过去近60 a黄河流域降水时空变化特征及未来30 a变化趋势

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近60 a来,黄河流域的气候发生了明显的改变,对流域地表水文、生态等过程产生了显著影响。利用1961—2018年黄河流域气象站观测的降水资料,分析了近60 a黄河流域降水时空变化特征,在此基础上,利用CMIP6模式中SSP245情景下未来30 a（2018—2047年）的预估结果,结合基于周期叠加的统计预估方法,对未来30 a黄河流域降水的可能变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明：黄河流域降水存在明显的年内、年际和年代际变化特征,显著振荡周期为2~4 a。在整个流域上,年和季节降水在年际尺度上表现出同位相变化特征,而年际变化异常显著区域不同。黄河流域年降水量的变率受季节降水的调制,夏季的降水多而呈现出强烈的区域性,而冬季降水少且全流域变化差异较小;黄河源区的降水在年内和年际尺度上都具有很好的稳定性;流域内受夏季风活动影响区域内的降水减少,受冬季风影响区域内的降水增加。黄河源区过去60 a的年降水表现出20.96 mm·(10a)^-1的增加趋势;预计未来30 a,年降水将以11.53~17.62 mm·(10a)^-1的速率继续增加;河套地区的年降水在过去60 a持续增加,增速为2.71 mm·(10a)^-1,未来年降水也会增加,但增长速率趋为平缓,约为0.52 mm·(10a)^-1;黄河下游地区过去60 a的降水呈现出减少趋势,未来仍会以5.46 mm·(10a)^-1的速率减少。

关键词: 黄河流域, 降水变化特征, 周期叠加外推, CMIP6

Abstract:

The climate of the Yellow River Basin has distinctly changed in the past 60 years, which significantly impacts its surface hydrological and ecological processes. In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin in the past 60 years (1961-2018) were analyzed using in-situ precipitation observations in this basin. Future precipitation trends for the next 30 years (2018-2047) in the Yellow River Basin were projected using outputs from the SSP245 scenario in the CMIP6 model and statistical methods. Results show that there are significant annual, inter-annual, and inter-decadal variations in precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, with a significant oscillation cycle of 2-4 years. For the whole basin, annual and seasonal precipitation is basically isotropic at an inter-annual scale but significant areas of inter-annual variability anomalies are different. Spatial anomalies of precipitation are opposite in the cold season (winter-spring) and the warm season (summer-autumn), with a decrease in precipitation influenced by summer monsoon activity and an increase in precipitation influenced by the winter monsoon. There has been an increasing trend of 20.96 mm·(10a)^-1 in annual precipitation in the Yellow River source area for the past 60 years, and expected annual precipitation will continue to increase at 11.53-17.62 mm·(10a)^-1 over the next 30 years. Annual precipitation in the Hetao area of the Yellow River Basin has continued to increase in the past 60 years at a rate of 2.71 mm·(10a)^-1, but the rate of future increase has slowed to approximately 0.52 mm·(10a)^-1. In lower reaches of the Yellow River, a decreasing trend in precipitation in the past 60 years is presented and will continue to decrease at a rate of 5.46 mm·(10a)^-1.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, precipitation variability characteristics, periodic overlay extrapolation, CMIP6

王澄海,杨金涛,杨凯,张飞民,张晟宁,李课臣,杨毅. 过去近60 a黄河流域降水时空变化特征及未来30 a变化趋势[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(3): 708-722.

WANG Chenghai,YANG Jintao,YANG Kai,ZHANG Feimin,ZHANG Shengning,LI Kechen,YANG Yi. Changing precipitation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin in the last 60 years and tendency prediction for next 30 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 708-722.

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模式名称	所属机构	水平分辨率
BCC-CSM2-MR	国家气候中心（BCC）	1.125°×1.12°
CESM2-WACCM	美国国家大气科学研究中心(NCAR)	1.25°×0.94°
EC-Earth3	欧盟地球系统模式联盟（EC-Earth-Cons）	0.703°×0.703°
GFDL-ESM4	美国国家大气海洋局地球流体动力学实验室（NOAA-GFDL）	1.25°×1.0°
IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国皮埃尔-西蒙拉普拉斯研究所（IPSL）	2.5°×1.26°

	全年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
LV1/%	24.96	45.17	21.47	36.78	69.13
LV2/%	13.65	10.31	12.73	13.41	9.92
LV3/%	9.90	7.41	11.80	7.47	4.87
合计/%	48.51	62.89	46.00	57.66	83.92

	黄河源区	河套地区	黄河下游地区
全年/a	2~4^,4~6^,14	2~4^,6^	2~6^*,12
春季/a	2~5^,3~6^,8	2~6^,8^	2~6^,8^
夏季/a	2~5^*,14	2~4^,6^,8^*	2~4^,6^,15
秋季/a	2~5^,8^	2~4^*,11	2~4^,8^,10
冬季/a	3~5^*,12	3^,4^,16	2~5^*,15