新疆春季融雪洪水危险性动态评价研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.04.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从新疆春季融雪洪水发生的机理出发,选取雪深、高程、水系距离3个评价因子,结合历史灾情数据,利用客观性较高的信息量模型以及GIS技术对新疆春季融雪洪水灾害的危险性开展了定量评价,获取了新疆春季融雪洪水危险性区划图。利用动态致灾因子日正积温和日降水量,驱动静态新疆春季融雪洪水危险性区划,建立了春季融雪洪水危险性动态评价体系,在日尺度上对全疆春季融雪洪水的发生进行了动态评价。结果表明:(1) 新疆春季融雪洪水的高危险区主要分布在北疆的伊犁河谷、博州、中天山北坡、塔城北部和阿勒泰地区。(2) 对新疆伊犁地区2005年3月中上旬的融雪洪水灾害进行动态评价检验发现,融雪洪水危险性动态评价结果精度较高,可应用到全疆的融雪洪水动态评价中。本研究可为新疆春季融雪洪水的防治和水资源管理提供支撑。

关键词: 融雪洪水, 危险性评价, 洪水预测, 信息量模型, 新疆

Abstract:

Xinjiang is an area with abundant snow and frequent snowmelt floods. In the context of global climate change, the frequency of flood disasters in Xinjiang, especially snowmelt floods, has increased, and flood losses have increased. Based on the mechanism of the spring snowmelt flood in Xinjiang, this study investigates snow depth, elevation, and water system distance, combined with historical disaster data, and uses an objective information model and geographical information system technology on the risk of Xinjiang spring snowmelt flood disasters. A quantitative evaluation was conducted, and a zoning map of the risk of snowmelt flood in Xinjiang in spring was obtained. Furthermore, the dynamic hazard factors of daily positive accumulated temperature and daily precipitation were used to determine static Xinjiang spring snowmelt flood risk zoning, and a dynamic evaluation system of spring snowmelt flood risk was established, which dynamically analyzes the daily occurrence of spring snowmelt floods in Xinjiang. We found that the high-risk areas of spring snowmelt floods in Xinjiang are primarily distributed in the Ili River Valley, Bozhou, the northern slope of the middle Tianshan Mountain, the northern part of Tacheng, and the Altay region in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, the dynamic evaluation test of the snowmelt flood disaster in the Ili area of Xinjiang in mid-to-early March 2005 found that the accuracy of the dynamic evaluation result of the snowmelt flood risk was high, and it can be applied to the dynamic evaluation of snowmelt floods in Xinjiang. This study provides support for the prevention and control of spring snowmelt floods and water resource management in Xinjiang.

Key words: snowmelt flood, risk assessment, flood forecast, information model, Xinjiang

周刚,崔曼仪,李哲,张世强. 新疆春季融雪洪水危险性动态评价研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(4): 950-960.

ZHOU Gang,CUI Manyi,LI Zhe,ZHANG Shiqiang. Dynamic evaluation of the risk of the spring snowmelt flood in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(4): 950-960.

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评价因子	分类	灾害占比/％	像元占比/％	信息量
多年平均2月底	0~2	13.0	42.4	-1.108
最大雪深/cm	2~8	9.0	29.4	-1.184
	8~15	22.0	11.2	0.675
	15~22	19.0	8.2	0.840
	22~28	20.0	6.0	1.204
	>28	17.0	2.8	1.840
高程/m	<0	0.0	0.1	-∞
	0~500	5.0	4.2	0.174
	500~1000	42.0	17.3	0.887
	1000~1500	44.0	30.0	0.383
	1500~2000	4.0	9.8	-0.896
	2000~2500	2.0	4.7	-0.854
	2500~3000	1.0	7.7	-2.041
	3000~3500	2.0	6.7	-1.21
	>3500	0.0	19.5	-∞
水系距离/m	0~3000	45.0	9.0	1.609
	3000~6000	15.0	8.4	0.580
	6000~9000	9.0	7.8	0.143
	9000~14000	14.0	11.1	0.232
	>14000	17.0	63.7	-1.319

条件1(静态危险区化)	条件2(动态致灾因子)	危险等级
高危险区(静态)	5级升温伴随大雨	极高危险区(雨雪混合)
	5级升温	极高危险区(升温)
	4级升温伴随大雨	极高危险区(雨雪混合)
	4级升温	极高危险区(升温)
	3级升温	高危险区(升温)
	2级升温	中危险区
	1级升温	低危险区
中危险区(静态)	5级升温伴随大雨	高危险区(雨雪混合)
	5级升温	高危险区(升温)
	4级升温伴随大雨	高危险区(雨雪混合)
	4级升温	高危险区(升温)
	3级升温	中危险区
	2级升温	中危险区
	1级升温	低危险区
低危险区(静态)	5级升温	中危险区
	4级升温	中危险区
	3级升温	极低危险区
	2级升温	极低危险区
	1级升温	极低危险区
极低危险区(静态)	5级升温	极低危险区
	4级升温	极低危险区
	3级升温	极低危险区
	2级升温	极低危险区
	1级升温	极低危险区

危险性等级	面积 /km²	面积占比/%	历史灾害频次	灾害频次占比/%
高危险区	91181	5.6	52	52
中危险区	173393	10.6	30	30
低危险区	505318	30.9	18	18
极低危险区	864270	52.9	0	0