近20 a新疆升温融雪（冰）型洪水频次时空变化及大气环流型分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.02.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2000—2019年新疆升温融雪（冰）型洪水灾情资料,分析了近20 a融雪（冰）型洪水频次的时空分布和地域差异性,结果表明：北疆融雪型洪水频次占全疆的75%,主汛期在春季,集中出现在北疆西部北部区域,伊犁哈萨克自治州最多（新源县最多）;南疆主汛期在夏季,融雪（冰）型洪水主要出现于昆仑山北坡,3月和7月是北疆融雪和南疆融雪（冰）型洪水的高发月份。20 a来南北疆春季融雪型洪水频次均呈增多趋势,后10 a融雪（冰）型洪水频次较前10 a均增多,增幅30%左右。阐明了新疆融雪（冰）型洪水的天气学分型,分析了伊朗副高东扩型、西太副高西伸型和新疆脊发展型三类大气环流形势,给出新疆升温融雪（冰）型洪水的高低空环流形势及天气系统配置。得出融雪（冰）型洪水发生前,100 hPa南亚高压呈单体型,100~700 hPa新疆受深厚高压脊控制,高空0 ℃层高度明显偏高,前期山区降水明显偏多。北疆需重点防范春季伊犁州的中低山体季节融雪型洪水,南疆则应密切关注夏季高山冰湖溃决型和积雪、冰川融水型两类融雪（冰）型洪水。

关键词: 融雪（冰）型洪水, 大气环流型, 时空分布, 新疆

Abstract:

Using 20 years of data (2000-2019) on snowmelt (ice) flood disasters in Xinjiang, the temporal and spatial distribution and difference characteristics of snowmelt (ice) flood frequency were analyzed over various time scales in northern and southern Xinjiang. Clear temporal and spatial distributions as well as regional differences in snowmelt (ice) flood frequency were observed in northern and southern Xinjiang, with the snowmelt flood frequency in northern Xinjiang (163 times) accounting for >75% of the total frequency. The main snowmelt flood season in northern Xinjiang was in spring (March), whereas that in southern Xinjiang was in summer (July); in Yili Prefecture, the main snowmelt flood season was in winter. In the past 20 years, the frequency of snowmelt flooding in spring has increased in northern and southern Xinjiang, with the frequency of snowmelt flooding in the last 10 years increasing by 30% compared with that in the first 10 years. The synoptic types of snowmelt (ice)-type floods in Xinjiang were revealed from the perspective of synoptic science. the eastward expansion of the Iran subtropical high, the westward extension of the West Pacific subtropical high, and the development of the Xinjiang ridge, are provided here. We conclude that the 100-700 hPa Xinjiang high ridge is a deep synoptic system, whereas the 100 hPa South Asia high is a haplotype. Before the occurrence of snowmelt flooding, the height of the 0 °C layer is obviously higher and the precipitation in mountainous areas is obviously increased. Northern Xinjiang should focus on the prevention of seasonal snowmelt floods in the middle and low mountain regions, such as in Ili Prefecture, in spring, whereas southern Xinjiang should closely monitor two types of snowmelt (ice) floods in summer, i.e., high mountain ice lake break types and snow and glacier melt types.

Key words: snowmelt (ice) flood, atmospheric circulation types, spatial-temporal distribution, Xinjiang

张俊兰,罗继,王荣梅. 近20 a新疆升温融雪（冰）型洪水频次时空变化及大气环流型分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(2): 339-350.

ZHANG Junlan,LUO Ji,WANG Rongmei. Combined analysis of the spatiotemporal variations in snowmelt (ice) flood frequency in Xinjiang over 20 years and atmospheric circulation patterns[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(2): 339-350.

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		年	春	夏	冬	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	12月
北疆	西部和北部	69.3	82.4	19.3	100.0	100.0	100.0	82.1	77.4	90.5	47.9	4.0	14.3	0.0	100.0
北疆	天山北坡	8.8	9.6	6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	14.3	3.2	0.0	4.5	3.2	14.3	0.0	0.0
南疆		21.9	8.1	74.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.6	19.4	9.5	47.6	92.9	71.4	100.0	0.0

		年	春	夏	冬	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	12月
北疆	伊犁州	44.8	40.8	14.3	83.3	78.6	85.7	40.7	40.0	42.1	20.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
	博州	7.4	6.4	7.1	12.5	14.3	14.3	8.6	4.0	0.0	0.0	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	塔城	20.2	24.0	14.3	4.2	7.1	0.0	29.6	16.0	10.5	10.0	0.0	50.0	0.0	0.0
	阿勒泰	19.0	18.4	57.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.2	36.0	47.4	70.0	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	昌吉	5.5	6.4	7.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0	0.0	0.0
	乌鲁木齐	3.1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
南疆	和田	25.0	18.2	27.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	16.7	50.0	33.3	26.9	20.0	0.0	0.0
	喀什	21.2	9.1	25.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0	55.6	15.4	20.0	0.0	0.0
	克州	26.9	45.5	20.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	66.7	50.0	0.0	11.1	23.1	20.0	100.0	0.0
	阿克苏	21.2	18.2	22.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3	0.0	0.0	26.9	40.0	0.0	0.0
	巴州	5.8	9.1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0