不同时间尺度下新疆气候“暖湿化”特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

21世纪初有研究提出我国西北尤其是新疆气候出现“暖湿化”的论断,但针对不同时间尺度下新疆气候“暖湿化”特征还缺乏明确结论。基于新疆区域观测的气候水文资料,结合近年来发表的新成果,对中国新疆区域历史时期至年代际尺度“暖湿化”特征进行了全面梳理和对比分析,综合评估了新疆气候“暖湿化”在不同时间尺度下的演变特征。结果表明：（1）过去千年和百年新疆气候主要呈“暖干-冷湿”的水热配置特征,近百年存在显著的年代际变化特征,其中20世纪80年代以来经历了明显的“暖湿化”过程,但变幅未超出历史各时段的变率范围;（2）1961年以来北半球中高纬度地区气候总体呈“暖湿化”特征,其中新疆及以北西伯利亚地区、欧洲北部等均有明显的“暖湿化”特征,新疆连接着发生“暖湿化”的高纬度地区和青藏高原地区,说明气候“暖湿化”并不是新疆所独有的,但新疆气候增湿过程在同中纬度地区具有独特性;（3） 1961—2019年新疆气候年际温湿以“暖湿-暖干”配置为主,20世纪90年代之后新疆年及季节多呈暖湿配置;增暖增湿速率在逐气候态时段增强,但在当前时段有减缓趋势,说明增温增湿趋势有阶段性特征,并呈非线性增加态势。虽然近30 a以来新疆气候“暖湿化”趋势明显,变暖程度逐渐增强,蒸发需求旺盛,但降水增加绝对量并不大,当前的增湿特征并不能改变新疆的干旱气候环境。研究成果为不同空间尺度下新疆气候和“暖湿化”评估提供重要的科学基础。

关键词: 干湿变化, 暖湿化, 温湿配置, 多时间尺度, 新疆

Abstract:

Based on the observed climatic and hydrological data in Xinjiang, China, and combined with the new results in recent years, the characteristics of “warming-wetting” trend in Xinjiang region from historical period to interdecadal scale were comprehensively analyzed and compared, and the evolution characteristics of “warming-wetting” trend in Xinjiang region were comprehensively evaluated at different spatial and temporal scales. The results show that: (1) according to the lake sediment and tree-ring reconstruction and wet climate change sequence, found the past climate in Xinjiang in one thousand and one hundred, scale is mainly a “dry-cold and warm-wet”, there is significant decadal variation characteristics, nearly a century of experience since 1980s the obvious “wet” process, but range is not beyond history the variability of each period. (2) the warming and wetting trend was occurred in the northern area, high latitudes in the northern hemisphere since 1961, the pattern is roughly the “T” type, Xinjiang is connected in high latitudes and link of the “wet” Qinghai-Tibet plateau region, the “warming-wetting” trend is not unique to Xinjiang, However, the climate humidification process in Xinjiang is unique in the middle latitude region. (3) The interannual temperature and humidity was dominated by “warm-wet-warm-dry” configuration in Xinjiang during 1961-2019. After the 1990s, the annual and seasonal temperature and humidity configurations were mostly warm and wet in Xinjiang. The rate of warming and humidification increases in each climate state period, but slows down in the current period, indicating that the warming and humidification trend has periodic characteristics and presents a nonlinear increase trend. Although there has been an obvious trend of “warming-wetting” trend in Xinjiang in the past 30 years, and the degree of warming has gradually increased, the absolute amount of precipitation increase is not large, and the current characteristics of humidification can not change the arid climate and arid area in Xinjiang. The research results provide an important scientific basis for the assessment of climate and “warming-wetting” trend in Xinjiang at different spatio-temporal scales.

Key words: dry-wet change, warming-wetting trend, warm-wet configuration, multi-scale pattern, Xinjiang

姚俊强,李漠岩,迪丽努尔·托列吾别克,陈静,毛炜峄. 不同时间尺度下新疆气候“暖湿化”特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(2): 333-346.

YAO Junqiang,LI Moyan,Dilinuer Tuoliewubieke,CHEN Jing,MAO Weiyi. The assessment on “warming-wetting” trend in Xinjiang at multi-scale during 1961-2019[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 333-346.

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