干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 770-778.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.04.03

• 水土资源及其利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

未来气候情景下塔里木河干流日径流过程模拟研究

班春广1,2, 陶辉1, 董义阳1,2,3, 赵成义1   

  1. 1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049;
    3.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-19 修回日期:2017-12-01 出版日期:2018-07-15 发布日期:2025-11-18
  • 通讯作者: 赵成义. E-mail: zcy@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:班春广(1989-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事生态水文研究. E-mail: banchunguang@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学重点基金项目(U1403281,41671030);中国科学院重大仪器研制项目(Y52410);新疆维吾尔自治区高层次引进人才项目(Y642091)

Simulation of Daily Runoff Process in the Mainstream Area of the Tarim River Under Future Climate Scenario

BAN Chun-guang1,2, TAO Hui1, DONG Yi-yang1,2,3, ZHAO Cheng-yi1   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in Drainage Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2017-10-19 Revised:2017-12-01 Published:2018-07-15 Online:2025-11-18

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摘要： 以塔里木河干流为研究区,运用分布式MIKE SHE水文模型,识别了日值尺度下塔里木河干流下垫面各参数,选取干流内6个气象站(阿拉尔、拜城、库车、轮台、库尔勒、铁干里克)1998—2007年实测气象数据,依据干流3个水文站(新其满、英巴扎、恰拉)1998—2007年实测数据对模型进行识别和验证,并结合HadGEM 2-ES气候模式中气温和降水数据,预估了未来(2021—2050年)气候情景下塔里木河干流径流演变特征。结果表明:① 运用MIKE SHE 模型模拟塔里木河干流日径流过程,模型效率系数均达0.63以上,表明该模型适用性较强。② 未来30 a 塔里木河干流多年月平均气温均较基准期(1981—2004年)升高了1.7~2.2 ℃,且夏秋季节升温较高;降水整体呈增加趋势,且春季增幅较大,秋季增幅较小。③ 未来气候情景下,各水文站年均径流量呈减少趋势,且以夏秋季节表现最为显著(P＜0.01)。其中,下游恰拉水文站平均径流量减少比例最大(5.04%),上游新其满水文站减少比例最小(0.6%);各气候排放情景中,RCP2.6(低排放情景)下各水文站减少量最小,RCP8.5(高排放情景)下减少最大。未来气候情景下塔里木河干流年径流呈减少趋势,使区域水资源调配面临更大困难,生态安全面临更大威胁,同时也将加大区域人地关系矛盾。

关键词: 日径流模拟, 气候变化, MIKE SHE, 塔里木河干流

Abstract: In this study, the hydrological model of distributed MIKE SHE was used to calibrate and validate the change of monthly and annual runoff volumes at the hydrometric stations in the mainstream area of the Tarim River. The study was based on the air temperature and precipitation data observed by the meteorological stations named as Aral, Baicheng, Kuqa, Luntai, Korla and Tikanlik during the period of 1998-2007, and also the discharge data measured by three hydrometric stations including Xinquman, Yengbazar, and Qara during the period of 1998-2007. The climate model of HadGEM 2-ES was used to estimate the evolvement of runoff volume of mainstream of the Tarim River in the future (from 2021 to 2050) under climate scenarios. The results indicated that: ① The model of MIKE SHE was adopted to simulate the runoff process of mainstream of the Tarim River, and the model efficiency coefficients were all higher than 0.63, which showed that the applicability of this model was high; ② In the next 30 years, the monthly average temperature in the mainstream area of the Tarim River would be increased by 1.7-2.2 ℃ compared with that during the reference period (from 1981 to 2004), and the temperature increase in summer and autumn would be significant. Precipitation would be in an increase trend, its increase would be significant in spring but not in autumn; ③ Under the future climate scenarios, annual runoff volumes at the hydrometric stations would be in a decrease trend, especially in summer and autumn (P<0.01). In which the decrease of runoff volume at Qara Hydrometric Station in the lower reaches would be the most significantly (5.04%), but that at Xinquman Hydrometric Station in the upper reaches was the lowest (0.6%). In emission scenarios under various climatic conditions, the reduction of runoff volume was the least under RCP 2.6 (low emission) but the most under RCP 8.5 (high emission). The annual runoff volume of mainstream of the Tarim River under the future climate scenarios would be in a decrease trend, it would be more difficult to redistribute water resources, the ecological security would be threatened, and the human-land contradiction would become more serious.

Key words: daily runoff simulation, climate change, MIKE SHE, Tarim River