两种河道洪水演进方法在新疆山区的应用比较

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.08.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以呼图壁河流域石门水文站以上山区河道为研究区域，利用石门站2015—2019年的日流量观测数据和1978—1983年、2008—2019年的年平均流量数据，以GFS降水资料为 WRF-Hydro模型的输入，用其内置的扩散波模式、马斯京根-康吉模式两种河道演算方式进行径流模拟，对比分析模拟径流与实测径流的差异，探讨基于WRF-Hydro模型的洪水演进方法在新疆内陆干旱区的径流模拟效果。结果表明：扩散波模式模拟效果总体优于马斯京根-康吉模式的模拟效果。分析了WRF-Hydro两种河道演算模式模拟洪水的一些特征，其中扩散波模式模拟结果较好，用时较长；马斯京根-康吉模式模拟结果不太理想，但用时短。

关键词: 新疆, 内陆干旱区, 扩散波, 马斯京根-康吉, 洪水演进

Abstract:

We applied the two built-in channel routing methods of the WRF-Hydro model (i.e., the diffusive wave and the Muskingum-Cunge methods) to the upstream area of the Shimen Hydrological Station in the Hutubi River Basin and used GFS precipitation data for model input. The difference between the simulated and measured runoff was compared and analyzed using daily flow observations from 2015 to 2019 and annual average flow data from 1978-1983 and 2008-2019 at the Shimen Hydrological Station. We also discussed the simulation effect of the flood evolution method based on the WRF-Hydro model in the Xinjiang inland arid mountainous area. The results show that the simulation effect of the diffusive wave method is generally better than that of the Muskingum-Cunge method. This paper analyzes some characteristics of the two river routing models of WRF-Hydro to simulate floods. The diffusive wave method had better simulation results, but took longer, whereas the Muskingum-Cunge method had less ideal simulation results, but went faster.

Key words: Xinjiang, inland arid area, diffusive wave, Muskingum-Cunge, flood routing

汪翔, 吕海深, 朱永华, 郭晨煜. 两种河道洪水演进方法在新疆山区的应用比较[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(8): 1240-1247.

WANG Xiang, LYU Haishen, ZHU Yonghua, GUO Chenyu. Application and comparison of two channel flood routing methods in Xinjiang mountainous areas[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(8): 1240-1247.

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参数	参数含义	参数范围^[9]	率定结果
REFKDT	径流入渗参数	0.6~6.0	2.5
SLOPE	深层排水系数	0.0~1.0	0.2
MANNFAC	河道曼宁糙率乘子	0.3~2.0	0.9

模式	年份	NSE	MRE/%	R²	用时
马斯京根-康吉	2016年	0.667	3.89	0.688	112 min
	2017年	0.631	9.81	0.695
	2018年	0.638	7.41	0.678
	2019年	0.591	5.99	0.685
扩散波	2016年	0.652	3.51	0.696	296 min
	2017年	0.663	9.88	0.722
	2018年	0.665	3.49	0.678
	2019年	0.658	5.80	0.747

演进方法	洪水场次	实测洪峰 /（m³·s^-1）	预测洪峰 /（m³·s^-1）	洪峰相对误差/%	精度评价
扩散波法	1	103	105.62	2.54	√
	2	151	152.64	1.09	√
	3	89.47	96.29	7.62	-
	4	129	123.92	3.94	√
马斯京根-康吉法	1	103	103.31	0.30	√
	2	151	145.76	3.47	√
	3	89.47	97.22	8.66	-
	4	129	121.04	6.17	-