1979—2020年柴达木盆地人体舒适度指数时空变化及趋势分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.08.04

干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1300-1308.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.08.04 cstr: 32277.14.j.azr.2024.08.04

1979—2020年柴达木盆地人体舒适度指数时空变化及趋势分析

张群慧¹(), 常亮¹^,²^,³, 顾小凡¹^,²^,³, 王倩¹, 马卯楠⁴, 李小等¹, 段瑞¹, 犹香智¹

1.中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心，陕西西安 710054
2.陕西省水资源与环境工程技术研究中心，陕西西安 710054
3.中国地质调查局干旱-半干旱区地下水与生态重点实验室，陕西西安 710054
4.中国地质大学地质调查研究院，湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2023-11-18 修回日期:2024-02-21 出版日期:2024-08-15 发布日期:2024-08-22
作者简介:张群慧（1993-），女，博士，助理研究员，主要从事干旱区气候变化研究. E-mail: qunhui_zhang321@163.com
基金资助:
中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20230301);青海省环境地质勘查局科技项目(2023-ZK-01)

Spatial-temporal variations and trends in the human body comfort index in the Qaidam Basin, China, during 1979-2020

ZHANG Qunhui¹(), CHANG Liang¹^,²^,³, GU Xiaofan¹^,²^,³, WANG Qian¹, MA Maonan⁴, LI Xiaodeng¹, DUAN Rui¹, YOU Xiangzhi¹

1. Xi’an Geological Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
2. Shaanxi Province Engineering Research Centre of Water Resources and Environment, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
3. Key Laboratory for Groundwater and Ecology in Arid and Semi-arid Areas, China Geological Survey, Xi’ an 710054, Shaanxi, China
4. The Institute of Geological Survey, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China

Received:2023-11-18 Revised:2024-02-21 Published:2024-08-15 Online:2024-08-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

开展柴达木盆地气候舒适性评价对盆地人居环境、气候宜居资源开发、生态文明建设具有重要意义。本研究基于1979—2020年长时间序列地表气象数据集，利用人体舒适度指数，分析了柴达木盆地年际尺度和季节尺度人体舒适性时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）全盆地多年平均及不同季节内人体舒适度均处于增加的趋势，除夏季平原区部分区域处于舒适等级，其他均处于冷不舒适的状况；（2）人体舒适度指数变化与气温的变化具有最强的相关性，相关系数全盆地达到0.9以上，其次为风速和湿度，山区较平原区相关性较弱；（3）通过变化趋势和Hurst指数综合分析，发现气温和比湿继续增加且具有强持续性，风速继续减小且强持续性；人体舒适度指数除秋季山区持续性弱外，其他季节山区和平原区均具有强持续增加的趋势。该研究可为柴达木盆地和高寒地区气候舒适性研究提供一定参考。

关键词: 人体舒适度指数, 时空变化, 未来趋势, 气象影响因素, 柴达木盆地

Abstract:

Research on climate comfort assessment in the Qaidam Basin is of great significance for the environment, the development of liveable climate resources, and the construction of ecology and civilization. This study utilized surface meteorological datasets with a long time series from 1979-2020, as well as the index of human body comfort, to analyze the spatial-temporal changes in human comfort at the interannual and seasonal scales in the Qaidam Basin. The results indicated that (1) the human comfort level in the entire basin increased over the years and in different seasons. Most areas were cold and uncomfortable, with the exception of some areas in the summer plains at a sufficient comfort level. (2) the change in the index of human body comfort had the strongest correlation with the change in air temperature in the entire basin, with a correlation coefficient >0.9, followed by wind speed and humidity. The correlation was weaker in the mountainous areas than in the plains. (3) through comprehensive analysis of trends and the Hurst index, it was observed that the air temperature and specific humidity continued to elevate with a strong persistence, while wind speed showed the opposite trend; except for the weak persistence in autumn in some mountainous areas, the index of human body comfort showed a conspicuous and continuous increasing trend in other seasons both in the mountains and plains. This study can provide some reference for the study of climate suitability in the Qaidam Basin and other alpine regions.

Key words: the index of human body comfort, spatial-temporal distributions, future trends, meteorological factors, Qaidam Basin

张群慧, 常亮, 顾小凡, 王倩, 马卯楠, 李小等, 段瑞, 犹香智. 1979—2020年柴达木盆地人体舒适度指数时空变化及趋势分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(8): 1300-1308.

ZHANG Qunhui, CHANG Liang, GU Xiaofan, WANG Qian, MA Maonan, LI Xiaodeng, DUAN Rui, YOU Xiangzhi. Spatial-temporal variations and trends in the human body comfort index in the Qaidam Basin, China, during 1979-2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(8): 1300-1308.

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等级	I_BC	级别	体感
1	≤25	冷、不舒适	寒冷、不舒适
2	26~38		较冷、大部分人不舒适
3	39~50		清凉、少部分人不舒适
4	51~58	舒适	偏凉、大部分人舒适
5	59~70		最为舒适
6	71~75		偏热、大部分人舒适
7	76~79	热、不舒适	闷热、少部分人不舒适
8	80~85		炎热、大部分人不舒适
9	86~89		暑热、不舒适
10	≥90		酷热、很不舒适

气象要素	气温		风速		比湿
	多年平均 /℃	变化趋势 /（℃·a^-1）	多年平均 /（m·s^-1）	变化趋势 /（m·s^-1·a^-1）	多年平均 /（kg·kg^-1）	变化趋势 /（kg·kg^-1·a^-1）
全盆地	0.41	0.035	2.93	-0.013	0.003	1x10^-5
山区	-2.27	0.032	2.75	-0.013	0.003	1x10^-5
平原区	3.88	0.039	3.16	-0.013	0.003	1x10^-5

Hurst 指数	气温			风速			比湿			人体舒适度指数
Hurst 指数	全盆地	山区	平原	全盆地	山区	平原	全盆地	山区	平原	全盆地	山区	平原
春季	0.87	0.87	0.89	1	1	1	0.86	0.87	0.86	0.82	0.81	0.84
夏季	0.81	0.78	0.82	1	1	1	0.81	0.79	0.82	0.81	0.78	0.85
秋季	0.71	0.67	0.77	1	1	1	0.83	0.83	0.84	0.62	0.61	0.72
冬季	0.8	0.8	0.82	1	1	1	0.91	0.91	0.9	0.78	0.81	0.77
年平均	0.82	0.8	0.84	1	1	1	0.92	0.93	0.92	0.79	0.77	0.86

1979—2020年柴达木盆地人体舒适度指数时空变化及趋势分析

Spatial-temporal variations and trends in the human body comfort index in the Qaidam Basin, China, during 1979-2020

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