河西走廊东部极端降水时空变化特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1961—2023年河西走廊东部5个国家级自动气象站逐日降水观测数据，选取8个极端降水指数，采用反距离权重插值法、线性趋势法、Pearson相关系数法、余弦相似系数法，研究河西走廊东部极端降水的长期气候变化趋势，定性评估其他等级降水对总降水量的贡献。结果表明：（1）河西走廊东部各极端降水指数总体由北向南递增，南部浅山区和高寒山区是各极端降水高值区。（2）各极端降水指数随年代、年均呈增加趋势，总降水量、中雨及以上降水量和强降水量的气候倾向率大于其他降水指数。除中雨及以上降水强度外，其他极端降水指数增加趋势均很显著。（3）总降水量与其他降水指数均呈显著正相关，其中总降水量与强降水量、中雨及以上降水量的相关系数远大于其他降水指数。总降水量与其他降水指数的变化趋势相似系数均超过了0.980，趋势相似度非常高。表明其他降水指数对总降水量均具有正贡献，强降水量、中雨及以上降水量对总降水量的贡献更大。

关键词: 极端降水指数, 变化特征, Pearson相关系数, 余弦相似系数, 河西走廊

Abstract:

Extreme precipitation events have increased significantly with global climate warming, leading to serious floods and other natural disasters. Studying extreme precipitation events is conducive to providing forecasts and early warnings, predicting extreme precipitation, and assessing disaster prevention capacity. Using daily precipitation data from five meteorological stations in the eastern Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, China during 1961-2023, various indices were used to first study the long-term trends of extreme precipitation with climate change in this region and then qualitatively evaluate the contribution of precipitation of different grades to total precipitation using the inverse distance weight interpolation method, linear tendency method, Pearson correlation coefficient, and cosine similarity coefficient. The results illustrated that: (1) Extreme precipitation indices increased from north to south in the eastern Hexi Corridor, and southern mountainous areas and alpine mountainous areas were identified as high value areas of extreme precipitation. (2) All extreme precipitation indices increased over time, and the climate tendency rates of total precipitation, moderate rain and above precipitation, and strong precipitation were greater than those of the other precipitation indices. The increases of the other extreme precipitation indices were significant, excluding the intensity of moderate rain and above precipitation. (3) Total precipitation exhibited significant positive correlations with the other precipitation indices, and strong precipitation and moderate rain and above precipitation exhibited greater correlation coefficients with total precipitation than did the other precipitation indices. The trend similarity coefficients between total precipitation and the other precipitation indices all exceeded 0.980. These findings indicate that various precipitation indices had positive contributions to total precipitation, with strong precipitation and moderate rain and above precipitation having greater contributions to total precipitation than the other indices.

Key words: extreme precipitation index, change characteristics, Pearson correlation, cosine similarity coefficient, Hexi Corridor

杨晓玲, 陈静, 赵慧华, 马中华, 吴雯. 河西走廊东部极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(8): 1394-1403.

YANG Xiaoling, CHEN Jing, ZHAO Huihua, MA Zhonghua, WU Wen. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the eastern Hexi Corridor[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(8): 1394-1403.

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指数	定义	单位
总降水量	年内日降水量≥0.1 mm的累计量	mm
日降水强度	年内总降水量与年日降水量≥0.1 mm日数的比	mm·d^-1
日最大降水量	年内最大日降水量	mm
湿日	年内日降水量≥1 mm的日数	d
中雨及以上降水量	年内日降水量≥10 mm的累计量	mm
中雨及以上降水强度	年内日降水量≥10 mm的年累计量与其日数的比	mm·d^-1
强降水量	年内日降水量>95%分位值的累计量	mm
特强降水量	年内日降水量>99%分位值的累计量	mm

极端降水指标	1961—1970年	1971—1980年	1981—1990年	1991—2000年	2001—2010年	2011—2023年
总降水量/mm	-17.3	-4.9	-9.8	0.5	0.0	24.2
日降水强度/（mm·d^-1）	0.0	0.0	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2
日最大降水量/mm	-2.1	-2.6	-0.7	1.5	-0.3	3.2
湿日/d	-2.8	-0.1	0.7	-1.7	1.5	1.9
中雨及以上降水量/mm	-8.4	-4.5	-12.4	5.9	-6.1	19.7
中雨及以上降水强度/（mm·d^-1）	-0.6	-0.6	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.5
强降水量/mm	-7.4	-3.9	-10.8	5.4	-2.7	14.8
特强降水量/mm	-2.4	-4.8	-4.0	3.4	-1.3	7.0

极端降水指标	总降水量/mm	日降水强度/(mm·d^-1)	日最大降水量/mm	湿日/d	中雨及以上降水量/mm	中雨及以上降水强度(mm·d^-1)	强降水量/mm	特强降水量/mm
平均值	254.1	3.2	24.9	45.4	104.6	16.1	170.0	70.8
最大值	354.7（2019年）	4.1（2021年）	37.5（2012年）	58.4（1988年）	170.8（2019年）	22.2（1985年）	218.3（2019年）	99.8（2012年）
最小值	147.4 （1962年）	2.1 （1962年）	13.8 （1962年）	33.2 （1965年）	30.9 （1962年）	12.6 （1962年）	98.9 （1962年）	38.3 （1962年）

	日降水强度	日最大降水量	湿日	中雨及以上降水量	中雨及以上降水强度	强降水量	特强降水量
相关系数	0.747	0.584	0.810	0.905	0.380	0.925	0.725
趋势相似系数	0.994	0.984	0.995	0.987	0.986	0.998	0.991