干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 320-327.

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球变暖背景下天山地区近地面水汽变化研究

 姚俊强1,2, 杨青2, 赵玲2   

    1. 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054； 
    2. 中国气象局 乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2011-01-14 修回日期:2011-05-20 出版日期:2012-03-15 发布日期:2012-04-10
  • 作者简介:姚俊强（1987-），男，甘肃通渭人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为气候变化与水资源. E-mail：yaojq824@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划“973”项目（2010CB951001）；中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF-09-20）；新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金（200821176）

Research on Change of Surface Water Vapor in the Tianshan Mountains under Global Warming

 YAO  Jun-Qiang1,2, YANG  Qing2, ZHAO  Ling2   

    1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China; 
    2.   Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2011-01-14 Revised:2011-05-20 Online:2012-03-15 Published:2012-04-10

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摘要： 利用天山地区44个站1961-2009年水汽压数据，采用线性趋势估计、距平分析、Mann-Kendall趋势统计突变检验和功率谱等方法，分析天山地区近地面水汽变化及其与区域气候变化的关系。结果表明：天山地区近49 a来水汽总体呈增多趋势，年和四季水汽变化具有年际和年代际差异，最大增多趋势均出现在20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初，最小值出现在70年代中后期和80年代中期，最大值出现在21世纪初。突变和周期分析得出，水汽年变化与西北地区气候变化趋势具有明显一致性。年降水变化与水汽相关最高，温度和青藏高原指数次之，其他因子相关一般。

关键词: 全球变暖, 水汽, 气候变化, 降水变化, 水分循环, 天山地区, 新疆

Abstract: In this paper, the change of surface water vapor was analyzed using the linear trend estimation, anomaly analysis, Mann-Kendall sharp change test and power spectrum analysis based on the data of water vapor pressure at 44 meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains during the period from 1961 to 2009. The results show that the change trend of surface water vapor in the Tianshan Mountains was significant, and the average change trend was 0.015. There were the obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal differences in variation and change trend of annual and seasonal surface water vapor, the highest increase occurred in the late-1990s, the minimum in the late-1970s and mid-1980s, and the maximum in the early 21st century. The increase trend of surface water vapor was the most significant in summer, then in autumn and winter, and the minimum increase occurred in spring. Sharp changes of the annual and seasonal surface water vapor occurred in 1986 (especially in summer and autumn), 1980 (winter) and 1996 (spring). The test shows that all the sharp changes were significant( r=0.05).The power spectrum analysis shows that there were the obvious periodicities in annual and seasonal surface water vapor change. The obvious annual periodicities of surface water vapor change were for 3.2 years and 2.9 years; the summer ones for 2.9 years and 2.3 years, and autumn ones for 3.6 years and 3.2 years. The change trend and sharp change of surface water vapor in the Tianshan Mountains were similar to the change trends of mean annual temperature and precipitation, westerly circulation, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau circulation NAO and the time of their sharp changes. The correlation between annual precipitation and water vapor was the closest, and followed by temperature and other factors. 

Key words: global warming, surface water vapor, climate change, precipitation, water circle, Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang