干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1357-1368.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.01 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250801

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

“三北”工程区极端降水时空演变特征与影响

蒋安尧1,2(), 陈睿山1,2,3, 郑利林1,2(), 郭晓娜1,2, 孙南沙1,2, 李因帅1,2   

  1. 1.上海交通大学设计学院， 上海 200240
    2.自然资源部国土空间生态治理数字工程技术创新中心， 上海 200240
    3.上海交通大学内蒙古研究院， 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010010
  • 收稿日期:2025-05-29 修回日期:2025-07-08 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-11-24
  • 通讯作者: 郑利林. E-mail: zhenglilin17@mails.ucas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:蒋安尧（2000-），男，硕士，主要从事荒漠化遥感与防治研究. E-mail: ayjiangsh@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    内蒙古自治区上海交通大学科技合作专项(25Z970300314);上海市“科技创新行动计划”自然科学基金项目(24ZR1440400);上海市2022年度“科技创新行动计划”项目(22230750500)

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and impacts of extreme precipitation in the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program region

JIANG Anyao1,2(), CHEN Ruishan1,2,3, ZHENG Lilin1,2(), GUO Xiaona1,2, SUN Nansha1,2, LI Yinshuai1,2   

  1. 1. School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
    2. Digital Engineering Technology Innovation Center for Territorial Ecological Governance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai 200240, China
    3. Inner Mongolia Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Hohhot 010010, Inner Mongolia, China
  • Received:2025-05-29 Revised:2025-07-08 Published:2025-08-15 Online:2025-11-24

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摘要： 为研究“三北”工程区极端降水变化及其影响，本文基于323个气象站的逐日降水数据和CMIP6多模式集合数据，分析了“三北”工程区极端降水的时空演变特征。结果显示：（1） “三北”工程区年均降水量呈现由东南向西北递减的格局。1960—2019年年均降水量在西部地区，特别是天山北麓和祁连山脉显著增加。（2） “三北”工程区东南部极端降水量大但呈下降趋势；西北部极端降水日数与极端降水占年降水量的比率显著上升。（3） 聚类分析识别出大兴安岭南麓、祁连山、天山-阿尔泰山为极端降水显著增强区，其极端降水量已占年降水量的1/3至1/2。未来气候预测显示山地区域的极端降水强度将持续增长。本研究揭示了“三北”工程区极端降水风险的空间集聚性，为“三北”工程分区防灾与生态管理提供科学支撑。

关键词: 气候变化, 极端降水, 聚类分析, 时空序列, “三北”工程

Abstract:

The Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program (TNSFP), a major ecological engineering initiative in China, faces growing challenges from shifting precipitation patterns. This study utilizes daily precipitation data from 323 meteorological stations across the TNSFP region. The percentile threshold method was used to define extreme precipitation thresholds, calculate relevant indices, and analyze their spatiotemporal evolution. The results Show that (1) Distinct south-north gradient in annual precipitation, with amounts decreasing from the southeast to the northwest. The spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation is closely linked to topography. (2) Southeastern areas exhibit higher extreme precipitation totals, though these show a declining trend. In contrast, the number of extreme precipitation days and their contribution rate have significantly increased in the northwest. (3) Cluster analysis highlights that the intensification of extreme precipitation is concentrated in specific regions, the southern foothills of the Greater Hinggan Mountains, the Qilian Mountains, and the Tianshan-Altai Mountains. In these areas, extreme precipitation accounts for one-third to one-half of annual rainfall. The likely drivers of this intensification include Arctic warming, westerly belt fluctuations, and topographic uplift: demonstrating the complex interactions between large-scale climate patterns and regional geographic features that shape observed trends. These findings have significant implications for the ongoing management and resilience of the TNSFP. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation is essential for developing effective strategies. This research provides valuable insights for anticipating future climate impacts and formulating disaster prevention and mitigation measures.

Key words: climate change, extreme precipitation, cluster analysis, spatiotemporal sequence analysis, Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program