气候变化下新疆乌伦古河上游蒙新河狸的潜在分布变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.15

干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 509-520.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.15

气候变化下新疆乌伦古河上游蒙新河狸的潜在分布变化

苏灿霞¹^,²^,³(), 初雯雯⁴^,⁵, 撇力扎提·巴哈提别克²^,³^,⁶, 江晓珩²^,³, 陈艳秋²^,³^,⁶, 黄文溥⁵, 马驰²^,³^,⁵^,⁶, 初红军¹^,²^,³^,⁶()

1.新疆大学生命科学与技术学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830017
2.新疆林科院森林生态研究所，新疆乌鲁木齐 830002
3.新疆博斯腾湖湿地生态系统国家定位观测研究站，新疆乌鲁木齐 830002
4.北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院，北京 100083
5.新疆阿勒泰地区自然保护协会，新疆阿勒泰 836500
6.新疆大学生态与环境学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830017

收稿日期:2023-06-30 修回日期:2023-08-24 出版日期:2024-03-15 发布日期:2024-04-01
通讯作者: 初红军. E-mail: hongjunchu@vip.163.com
作者简介:苏灿霞（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事动物生态学和濒危物种保护生物学研究. E-mail: 1770794804@qq.com
基金资助:
国家林业和草原局科学技术司林草科技创新发展研究项目(2022132017);科技部第三次新疆综合科学考察专项(2021xjkk1200);富蕴县2021年中央财政林业草原-极小种群野生动植物资源拯救项目;阿勒泰地区自然保护区协会蒙新河狸云守护者项目

Potential distribution changes of Castor fiber birulai under climate changes in the upper reaches of the Ulungur River，Xinjiang

SU Canxia¹^,²^,³(), CHU Wenwen⁴^,⁵, Bahatibieke PIELIZHATI²^,³^,⁶, JIANG Xiaoheng²^,³, CHEN Yanqiu²^,³^,⁶, HUANG Wenpu⁵, MA Chi²^,³^,⁵^,⁶, CHU Hongjun¹^,²^,³^,⁶()

1. College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, Xinjiang, China
2. Institute of Forest Ecology, Xinjiang Academy of Forestry, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China
3. Xinjiang Bosten Lake Wetland Ecosystem National Positioning Observation and Research Station,Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China
4. College of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
5. Nature Conservation Association of Altay Region, Altay 836500, Xinjiang, China
6. College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, Xinjiang, China

Received:2023-06-30 Revised:2023-08-24 Online:2024-03-15 Published:2024-04-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

蒙新河狸（Castor fiber birulai）在我国仅分布于新疆阿勒泰地区的乌伦古河流域，研究蒙新河狸潜在适生区的分布对该物种的保护具有重要意义。使用2021—2022年野外实地调查收集的97个蒙新河狸家族分布位点，结合28个环境因子，利用MaxEnt模型预测不同气候情景下新疆乌伦古河上游蒙新河狸适宜生境区的分布。结果表明：影响蒙新河狸适宜生境分布的主要环境因子是距道路距离（0.1~1 km）、距水渠距离（小于3 km）、土地覆盖类型（河流、湿地与林地）、海拔（1000 m左右）、最湿月雨量（22~25 mm）与温度季节性变动系数（1500以上）的影响。当前蒙新河狸适宜生境沿乌伦古河上游河流紧密分布、区域狭窄。在2050s（ssp585气候情景）与2070s（ssp126气候情景）期间高适生区分别与当前持平或增加，未来两种气候情景较当前蒙新河狸适宜生境面积均有所降低，适宜生境降低的区域基本相似。本研究结果为气候变化影响下的蒙新河狸的保护与管理提供参考依据。

关键词: 蒙新河狸, MaxEnt模型, 适宜生境区, 乌伦古河上游

Abstract:

Castor fiber birulai is primarily distributed in the Ulungu river basin in China. Therefore, investigating the potential distribution of suitable regions is crucial for the conservation of C. f. birulai. A total of 97 distribution sites of C. f. birulai and 28 environmental factors collected from 2021 to 2022 were used to predict the distribution of suitable habitat regions for this species under different climatic scenarios using the MaxEnt model. Results showed that the distribution of suitable habitats was mainly affected by the distance from major roads (0.1-1 km), distance from water channel (within 100 m), landcover type (river, wetland, and forest), altitude (approximately 1000 m), mean temperature of wettest quarter(22-25 mm), and the standard deviation factor of seasonal temperature change (above 1500). In the 2050s (2041-2060, ssp585 climate scenario) and 2070s (2061-2080, ssp126 climate scenario), the high suitability area was the same or slightly increased compared with the current situation, and the area of suitable habitat, which decreased in the two future climate scenarios, was the same. The results of this study can provide a reference point for the protection and management of C. f. birulai under climate changes.

