干旱区研究

干旱区研究

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新疆山区中小河流洪水预报模型及其应用

陈心池1,2， 张利平1,2，闪丽洁1,2，杨卫1,2，贾军伟3   

  1. （1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室，湖北武汉 430072；2.水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心，湖北武汉 430072；3.吉林省电力勘测设计院，吉林长春130000）

  • 收稿日期:2016-12-22 修回日期:2017-05-26 出版日期:2017-11-15 发布日期:2017-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 张利平.E-mail: zhanglp@whu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:陈心池（1989-），男，博士研究生，主要研究方向为水文水资源.E-mail:stephencug@outlook.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（51339004，51279139）共同资助

Flood Prediction Models and Their Application for the Medium and Small Rivers in Alpine Area in Xinjiang

CHEN Xin-chi1,2, ZHANG Li-ping1,2, SHAN Li-jie1,2, YANG Wei1,2, JIA Jun-wei3   

  1. (1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;2. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan 430072, China;3.Jilin Electric Power Survey and Design Institute, Changchun 130000, China)

  • Received:2016-12-22 Revised:2017-05-26 Online:2017-11-15 Published:2017-12-20

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被引次数

3

摘要： 摘要：我国中小河流防洪标准普遍偏低，突发性洪水频繁，洪灾损失极为严重。选取新疆山区金沟河和奎屯河，通过MODIS遥感数据提取流域积雪覆盖率，并结合气象台站数据，基于SRM融雪径流模型、逐步多元回归模型和最近邻抽样模型，对流域进行径流模拟。结果显示：3种模型均能很好的模拟金沟河与奎屯河流域的径流过程，率定期与检验期Nash效率系数均达到0.7以上，且3种模型各有优缺点，说明融雪径流模型、逐步多元回归模型与最近邻抽样模型能够应用于金沟河与奎屯河流域的洪水预报，对新疆山区中小河流域防洪预警具有一定的指导意义。

关键词: 中小河流, 融雪径流模型, 逐步多元回归模型, 最近邻抽样模型, 洪水预报, 新疆

Abstract: Abstract：Commonly low standards of flood control for medium and small rivers and frequently occurred flood disaster usually lead to extremely serious economic loss in China. Two typical medium and small rivers, the Jingou River and Kuytun River in alpine areas in Xinjiang, were selected in this study. Based on snowmelt runoff model, stepwise multivariate regression and nearest neighbor bootstrap regression, the daily runoff volumes of the two catchments were simulated after collecting the hydrological data, meteorological data and the snow cover data extracted from MODIS remote sensing imags. The results showed that the three models could be used to well simulate the runoff process of the Jingou River and Kuytun River catchments, Nash efficiency coefficients in both calibration and validation periods were higher than 0.7, and each model had its own advantages and disadvantages, which means that the snowmelt runoff model, stepwise multivariate regression and nearest neighbor bootstrap regression could be applied to predict flood in the Jingou River and Kuytun River catchments. The study results are of some guiding significance for preventing and earlywarning flood of the medium and small rivers in alpine area.

Key words: medium and small rivers, snowmelt runoff model, stepwise multivariate regression, nearest neighbor bootstrap regression, flood prediction, Xinjiang