1957—2018年和田河源流径流演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.02.21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

河川径流演变特征对流域水资源管理及开发利用具有重要的意义。基于和田河源流乌鲁瓦提站和同古孜洛克站1957—2018年62 a长时间径流实测数据,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和重标极差分析法,从年代际、年际、季节及月份4个时间尺度分析了和田河源流区径流演变特征。结果表明：乌鲁瓦提站和同古孜洛克站的径流年代际变化特征一致,均经历了“平水年-偏丰水年”;乌鲁瓦提站和同古孜洛克站年径流量均呈现不显著增加趋势,径流序列的突变点均为2009年,年径流均在一定时间内持续增加;乌鲁瓦提站夏秋季径流量变化对年径流量影响最大,同古孜洛克站夏季径流量对年径流影响最大;径流量年内分配不均匀,主要集中在5—9月,占比在86.11%~90.86%,呈“冬枯夏洪”。

关键词: 和田河, 线性趋势, 径流变化, M-K检验, 重标极差分析

Abstract:

The evolution characteristics of river runoff are of great importance to the management and efficient use of water resources in a river basin. Based on 62 years (1957-2018) of runoff measurement data from Wuluwati station and Tongguziluoke station in the headstream area of the Hotan River, the evolution characteristics of its runoff were assessed using linear trend tests, Mann-Kendall trend tests, and rescaled range analysis. These evolution characteristics were analyzed on four time scales including seasons and months. Results showed that the interdecadal variation characteristics of runoff at Wuluwati station and Tongguziluoke station were the same: Both had experienced a “normal water year-preferential wet year” and the annual runoffs at both stations were equal (they showed a nonsignificant increasing trend). The mutation points of the runoff sequence were all in 2009 and the future annual runoff is predicted to continue to increase for a certain period. The summer and autumn runoff changes at Wuluwati station had the greatest impact on annual runoff, whereas the summer runoff at Tongguziluoke station had the greatest impact on annual runoff. Finally, the distribution of runoff during the year was uneven; it was mainly concentrated in May-September, which accounted for 86.11%-90.86% of runoff, indicating a trend for “dry winters and flooding in summer”.

Key words: Hotan River, linear trend, runoff change, Mann-Kendall test, rescaled range analysis

余其鹰,张江辉,白云岗,王硕,江柱,曹彪,卢震林. 1957—2018年和田河源流径流演变特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(2): 494-503.

YU Qiying,ZHANG Jianghui,BAI Yungang,WANG Shuo,JIANG Zhu,CAO Biao,LU Zhenlin. Evolution characteristics of the headstream of the Hotan River headstream from 1957 to 2018[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(2): 494-503.

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时段	年份	最大值/10⁸m	年份	最小值/10⁸m³	均值/10⁸m³	极值比	变化率/%	年景
1957—2018	1961	31.80	1965	12.27	22.27	2.59	-	-
1957—1960	1959	24.05	1958	20.19	21.77	1.19	-2%	平水年
1961—1970	1961	31.80	1962	16.42	21.50	1.93	-3%	平水年
1971—1980	1978	31.26	1972	17.09	22.35	1.82	0%	平水年
1981—1990	1983	25.59	1989	17.25	22.08	1.48	0%	平水年
1991—2000	1994	28.64	1993	14.96	20.36	1.91	-8%	平水年
2001—2010	2010	30.25	2004	17.06	22.95	1.77	3%	平水年
2011—2018	2015	28.19	2014	19.44	25.25	1.45	13%	偏丰水年

时段	年份	最大值/10⁸m³	年份	最小值/10⁸m³	均值/10⁸m³	极值比	变化率/%	年景
1957—2018	1961	37.12	1965	12.24	23.18	3.03	-	-
1957—1960	1959	27.00	1957	22.02	24.22	1.23	4%	平水年
1961—1970	1961	37.12	1962	20.46	22.65	1.81	-2%	平水年
1971—1980	1978	31.20	1975	17.26	22.57	1.81	-2%	平水年
1981—1990	1990	23.99	1989	14.74	21.21	1.63	-9%	平水年
1991—2000	1994	31.71	1993	13.59	21.12	2.33	-9%	平水年
2001—2010	2006	30.69	2009	16.57	24.37	1.85	5%	平水年
2011—2018	2016	32.24	2014	21.77	27.62	1.48	19%	偏丰水年

时段	春季		夏季		秋季		冬季
时段	乌站	同站	乌站	同站	乌站	同站	乌站	同站
1957—1960	-27%	-27%	-1%	9%	4%	2%	-12%	-28%
1961—1970	-10%	-6%	-1%	-1%	-5%	-3%	-26%	-18%
1971—1980	2%	-4%	-5%	0%	-18%	-16%	-4%	-17%
1981—1990	-7%	-3%	1%	-8%	-9%	-16%	-7%	-11%
1991—2000	-7%	-7%	-10%	-10%	-4%	-6%	-6%	-3%
2001—2010	11%	11%	-1%	3%	12%	32%	25%	25%
2011—2018	23%	26%	16%	16%	27%	35%	20%	32%