Key words: Castor fiber birulai, MaxEnt model, suitable habitat region, the upper Ulungur River

苏灿霞, 初雯雯, 撇力扎提·巴哈提别克, 江晓珩, 陈艳秋, 黄文溥, 马驰, 初红军. 气候变化下新疆乌伦古河上游蒙新河狸的潜在分布变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(3): 509-520.

SU Canxia, CHU Wenwen, Bahatibieke PIELIZHATI, JIANG Xiaoheng, CHEN Yanqiu, HUANG Wenpu, MA Chi, CHU Hongjun. Potential distribution changes of Castor fiber birulai under climate changes in the upper reaches of the Ulungur River，Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(3): 509-520.

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环境因子及缩写	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%	环境因子	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%
距道路距离（Dis_mr）	35.8	5.1	年平均雨量（Bio12）	0.1	0
土地覆盖类型（LC）	27.8	32.8	最干月雨量（Bio14）	0.1	0
距水渠距离（Dis_wc）	19.1	2.9	最暖季度平均雨量（Bio18）	0	0
海拔（Alt）	9.1	52.3	最干季度雨量（Bio17）	0	0.1
距水坝距离（Dis_d）	1.8	0.5	雨量变化方差（Bio15）	0	0
距居民点距离（Dis_b）	1.2	0.6	最湿季均温（Bio08）	0	0
温度季节性变动系数（Bio04）	1.1	0.8	坡度（Slo）	0	0
距农田距离（Dis_fl）	1.1	0.2	最冷季度平均雨量（Bio19）	0	0
昼夜温差与年温差比值（Bio03）	1	3	最湿季度雨量（Bio16）	0	0
距水库距离（Dis_rs）	0.8	0.6	最暖季均温（Bio10）	0	0
最湿月雨量（Bio13）	0.6	0	最冷季均温（Bio11）	0	0
昼夜温差月均值（Bio02）	0.2	0.7	最干季均温（Bio09）	0	0
最热月最高温（Bio05）	0.1	0	年均温（Bio01）	0	0
最冷月最低温（Bio06）	0.1	0.3	年温度变化范围Bio07）	0	0

环境因子	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%
距道路距离（Dis_mr）	53.2	4.2
土地覆盖类型（LC）	26	29.7
海拔（Alt）	7.5	59.1
距水渠距离（Dis_wc）	3.6	0.2
距水坝距离Dis_d）	2.6	0.6
最湿月雨量（Bio13）	1.7	0.2
温度季节性变动系数（Bio04）	1.2	1.8
距居民点距离（Dis_b）	1.1	0.4
距农田距离（Dis_fl）	0.9	0.4
距水库距离（Dis_rs）	0.7	0.6
昼夜温差月均值（Bio02）	0.6	2.8
昼夜温差与年温差比值（Bio03）	0.5	0.1
年平均雨量（Bio12）	0.4	0.1
坡度（Slo）	0.1	0
最干月雨量（Bio14）	0	0

	当前	ssp126		ssp585
	当前	2050s	2070s	2050s	2070s
非适生区面积/km²	997.34	1015.18	1009.58	999.23	1007.35
变化率/%	0	1.79	1.23	0.19	1
低适生区面积/km²	128.98	128.44	125.49	131.07	137.22
变化率/%	0	-0.42	-2.71	1.62	6.39
中适生区面积/km²	70.97	62.34	60.11	66.64	59.28
变化率/%	0	-12.16	-5.3	-6.1	-16.47
高适生区面积/km²	51.82	43.15	53.93	52.17	45.26
变化率/%	0	-16.73	4.07	0.68	-12.66

气候变化下新疆乌伦古河上游蒙新河狸的潜在分布变化

Potential distribution changes of Castor fiber birulai under climate changes in the upper reaches of the Ulungur River，Xinjiang

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