1960—2018年博斯腾湖水位变化特征及其影响因素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.06

Abstract

Abstract:

Using measurements of the water level and runoff into the lake as well as data from meteorological stations of Bosten Lake from 1960 to 2018, this paper provides a detailed analysis of the trend in water level change based on ensemble empirical mode decompsition and the water balance model. In addition, this paper uses the climate elasticity method to explore the response of the water level to hydroclimatic factors in different time periods, and then analyzes the complex response of the lake water level to climate change and human activities. The results revealed the following: (1) The lake level shows a significant decreasing trend from 1960 to 2018, which is shown in the four periods as “descending-rising-descending-rising”. (2) Ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis results show that the water level of Bosten Lake has periodic oscillations of 3-4 a and 8-9 a on the interannual scale, and 29-30 a and 33-34 a on the interdecadal scale. (3) The contributions of precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration to runoff to the Kaidu River, Huangshui River, and Yanqi Basin from 1960 to 2018 were approximately 85.1%, 42.1%, and 23.8%, respectively. Other factors contributed approximately 14.9%, 57.9%, and 76.2% to the runoff. (4) The prime reason for the decline in water level in Bosten Lake from 1960 to 1987 was the decrease in runoff into the lake and substantial evaporation of the lake surface. Increase in lake water intake due to the climate change was the main cause of rise in water level from 1988 to 2002. The decrease in runoff into the lake and increase in the amount of lake water are responsible factors for the decreased water level from 2003 to 2014. An increase in lake water intake and strict controls on discharge from 2015 to 2018 were the major reasons for the rising water level in Bosten Lake.

Key words: Bosten Lake, water level change, ensemble empirical mode decomposition, water balance, climate elasticity, influence factors

LI Yujiao,CHEN Yaning,ZHANG Qifei,FANG Gonghuan. Analysis of the change in water level and its influencing factors on Bosten Lake from 1960 to 2018[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(1): 48-58.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test of Bosten Lake water level and runoff from different hydrological stations"

因子	$Z$	$Sig$	$α$ =0.01	突变时间	趋势	显著性
水位	-4.24	0.00002	2.56	1966年	下降	显著
大山口径流	3.19	0.00140	2.56	1996年	上升	显著
黄水沟径流	2.86	0.00430	2.56	1992年	上升	显著
焉耆站径流	0.48	0.62990	2.56	1991年	上升	不显著

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Tab. 3

Fig. 5

Tab. 4

Changes of climatic elements and runoff in different periods"

	阶段	P/mm	ET₀/mm	T/℃	Q/mm	R_c	φ	$ρ P, Q$	$ρ T, Q$	$ρ E T 0, Q$
山口	1960—1996年	257.30	632.60	-4.70	174.70	0.68	2.46	0.58^**	0.32	-2.44
	1997—2018年	303.90	642.90	-3.60	211.50	0.70	2.12	0.61^**	0.05	0.52^*
	1960—2018年	274.70	636.50	-4.30	188.40	0.69	2.32	0.69^**	0.43^**	-0.17
黄水沟	1960—1992年	192.52	1048.32	6.17	57.66	0.30	5.45	0.60^**	0.21	-0.47^**
	1993—2017年	237.57	977.91	7.14	83.56	0.35	4.12	0.80^**	-0.01	-0.42^*
	1960—2017年	211.94	1017.97	6.59	68.83	0.32	4.80	0.75^**	0.34^*	-0.57^**
焉耆	1960—1991年	71.23	919.20	8.20	55.80	0.78	12.90	0.18	0.20	-0.08
	1992—2016年	82.95	864.00	9.10	63.80	0.77	10.40	0.17	0.13	-0.54^**
	1960—2016年	76.38	895.01	8.60	59.33	0.78	11.72	0.21	0.22^*	-0.36^**

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Effects of changes in temperature precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on runoff"

	弹性系数			$Δ P$ /mm	$Δ E T 0 / mm$	$Δ T$ / $mm$	$Δ Q$ / $mm$	$Δ P / P —$ /%	$Δ E T 0 ET 0 —$ /%	$Δ T / T$ /%	$Δ Q / Q$ /%	$Δ Q (P)$ /mm	$Δ Q (T)$ /mm	$Δ Q$ (ET₀)/mm	$Δ Q c$ /mm	$Δ Q v$ /mm
	$ε P$	$ε T$	$ε E T 0$	$Δ P$ /mm	$Δ E T 0 / mm$	$Δ T$ / $mm$	$Δ Q$ / $mm$	$Δ P / P —$ /%	$Δ E T 0 ET 0 —$ /%	$Δ T / T$ /%	$Δ Q / Q$ /%	$Δ Q (P)$ /mm	$Δ Q (T)$ /mm	$Δ Q$ (ET₀)/mm	$Δ Q c$ /mm	$Δ Q v$ /mm
大山口	0.65	-0.31	-0.67	46.61	10.33	1.10	36.82	18.11	1.63	-23.40	21.08	20.56	12.67	-1.91	31.32	5.50
黄水沟	0.93	0.98	-2.85	45.05	-70.41	0.97	25.90	23.00	-7.00	16.00	45.00	12.30	9.00	-10.40	10.90	15.00
焉耆	0.13	0.90	-0.98	11.72	-55.20	0.90	8.00	16.00	-6.00	11.00	14.00	1.20	3.10	-6.20	1.90	6.10

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Tab. 7

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IMF分量	IMF1	IMF2	IMF3	IMF4	RES
周期/a	3.28	8.89	29.50	33.83
与水位距平的相关系数	0.29^*	0.23	0.90^**	0.39^**	0.29^*
贡献率/%	6.88	7.61	83.04	1.68	0.79
显著性检验/%	<90	>95	>95	>95

阶段	湖泊水量变化量/（km³·a^-1）	湖泊补给量				湖水消耗量				地下水交换量+误差 /（km³·a^-1）	占比/%
阶段	湖泊水量变化量/（km³·a^-1）	入湖径流量 /（km³·a^-1）	占比 /%	湖面降水量 /（km³·a^-1）	占比 /%	湖面蒸发量 /（km³·a^-1）	占比 /%	出湖水量 /（km³·a^-1）	占比 /%	地下水交换量+误差 /（km³·a^-1）	占比/%
1960—1987年	-0.11	1.92	48	0.07	2	0.93	23	1.15	29	-0.07	2
1988—2002年	0.28	2.72	55	0.10	2	0.83	18	1.48	30	-0.23	5
2003—2014年	-0.28	2.14	46	0.07	1	0.94	20	1.65	35	-0.11	2
2015—2018年	0.50	2.84	53	0.08	1	1.08	20	1.45	27	-0.09	2

时间阶段	大山口径流量/km³	宝浪苏木入湖径流量/km³	大山口—宝浪苏木段引耗水量/km³
1960—1987年	3.22	1.92	1.16
1988—2002年	3.86	2.72	1.02
2003—2014年	3.64	2.14	0.97
2015—2018年	3.94	2.82	0.66

年份	耕地/km²	林地/km²	草地/km²	水域/km²	未利用地/km²	城乡居民工矿用地/km²
1980	1691	428	20143	1133	19325	78
1995	1775	450	19796	1134	19536	100
2005	1900	495	19619	1162	19486	128
2015	2207	455	19636	1162	19202	133

Analysis of the change in water level and its influencing factors on Bosten Lake from 1960 to 2018

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