天津市能源消费碳排放影响因素及其情景预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2019.04.25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在天津市2000—2016年碳排放测算的基础上,运用LMDI模型分析天津市碳排放影响因素。结果表明:经济规模和能源强度对天津市碳排放影响较大,二者对碳排放影响分别表现为促进和抑制作用;通过将经济变量分为高、中、低3种情景,减排变量分为中减排和强减排2种情景,组合得到高增长强减排、中增长强减排等6种发展情景。基于STIRPAT扩展模型,预测6种组合情景下天津市碳排放变化趋势。结果显示,中增长强减排情景模式在保证经济发展的同时,较其余几种模式碳排放峰值及其年份均有优化,是天津市最佳发展模式。

关键词: 能源消费, 碳排放, 影响因素, 情景模式, 趋势预测, 天津

Abstract: The LMDI model was applied to analyze the factors affecting carbon emission from energy consumption in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016 based on the estimated carbon emission data.The results indicated that the carbon emission in Tianjin was significantly affected by the scale of economy and energy intensity,which played the promotion and inhibition of carbon emission respectively.On which the economic variables were classified into high,medium and low scenarios,and the emission reduction variables were divided into two modes of medium emission reduction and strong emission reduction.By means of the combination,6 development modes including the high economic growth with strong emission reduction and the medium economic growth with strong emission reduction were obtained.Based on the STIRPAT extended model,the trend of carbon emissions in Tianjin under the 6 combination modes was predicted.The results showed that the mode of medium economic growth with strong emission reduction was the best for maintaining the economic development in Tianjin,and the carbon emission peaks and their occurring years were optimized compared to those of other modes.

Key words: energy consumption, carbon emission, affecting factor, scenario mode, trend prediction, Tianjin

李雪梅, 张庆. 天津市能源消费碳排放影响因素及其情景预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2019, 36(4): 997-1004.

LI Xue-mei, ZHANG Qing. Factors Affecting Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption in Tianjin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(4): 997-1004.

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