干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 705-712.

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Copulas函数的内蒙古强沙尘暴特征及其灾害性研究

刘雪琴1，2, 李宁1，2，3, 吉中会1，2, 张鹏1，2, 顾孝天1，2   

    1.  地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京师范大学，北京　100875；
    2. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院，北京师范大学，北京　100875;
    3. 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京师范大学，北京　100875
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-30 修回日期:2011-10-18 出版日期:2012-07-15 发布日期:2012-09-11
  • 通讯作者: 李宁.E-mail：ningli@bnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:刘雪琴（1985-），女，河南开封人，博士生，研究方向为自然灾害风险评估和管理.E-mail：liuxueqin@mail.bnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（41171401）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（105560GK）；国家重大科学研究计划（2012CB955402）资助

Study on Severe Dust Storms and Their Disasters in Inner Mongolia Based on Copulas Function

 LIU  Xue-Qin1，2, LI  Ning1，2，3, JI  Zhong-Hui1，2, ZHANG  Peng1，2, GU  Xiao-Tian1，2   

    1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 
    2.  Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China; 
    3. Key Laboratory of Environment Evolution and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2011-05-30 Revised:2011-10-18 Online:2012-07-15 Published:2012-09-11

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摘要： 针对自然灾害中进行多变量分析的重要性和目前存在的不足，引入了金融领域中应用成熟的Copulas函数理论和方法，对内蒙古1990-2008年的强沙尘暴灾害事件进行了案例分析，建立了强沙尘暴事件10 min平均最大风速和持续时间两个基本特征变量的联合分布，计算了基于联合分布的联合重现期。通过与基于单变量重现期的比较和实际验证，得出联合重现期更加准确。实例研究表明，Copulas函数能够很好的描述强沙尘暴灾害两个基本特征变量的联合分布，得出的重现期对当地防灾减灾策略的制定和风险管理水平的提高具有重要的参考价值。通过对沙尘暴灾害多变量分析方法的探讨，也为此方法在自然灾害风险研究中进一步的应用奠定基础。

关键词: Copulas函数, 联合分布, 强沙尘暴, 灾害, 重现期, 内蒙古

Abstract: This paper discussed the importance and the deficiency of multivariate analysis in researching natural disasters and describing the theory and methods of Copula function, which is widely used in financial field. On which a case study on severe sandstorm events in Inner Mongolia during the period of 1990-2008 was carried out. The joint distribution of 10-minute average maximum wind speed and duration of severe sandstorm disasters were revealed, and the return periods under different encounters were calculated. After comparing the return periods based on single variable, the obtained joint return periods were exacter. The case study showed that the Copula function can be used to simulate severe sandstorm disasters well. The results can be referred in working out the disaster reduction strategies and putting forward the measures of controlling severe sandstorm disasters, and also in further researching the risk of natural disasters.

Key words: Copulas function, joint distribution, severe sandstorm, disaster, return period, Inner Mongolia