新疆土地利用强度与碳排放协调发展及多情景模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.08.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 探究生态环境基底脆弱的干旱区土地利用强度与碳排放的协同关系，对促进区域土地资源优化配置和实现“双碳”目标具有重要的现实意义。本研究基于2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年的土地利用和能源消耗数据，采用土地利用碳排放核算模型、协调度模型、未来土地利用模拟（Future Land Use Simulation，FLUS）模型和灰色预测模型，探究新疆和海拔1500 m以下区域的土地利用强度和碳排放的时空分异规律及协调发展水平，并模拟2030年4种情景下的演变趋势。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年新疆土地利用强度指数增加3.2，新疆海拔1500 m以下区域土地利用强度指数增加4.5，增长速率高于全疆增长速率。（2） 2000—2020年新疆土地利用碳排放增加1.70×10⁸ t，新疆海拔1500 m以下区域贡献率超95%，且碳排放高值区对低值区的侵蚀现象显著。（3） 2000—2020年新疆海拔1500 m以下区域协调系数始终高于全疆水平，其本质为“高开发-高排放”的粗放平衡。（4）相关结果显示2030年在生态保护情景（Ecological Protection Scenario，EPS）下，可以通过生态用地扩容来实现开发与减排平衡；而在战略发展情景（Strategic Development Scenario，SDS）下，碳排放增量最大，反映出经济建设仍依赖能源消耗。研究结果反映新疆需进一步统筹经济建设与生态保护，才能有效实现可持续发展道路。

关键词: 土地利用, 碳排放, 协调发展, FLUS模型, 新疆

Abstract:

Exploring the synergistic relationship between land-use intensity and carbon emissions in arid regions with fragile ecological foundations is of practical significance for optimizing the allocation of regional land resources and achieving “dual carbon” goals. Based on land use and energy consumption data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, this study employs a land-use carbon emission accounting model, coordination degree model, FLUS model, and Gray Forecast Model to explore the spatiotemporal differentiation and coordinated development level of land-use intensity and carbon emissions in Xinjiang and areas with elevation <1500 m above sea level. Furthermore, the study simulates evolution trends under four scenarios in 2030. The results show that:(1) From 2000 to 2020, the land-use intensity index of Xinjiang increased by 3.2, whereas in areas with elevation <1500 m above sea level, it increased by 4.5, indicating a faster growth rate in these areas. (2) From 2000 to 2020, land-use carbon emissions in Xinjiang increased by 1.70×10⁸t, with more than 95% of the total emissions originating from areas below 1500 m. Moreover, high-emission zones exhibited a significant spillover effect on adjacent low-emission zones. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the coordination coefficient between land-use intensity and carbon emissions in areas with elevation <1500 m above sea level was consistently higher than that of the whole Xinjiang, although this primarily reflected an extensive balance of “high development-high emissions”. (4) Projections for 2030 indicate that under the Ecological Protection Scenario, a better balance between development and reduction in carbon emission could be achieved through the expansion of ecological land. In contrast, the Strategic Development Scenario would yield the largest carbon emission increment, reflecting continued economic reliance on energy consumption. These findings indicate the need for Xinjiang to further integrate economic development with ecological conservation strategies to effectively achieve sustainable development.

Key words: land use, carbon emissions, coordinated development, FLUS model, Xinjiang

关毅珩, 孟梅, 杨松晓, 李大强. 新疆土地利用强度与碳排放协调发展及多情景模拟[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(8): 1501-1513.

GUAN Yiheng, MENG Mei, YANG Songxiao, LI Daqiang. Coordinated development and multi-scenario simulation of land use intensity and carbon emissions in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(8): 1501-1513.

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数据类型	数据名称	数据来源	空间分辨率
土地利用数据	2000—2020年土地利用遥感数据	中国科学院资源环境科学数据平台（https://www.resdc.cn/）	30 m×30 m
能源消耗数据	2000—2020年新疆能源消耗量	《中国能源统计年鉴》《新疆统计年鉴》	-
驱动因子数据	高程	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn/）基于ArcGIS 10.8对高程数据空间分析得出	30 m×30 m
	坡度
	坡向
	年均气温	国家青藏高原科学数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/）	1000 m×1000 m
	年降水量	国家青藏高原科学数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/）	1000 m×1000 m
	到国道距离	全国地理信息资源目录服务系统（http://www.webmap.cn/）基于ArcGIS 10.8欧氏距离分析得出	1000 m×1000 m
	到省道距离
	到高速距离
	到铁路距离
	到水系距离
	夜间灯光	中国科学院资源环境科学数据平台（https://www.resdc.cn/）	1000 m×1000 m

能源类型	折标准煤系数	碳排放系数/（t·t^-1）
原煤	0.7143 kgce·t^-1	0.7559
焦炭	0.9714 kgce·t^-1	0.8550
原油	1.4286 kgce·t^-1	0.5857
汽油	1.4714 kgce·^t-1	0.5538
煤油	1.4714 kgce·t^-1	0.5714
柴油	1.4571 kgce·t^-1	0.5921
燃料油	1.4286 kgce·t^-1	0.6185
天然气	1.3300 kgce·m^-3	0.4483
电力	0.1229 kgce·kWh^-1	0.7330

协调度区间	协调度类别	协调度类型	解释说明
0.0~0.5	严重失调	失调衰退区	土地利用强度与碳排放的增长为失调衰退状态
0.5~0.6	轻度失调	失调衰退区	土地利用强度与碳排放的增长为失调衰退状态
0.6~0.7	濒临失调	磨合协调区	土地利用强度与碳排放的增长处于调和状态
0.7~0.8	勉强协调	磨合协调区	土地利用强度与碳排放的增长处于调和状态
0.8~0.9	基本协调	协调发展区	土地利用强度与碳排放协调增长且速度较快
0.9~1.0	良好协调	协调发展区	土地利用强度与碳排放协调增长且速度较快

	自然发展情景（NDS）						战略发展情景（SDS）						粮食安全情景（FSS）						生态保护情景（EPS）
	A	B	C	D	E	F	A	B	C	D	E	F	A	B	C	D	E	F	A	B	C	D	E	F
A	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
B	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
C	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
D	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
E	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
F	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

时段及情景模拟时段	失调衰退区占比/%	磨合协调区占比/%	协调发展区占比/%	协调系数
2000—2005年	3	57	40	0.700
2005—2010年	8	43	49	0.715
2010—2015年	5	62	33	0.721
2015—2020年	6	79	15	0.732
2000—2020年	6	53	41	0.724
2020—2030年NDS	5	70	25	0.741
2020—2030年SDS	7	73	20	0.748
2020—2030年FSS	5	71	24	0.745
2020—2030年EPS	9	69	22	0.739