>6
植被覆盖度（X₄）	>0.2	0.15~0.2	0.1~0.15	0.05~0.1	<0.05
胡杨新增生物量（X₅）	>50	35~50	30~35	20~30	<20
植被多样性（X₆）	>1.5	1~1.5	0.5~1	0.3~0.5	<0.3
干旱指数（X₇）	<0.46	0.46~0.57	0.57~0.76	0.76~0.86	>0.86

成分	特征值	成分贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
1	4.22	60.29	60.29
2	1.45	20.69	80.99
3	0.73	10.40	91.39

	主成分1	主成分2	主成分3
X₁	0.83	0.48	-0.24
X₂	0.85	0.17	-0.11
X₃	0.81	0.51	-0.26
X₄	0.83	-0.31	0.36
X₅	0.89	-0.38	0.05
X₆	0.82	0.51	-0.26
X₇	-0.12	0.77	0.62

	主成分1	主成分2	主成分3	综合得分F	排名	权重r_j
X₁	0.40	0.40	-0.28	0.32	1	0.18
X₂	0.39	0.42	-0.30	0.32	2	0.17
X₃	0.41	0.14	-0.12	0.29	3	0.16
X₄	0.41	-0.25	0.42	0.26	4	0.14
X₅	0.40	-0.26	0.32	0.24	5	0.13
X₆	0.43	-0.31	0.06	0.22	6	0.12
X₇	-0.06	0.64	0.73	0.19	7	0.10

Evaluation of ecological water security and analysis of driving factors in the lower Tarim River, China

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