基于MCI的新疆近60 a干旱时空特征分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用新疆99个气象站点1961—2020年逐日气象数据,根据最新修订的《气象干旱等级》国标,计算各站点1961—2020年逐日气象干旱综合指数序列(MCI)。利用相关分析、线性趋势、突变检验、EOF等方法,分析了近60 a新疆干旱强度的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）新疆MCI监测结果与降水距平百分率、干旱灾情记录具有较好的一致性。（2）干旱程度在1987年前后发生突变,1988年以来新疆干旱整体偏轻,春、夏、秋各季节干旱程度均呈显著减弱趋势。空间上以天山为界,基本呈现为北疆重于南疆,牧区重于农区。（3）春季全疆干旱较重,夏季南北疆偏西地区干旱强重,秋季全疆干旱整体较轻。（4） EOF展开的第一模态反映了全区干旱变化的平均状态,第二模态反映出南北疆干旱呈反相位变化的空间分布特征。近60 a新疆干旱强度时空变化整体上存在一致性,局域又存在差异性。

关键词: 干旱, 气象干旱综合指数（MCI）, 时空特征, 新疆

Abstract:

According to the national standard of meteorological drought grade revised in 2017, the daily meteorological drought comprehensive index (MCI) of meteorological stations was calculated based on the daily meteorological data of 99 stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020. The temporal and spatial characteristics of drought intensity in Xinjiang over the last 60 years were analyzed using correlation analysis, linear trend analysis, mutation tests, and empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The MCI monitoring results were in good agreement with precipitation anomaly percentages and drought disaster records in Xinjiang. The degree of drought changed abruptly around 1987. From 1988, the degree of drought was generally lower. Furthermore, the degree of drought in spring, summer, and autumn showed a significant weakening trend. Taking Tianshan Mountain as the boundary, northern Xinjiang was drier than southern Xinjiang and the pastoral area was drier than the agricultural area. The drought was severe in spring, it was severe in the west of North and South Xinjiang in summer, but it was generally lighter in autumn. The first mock exam of EOF expansion reflected the average state of drought change in the whole region. The second mode reflected the opposite trend of drought in North and South Xinjiang. In the last 60 years, the spatial and temporal variation of drought intensity in Xinjiang was generally consistent but differed among local areas.

Key words: drought, MCI, temporal and spatial changes, Xinjiang

吴秀兰,段春锋,玛依拉·买买提艾力,张婧莉,张太西. 基于MCI的新疆近60 a干旱时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(1): 75-83.

WU Xiulan,DUAN Chunfeng,Mayila Maimaitiaili,ZHANG Jingli,ZHANG Taixi. Analysis of the temporal-spatial variation characteristics of drought in the Xinjiang based on the meteorological drought comprehensive index[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 75-83.

图/表 9

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记录的干旱灾情与MCI监测结果对比"

年份	干旱灾情描述	年累积干旱强度MCI空间分布
1994	北疆部分地区和南疆干旱,特别是南疆哈密、阿克苏、巴州、喀什、和田等地降水稀少,河流来水量及水库储水量较历年同期偏少50%~70%。致使农作物受旱面积6.91×10⁴ hm²,绝收0.82×10⁴ hm²。	MCI<-100的低值区集中在南疆的喀什、克州、和田、巴州及北疆的伊犁局地、塔城北部,最低值为-327.4,在克州的阿图什市。
1995	北疆和南疆部分地区干旱。北疆大部积雪较常年偏少40%~60%,1—6月降水持续偏少,全疆受旱面积达4.4×10⁵ hm²,草场受旱达1.07×10⁶ hm²。伊犁地区农作物受灾面积5.87×10⁴ hm²,夏粮绝收1×10⁴ hm²;博州干旱持续50多天,农作物受旱面积占总播种面积的76.5%。	MCI<-100的低值区在伊犁州、博州、塔城和乌鲁木齐等地,最低值为-305.5,出现在伊宁县。
1996	夏季,北疆阿勒泰地区、克拉玛依市干旱。哈巴河县小麦受灾240 hm²,减产2.16×10⁵;布尔津县0.22×10⁴ hm²旱地绝收,水地受旱973.33 hm²,绝收113.33 hm²。	MCI<-50的低值区位于塔城、阿勒泰、博州、石河子市、吐鲁番和哈密市,塔城市最低,为-184.0。
1997	全疆干旱。范围涉及到阿勒泰、塔城、博州、伊犁、昌吉、乌鲁木齐、哈密、巴州、喀什、克州、和田等11个地州60多个县（市）,受灾范围之广、持续时间之长为多年来罕见。4—10月上述地州降水量远低于常年同期水平,农作物受旱面积2.52×10⁴ hm²,成灾24.62×10⁴ hm²,绝收7.13×10⁴ hm²。草场受旱面积约1.47×10⁶ hm²。	MCI<-100的低值区基本覆盖了北疆全境及南疆的喀什、克州、和田和哈密,最低值 -342.0,为塔城的托里县。
1998	南疆干旱。巴州、阿克苏、喀什、克州、和田等地自1997年7月以来大部时间无降水。尤其和田地区冬春草场旱情严重,全地区约53.33×10⁴ hm²牧草基本干枯,牲畜大量死亡。	MCI<-50的低值区主要位于和田地区和巴音布鲁克,最低值-131.2,为和田地区的安德河。

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等级	类型	MCI
1	无旱	-0.5<MCI
2	轻旱	-1.0<MCI≤-0.5
3	中旱	-1.5<MCI≤-1.0
4	重旱	-2.0<MCI≤-1.5
5	特旱	MCI≤-2.0