基于信息熵的张掖市土地利用结构分析及其灰色预测

干旱区研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 92-97.

基于信息熵的张掖市土地利用结构分析及其灰色预测

王晓娇, 陈英, 齐鹏, 张仁陟

甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院, 甘肃兰州 730070

收稿日期:2010-04-07 修回日期:2010-06-17 出版日期:2011-02-25 发布日期:2011-09-06
通讯作者: 陈英.E-mail:cheny@gsau.edu.cn
作者简介:王晓娇(1984-),女,甘肃平凉人,硕士研究生,研究方向为土地资源管理.E-mail:qip@gsau.edu.cn
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"后农税时代甘肃农村土地经济问题调查研究"(07JA630056)

Study on Land Use Structure in Zhangye City Base on Information Entropy and Grey Prediction

WANG Xiao-jiao, CHEN Ying, QI Peng, ZHANG Ren-zhi

College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received:2010-04-07 Revised:2010-06-17 Online:2011-02-25 Published:2011-09-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于Shannon信息熵理论,分析了2003-2007年张掖市土地利用结构信息熵动态变化,对影响信息熵值大小的土地利用类型做了初步探讨,并运用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型,对2008-2015年该市信息熵进行预测。结果表明:① 影响张掖市土地利用结构信息熵动态演变的主要土地利用类型有牧草地、其他农用地、居民点及工矿用地、交通用地和未利用地等,其中牧草地与信息熵变化关联最大;② 张掖市土地利用结构的信息熵和均衡度呈单调递增趋势,增幅逐渐变缓,说明该市经济发展的同时,土地利用结构向着均衡化的方向发展。

关键词: 土地利用, 时空变化, 灰色预测, 张掖, 甘肃

Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamic variation of information entropy of land use structure in Zhangye City, Gansu Province during the period 2003-2007 based on Shannon information entropy, makes a preliminary discussion on the land use types affecting the values of information entropy, and predicts the information entropy in the city during the period from 2008 to 2015 using the GM (1, 1) model of grey system theory. The results show that, firstly, the main land use types affecting the dynamic variation of the information entropy of land use structure in the city were the grassplots, other farming lands, residential areas, lands for industry, mining and traffic as well as unused land, among which there was the closest correlation between the dynamic variation of information entropy of land use structure and the grassplots. Secondly, the information entropy and the equilibrium degree of land use structure in Zhangye City were monotonically increased, but the increase trend was gradually slowed down, which reveals that the land use structure was become more and more balanced with the economic development.

Key words: land use, spatiotemporal change, grey prediction, Zhangye City, Gansu Province

中图分类号:

F301.24

王晓娇, 陈英, 齐鹏, 张仁陟. 基于信息熵的张掖市土地利用结构分析及其灰色预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2011, 28(1): 92-97.

WANG Xiao-jiao, CHEN Ying, QI Peng, ZHANG Ren-zhi. Study on Land Use Structure in Zhangye City Base on Information Entropy and Grey Prediction[J]. , 2011, 28(1): 92-97.

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