气候变化下脓疮草在中国的适宜分布区预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

脓疮草具有重要的药用价值和生态价值，在维护人类健康和生态系统平衡方面发挥着重要作用。为探究该物种的适生区分布格局及其对气候变化的响应，本研究基于脓疮草86条自然分布点和20个环境变量，运用MaxEnt模型模拟并预测脓疮草在当前及未来（2041—2060年、2081—2100年）气候变化情景下的适生区及其动态变化。采用综合贡献率与刀切法相结合的方法评估了关键环境因子的重要性，并基于脓疮草27个种群的叶绿体单倍型数据和不同时期的分布模型模拟数据，运用最小成本路径方法模拟了脓疮草的扩散路径。结果表明：（1）影响脓疮草地理分布的主要环境因子是最暖月最高温、海拔、最湿月降水量和温度季节性变化。（2）当前气候条件下，脓疮草在我国的潜在高适生区面积约为21.04×10⁴ km²，主要分布于内蒙古的乌兰察布、鄂尔多斯和东阿拉善，宁夏北部，陕西北部和甘肃等地区。（3）在未来（2081—2100年）2种典型浓度路径的气候情景下（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），脓疮草的总适生区和高适生区面积均呈增加趋势，其核心分布区仍位于内蒙古。毛乌素沙地北缘的东西向是脓疮草种群迁移过程中重要的扩散路径，且在阿拉善左旗和鄂尔多斯区域种群间的连通性最强。

关键词: 脓疮草, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 潜在适生区, 扩散路径

Abstract:

Panzerina lanata holds significant medicinal and ecological value, contributing to both human health and ecosystem balance. In this study, to investigate the suitable habitat distribution patterns of this species and its response to future climate change, we employed the MaxEnt model to simulate and predict the species’ suitable habitats and their dynamic changes under current and future (2041-2060, 2081-2100) climate change scenarios. The analysis included 86 natural distribution points and 20 environmental variables. We assessed the importance of key environmental factors by combining comprehensive contribution rates with the jackknife method. Additionally, we simulated the dispersal pathways of P. lanata using the least-cost path method using chloroplast haplotype data from 27 populations and distribution model simulation data from different periods. The results were as follows: (1) The primary environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of P. lanata are the maximum temperature of the warmest month, elevation, precipitation of the wettest month, and temperature seasonality. (2) Under current climate conditions, the potential highly suitable area for P. lanata in China covers approximately 21.04×10⁴ km², mainly distributed in Ulanqab, Ordos, and eastern Alxa in Inner Mongolia as well as northern Ningxia, northern Shaanxi, and parts of Gansu Province. (3) Under two typical climate scenarios based on concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the future (2081-2100), both total suitable areas and highly suitable areas of P. lanata showed an increasing trend, with the core distribution remaining in the Inner Mongolia. The east-west corridor along the northern fringe of the Mu Us Sandy Land emerged as a crucial dispersal pathway of P. lanata during population migration, with the strongest connectivity between populations in the Alxa Left Banner and Ordos regions.

Key words: Panzerina lanata, climate change, MaxEnt model, potential suitable distribution, dispersal pathway

赵艳芬, 王春成, 潘伯荣. 气候变化下脓疮草在中国的适宜分布区预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(10): 1851-1859.

ZHAO Yanfen, WANG Chuncheng, PAN Borong. Predicting the suitable distribution areas of Panzerina lanata in China under climate change[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(10): 1851-1859.

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代码	环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
Bio5	最暖月最高温	30.4	22.6
Bio13	最湿月降水量	26.7	39.2
Ele	海拔	20.5	15.5
Bio4	温度季节性变化	18.7	14.7
Bio15	降水量季节性变化	2.0	4.5
Bio2	平均日较差	1.0	3.3
Bio14	最干月降水量	0.6	0.2

时期	情景	总适生区	高适生区	中适生区	低适生区
当前		58.00	21.04	12.11	24.86
2041—2060年	SSP1-2.6	56.95	21.49	10.91	24.55
2041—2060年	SSP5-8.5	58.51	20.68	12.25	25.58
2081—2100年	SSP1-2.6	65.32	22.29	14.22	28.81
2081—2100年	SSP5-8.5	60.69	22.37	13.09	25.22