西北干旱区大气水分循环要素变化研究进展

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 西北干旱区是对全球气候变化响应最敏感的地区之一。全球变暖加剧水循环，引起大气水分循环要素发生明显变化。借助最新资料对过去50 a西北干旱区大气水分循环要素变化特征和相关科学问题进行了梳理总结，其主要结论：①西北干旱区水汽和降水量有一致性变化趋势，在20世纪80年代中后期突变型增多，21世纪初有微弱的减小态势。受季风强度减弱的影响，西北东部地区水汽和降水量减小明显。②降水量增加站点占到95.9%，形成了天山、祁连山等增湿中心，具有明显的增湿海拔依赖性特征。③实际蒸散发量呈微弱的减小趋势，天山山区明显减少，而祁连山地区明显增加。④干旱区西部夏季降水以西风带水汽输送为主，但大尺度大降水过程发生时，低纬水汽输送尤为重要。全球气候变暖在影响着大气水分循环要素明显变化的同时，也加剧了干旱区水循环过程和水资源的不确定性。

关键词: 大气水分循环, 降水, 水汽, 西北干旱区

Abstract: The arid region of northwestern China is one of the most sensitively response to global change. Global warming accelerated water cycle, caused by obviously changes of the water cycle in atmospheric. Based on the data analysis and newest research results, this paper analyzes the Characteristics of water cycle in atmosphere and related scientific problems in the arid region of northwestern China. The original daily temperature, precipitation and relative humidity data were collected from 96 meteorological stations in the region and analyzed by a Mann – Kendall test and linear trend. The analysis results show thatthe water vapor and precipitation experienced experienced a “sharply” increase in the late 1980's, however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent decrease since the 21st century. The eastern northwest water vapor and precipitation decrease obviously, caused by the monsoon intensity weaken. The northwest of Xinjiang and northwest of the Hexi Corridor were sensitive to the water vapor change.The increased stations of the precipitation accounted for 95.9%, and have the elevation-depending wetting, especially in the Tianshan Mountain and Qilian Mountain. The precipitation trend increases signi?cantly with elevation except for the altitude from 500 to 1500 m, the highest correlation appears above 1500 m, increases by 13 mm/decade with each 1000 m. With the elevation increasing every 1000 m, precipitation tendency rate increases by 7 mm/decade from 1000 to 2000 m and increases by 10 mm/decade from 2000 to 4000 m. Average water vapor balance is 2.8×1011 m3, but the precipitation cycle rate is low, middle troposphere water net income increase significantly. Actual evaporation showed a weak decrease trend in the northwest arid region, and the Tianshan Mountain area decreased significantly, while Qilian Mountain region increased significantly. Summer precipitation is given priority to with westerlies water vapor transport, but the low latitude water vapor transport is particularly important when the large scale precipitation process occurred.

Key words: Atmospheric water cycle, Precipitation, Water vapor transmission, The arid region of northwestern China

姚俊强，杨青，毛炜峄，刘志辉. 西北干旱区大气水分循环要素变化研究进展[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(2): 269-276.

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