近40 a三江源地区土地利用变化动态分析及预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2018.03.24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对三江源草地退化、水土流失及环境恶化等问题，根据三江源1980—2015年七期1：100 000土地利用数据集，运用ARCGIS 10.0空间统计分析工具，定性与定量相结合的方法分析了该区土地利用时空动态变化及未来变化趋势，结果表明：① 研究期土地利用变化显著，分为三个时期：前15 a（1980—1995年）草地退化，中间5a（1995—2000）年，土地利用变化缓慢，后15 a（2000—2015年）退化草地恢复。② 从土地利用结构看，1980—2015年，低、高覆盖度草地、水域、建设用地波动上升，未利用地明显减少，减少了17.61%，中覆盖度草地和林地基本不变，草地总面积增加了13.45%，主要由未利用土地转化而来。③ 从土地利用类型转化看，以低中高覆盖度草地、未利用土地与水域之间的转化为主。④ 据CA-Markov模型预测：水域基本保持不变，高、低覆盖度草地、未利用土地、耕地和建设用地面积不断增加，林地面积减少。⑤ 人口、经济结构变化及政策的实施是土地利用变化的主要原因，生态资产的供需平衡是驱动因子。因此提出加强基础文化建设、保护天然草地、优化土地利用生产模式，使土地得到合理利用，促进该区可持续发展。

关键词: 土地利用/土地覆被变化, CA-Markov模型, 趋势预测, 供需平衡, 利用类型, 三江源

Abstract:

In this study, the Arcgis10.0 spatial statistical analysis and the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyze the spatial distribution, dynamic change and future trend of land use/cover change in the three-river headwaters based on the 1: 100000 land use dataset from 1980 to 2015. The purposes of the study were to solve the problems of degeneration of grasslands, soil erosion and environment deterioration in the study area. The results are as follows:(1) Land use change was significant during the whole research period. The main land use change was divided into three periods: a degeneration of grasslands occurred during the first 15-year period (1980-1955), the land use change was slow during the second 15-year one (1995-2000), and the degenerated grasslands were regenerated during the last 15-year one (2000-2015); (2) During the period from 1980 to 2015, the areas of grasslands with low and high coverage, waters and construction land were enlarged in a fluctuation way, the area of unused land (sandy land, saline land, swamp, etc.) was reduced significantly, the areas of grasslands with moderate coverage and woodlands were basically unchanged, and the total area of grasslands was enlarged by 13.45% and mainly from the reduction of unused land; (3) The land use change was mainly caused by the conversion among grasslands, unused land and waters; (4)The CA- Markov model was used to predict that the total area of waters would be unchanged, the areas of grasslands with high and low coverage, unused land, cultivated land and construction land would be continuously enlarged, but the area of woodland would be reduced; (5)The change of population, economic structure and policy were the main reasons affecting land use change, and the supply-demand balance of ecological assets was the driving factor of land use/cover change. Therefore, it was proposed to strengthen the basic cultural construction, conserve the natural grasslands and optimize the land use and production modes so as to promote the sustainable development in the study area.

Key words: land use/land cover change, CA-Markovmodel, Supply and demand balance, utilization type, three-river headwaters

许茜, 李奇, 陈懂懂, 罗彩云, 赵新全, 赵亮. 近40 a三江源地区土地利用变化动态分析及预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(3): 695-704.

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